Tag Archive for: Archie Watson

Kentucky Derby adventure off the agenda for Brave Emperor

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Archie Watson’s Brave Emperor has been confirmed as set for travelling duty – but will stay closer to home rather than bid for Kentucky Derby glory.

The three-year-old had earned a spot in the ‘Run for the Roses’ through the European qualifying system, but having weighed up all the pros and cons, owners Middleham Park Racing have decided he will be better off in a Group Three in Germany.

Should his progress continue he will then have some lofty targets on the domestic front, including likely at Royal Ascot.

“We won’t be going there on this occasion, unfortunately,” said Middleham Park’s Tom Palin.

“We ran the numbers and as much as it is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, it would wipe out all of his prize-money and while you shouldn’t really try to make sense of this game, we did this time.

“He is on his travels, he’s going to go to Germany for a Group Three on April 28 (Krefeld, Dr Busch Memorial), that’s where he’ll run next.

“He’s got no penalties. He has won a Listed race but he’s picked up novices, handicaps and conditions races so for a serial winner like him he doesn’t have penalties so we can pick and choose.

“He should be rocking up at all the big meetings, Royal Ascot, Goodwood, so we’ll hopefully have a good summer with him.

“Trip-wise, 10 furlongs might be a question mark, but certainly nine furlongs we are of the opinion is no problem, it is almost nine furlongs in Germany and we’re confident about that.

“I can’t see why he wouldn’t see 10 out in the future. We could maybe think about something like the Hampton Court at Ascot.”

Watson keen to test Grove Road up in class

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Archie Watson will step Grove Road up in class for his next outing as the trainer bids to find out if he has a Cheltenham Festival contender on his hands.

The Mahler gelding won a bumper in December 2021 and opened his account over hurdles at Carlisle in October.

Upped to an extended three and a quarter miles in soft ground at Hereford, he gained a neck success over previously unbeaten Mr Vango, with the pair well clear of the remainder.

Now the Upper Lambourn handler will hand the Hambleton Racing-owned seven-year-old a stiffer test, with the River Don Novices’ Hurdle at Doncaster on January 28 pencilled in.

“We are very happy with him – he has come out of the race well,” said Watson.

“He has done nothing wrong under rules – he’s won his bumper and a novice hurdle, and now a novice hurdle under a penalty.

“He was going to go to Cheltenham for a Grade Two, but that meeting was called off, so it was good that they put that meeting on at Hereford. It was a good time-frame for us.

“The River Don is the next race for him now.”

Anything Grove Road achieves over hurdles is a bonus, according to Watson, whose yard has sent out eight jumps winners from just 20 runners this term.

He added: “We’ll see how he runs in either one or two of those Grade Twos before Cheltenham and then see if he ends up an Albert Bartlett horse, or whether we look towards handicaps.

“Long-term, his future was always going to be over fences. He’s a very straightforward horse, nice to deal with, nice to look after.”

Watson added: “We have had plenty of jumps winners. My wife, Brodie, trains them mostly. She gets the credit. It is a lot of fun and we have a good strike-rate.”

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2020

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Wednesday's pick was...

1.55 Lingfield : Subliminal @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Close up, pushed along and headway 2f out, ridden to chase winner when edged left inside final furlong, no extra and lost two places close home) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Premier D'Troice @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m84yds on good ground worth £3,769 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-trick after winning over 2m4f at Punchestown on his last run for Sean Thomas Doyle, ahead of scoring in a Class 4, 3 mile contest on his yard debut for Archie Watson almost 4 weeks ago at Fakenham under today's jockey Brodie Hampson.

This horse now has 2 wins and a place from 3 efforts in handicap hurdle races, including a win and a place at 3 miles.

His trainer, Archie Watson, is probably best known for his exploits on level ground, but his small string of hurdlers are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 16.56pts (+150.6% ROI) over trips of 2m4f to 3m1f, all of which were males ridden by Brodie Hampson and also include of note here...

  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 18.56pts (+206.3%) with 6 yr olds
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 19.56pts (+244.5%) finished in the first three home LTO
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 21.56pts (+359.3%) at 70-170 miles from home
  • 4/10 (40%) for 15.33pts (+153.3%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 6.22pts (+88.9%) at Evens to 4/1
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 17.59pts (+293.2%) at Class 4
  • 3/5 (60%) for 17.7pts (+354%) during February to April
  • 3/5 (60%) for 3.94pts (+78.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 11.08pts (+221.6%) with LTO winners...

...whilst 6 yr olds travelling 70-170 miles to run in Class 4 handicaps after a top 3 finish LTO are 3 from 3, including 2 LTO winners, 2 at Evs to 4/1 and 2 in Feb-April...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Premier D'Troice @ 11/4 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Betway, SkyBet & Marathon* at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Doncaster

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!