Tag Archive for: Alan King

Edwardstone and Energumene camps regrouping for March rematch

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Edwardstone will head straight to the Queen Mother Champion Chase following his narrow defeat in the Albert Bartlett Clarence House Chase.

Alan King’s Arkle hero was returning to the scene of his finest hour when having to settle for a silver medal in the rearranged Grade One.

However, there was plenty of encouragement to take from the head defeat with the nine-year-old actually edging ahead of winner Editeur Du Gite on the run-in before Gary Moore’s likeable front-runner wrestled back the advantage in the shadow of the post.

He will now swerve a previously mooted engagement in the Game Spirit at Newbury and having been made the general 7-4 joint-favourite for the Cheltenham Festival, now has his with sights fixed firmly on a return to Prestbury Park in March.

King said: “He was a little bit fresh. He started to tank down the hill and Tom (Cannon) said he just had to bring him back a wee bit. He probably used a bit of energy getting there and thought probably at the last, we would go away and win. But full marks to the winner.

“Listen, I’m happy. I needed to get this into him today to try to get him ready for the March meeting.

“He will go straight to the Festival. I didn’t want to wait for the Game Spirit, because he needed a run today and then if Newbury was abandoned I’d have been in a bit of trouble. He is perfectly fit, don’t get me wrong, but he needed this to take the edge off him.

“The Kempton race, he only got to the fifth and that did nothing for him, really.

“He was just a bit gassy today. I did stress to Tom beforehand that this was not the be all and end all today and I’m perfectly happy with him.”

Energumene faded into third following an error at the last, but Willie Mullins was far from despondent and hopes the defending champion can thrive once again on the big day in March.

Energumene during the Albert Bartlett Clarence House Chase during Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham Racecourse
Energumene during the Albert Bartlett Clarence House Chase during Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham Racecourse (David Davies/PA)

He said: “Up to the second-last we were running a really good race. The winner won on merit and I loved the way that he won after being passed and it was a great performance from the second (Edwardstone) too.

“Hopefully that run will get him used to the new English white fences, we’ve schooled over them at home but he didn’t seem as happy over them today as he did last March. You saw what he did at the first and he was a little bit long at one or two. It’s different and I didn’t expect him to be that way as he’d done plenty of schooling, but he obviously did.

“I think the winner set the pace and won, it was a great performance and I’m not going to take anything away from him. We weren’t able to beat him on the day. We just hope that there’s a different result on the next day for us.”

Big guns poised for belated Clarence House clash

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Alan King insists Saturday’s Albert Bartlett Clarence House Chase is “not the be-all and end-all” for Edwardstone as he prepares for a mouthwatering clash with Energumene at Cheltenham.

Last season’s Arkle winner made a winning return to action in the Tingle Creek at Sandown, before unseating Tom Cannon early on in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas.

Plans to give the second-season chaser more experience have been scuppered this term by ground which has either been too quick or frozen.

King is therefore grateful the Clarence House has been rescheduled from last weekend’s abandoned fixture at Ascot.

He said: “We are very appreciative that we rescheduled and we badly need to get him out, you know?

“He has been simmering away for some time. We are happy with him, but tomorrow is not the be-all and end-all. We just need to get a run into him.”

Of his Kempton mistake, King added: “He wouldn’t be the first good horse to unseat, so it happens occasionally.

“Edwardstone’s preparation has gone well, but we do need to get a run into him.”

Queen Mother Champion Chase hero Energumene has been beaten just once in nine previous starts over fences, with that defeat coming at the hands of Shishkin in this race last season.

Energumene returns to the scene of his Champion Chase success
Energumene returns to the scene of his Champion Chase success (Mike Egerton/PA)

The Willie Mullins-trained nine-year-old was last seen sauntering to a 15-length success in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork in December – a race he also won en-route to the Clarence House last season.

Energumene’s rider Paul Townend has suggested his main market rival has a few questions to answer following his Kempton faux-pas, saying in his Ladbrokes blog: “I am delighted that the Clarence House Chase was rescheduled at Cheltenham.

“It is a bigger field but Energumene is still the one you would want to ride in the race. He is the reigning champion chaser. His run at Cork in the Hilly Way Chase was a nice introduction for the season.

“He didn’t do anything flashy, just did what he needed to. This will be a bigger test as he takes on Edwardstone.

“Edwardstone is exciting but comes here off the back of an unseat which isn’t ideal, especially when you are taking on a horse like ours. Reports say he is jumping well, but in top-class races like this, you can’t come with any excuses.”

While only six runners will line up for the Grade One contest, there should be plenty of pace in the race courtesy of the Gary Moore-trained Editeur Du Gite, who was the beneficiary of Edwardstone’s blunder at Kempton, landing that two-mile contest by 13 lengths.

Moore knows the nine-year-old will have to be at the top of his game to trouble the big two, however.

He said: “He has got to reproduce something like he did at Kempton to be competitive in this race.

Editeur Du Gite will set a good gallop under Niall Houlihan
Editeur Du Gite will set a good gallop under Niall Houlihan (Nigel French/PA)

“He is entitled to be there, so hopefully he can build on what he did last time, because he will need to.

“He likes to go forward and that will be the plan again.

“The time was fairly good at Kempton, given the ground was soft. He jumped slightly left-handed last time, so going back that way round should benefit him a bit perhaps.”

Amarillo Sky has won his two starts this term for Joe Tizzard, both coming in handicaps.

Amarillo Sky will bid for a hat-trick after two handicap wins
Amarillo Sky will bid for a hat-trick after two handicap wins (John Walton/PA)

He was due to be the only horse to take on Edwardstone and Energumene at Ascot and Tizzard feels that with more runners and less prize money up for grabs this weekend, it was an opportunity missed.

“Amarillo Sky was all set to run at Ascot last weekend. We would have been one of just three runners in a race worth £175,000 there, whereas this is worth £90,000 and there are six running, so it is a less attractive proposition,” he said in his Coral blog.

“We could have gone to Sandown next weekend instead, but the owner is keen to run, which is fair enough, and we will find out where we stand with the big guns by running here.

“His future is probably in handicaps, but I can still see him finishing third or fourth here. We shouldn’t lose anything by running, and he does run well at the track, but it’s still a bit disappointing we didn’t get to run at Ascot as planned, but these things happen.”

Energumene and Edwardstone clash highlights bumper Cheltenham card

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Energumene and Edwardstone are belatedly set to lock horns at Cheltenham on Saturday after the pair featured among six runners declared for the rescheduled Albert Bartlett Clarence House Chase.

Winners of the Queen Mother Champion Chase and Arkle Trophy respectively at last season’s Cheltenham Festival, Energumene and Edwardstone were due to clash at Ascot last weekend.

But with that meeting lost to frost, their Grade One tussle will instead take place as part of a bumper nine-race card at Prestbury Park.

Joe Tizzard’s Amarillo Sky was the only other runner declared for Ascot – and he will also take his chance on Saturday, along with three other contenders for the extended two-mile contest.

Gary Moore supplemented dual course winner Editeur De Gite earlier this week, with the Venetia Williams-trained Funambule Sivola and Sizing Pottsie from David Pipe’s yard the other hopefuls.

The Paddy Power Cotswold Chase also throws up an intriguing Anglo-Irish clash, with Dan Skelton’s Protektorat opposed by the Emmet Mullins-trained Noble Yeats.

Last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup third Protektorat is the marginal favourite following his brilliant display in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November, but Grand National hero Noble Yeats should not be underestimated judged on his impressive victory in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree in December.

Lucinda Russell’s stable star Ahoy Senor bids to get his season back on track, having failed to fire in either the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby or the King George at Kempton either side of finishing third behind Noble Yeats on Merseyside.

Harry Skelton celebrates winning the Betfair Chase with Protektorat
Harry Skelton celebrates winning the Betfair Chase with Protektorat (Nigel Frech/PA)

The admirable Frodon (Paul Nicholls), Dusart (Nicky Henderson) and Sounds Russian (Ruth Jefferson) complete the six-strong field.

The roof could come off the grandstand if Paisley Park can land a secure a fourth successive victory in the Dahlbury Stallions At Chapel Stud Cleeve Hurdle.

Emma Lavelle’s pride and joy may be getting on in years at the age of 11, but proved the fire still burns bright by landing a third Long Walk Hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day.

The veteran faces six rivals on his return to the Cotswolds, including Jeremy Scott’s Dashel Drasher and the Nicholls-trained Gelino Bello.

Scriptwriter bids to complete his hat-trick for Milton Harris in the opening JBC Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle, while Cheltenham Festival hero Delta Work heads a 15-strong field for the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase.

Pembroke (Skelton) and Henri The Second (Nicholls), meanwhile, are two of the leading contenders for the Grade Two Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle.

King mapping out Festival route for Edwardstone

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Alan King is keen to keep Edwardstone busy before a crack at the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase.

Last season’s Arkle winner had a delayed start to the season due to the warm autumn, with planned appearances in the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham and in a handicap at Ascot scuppered due to quick ground.

When he finally made a belated return to action, he powered clear of Greaneteen for a nine-length success in the Tingle Creek at Sandown.

However, he then unseated Tom Cannon at the fifth fence when a 2-5 favourite in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas.

His next outing will be in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot on January 21 before he potentially heads to Newbury on February 11 for the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase.

King said: “Edwardstone will go to Ascot on the 21st (January). He schooled the other morning and he was great.

“I think he was just too fresh at Kempton. It was just one of those things.

“So, we will go Ascot and we could easily slot into the Game Spirit. He is a horse who improves for racing.

“The ground has been a nightmare. From the end of last season the aim was to start him off in the Shloer at Cheltenham, have one run and then go to the Tingle Creek.

“He is very fresh at the moment and a few more runs won’t do him any harm.”

Clarence House Chase target next for Edwardstone

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Edwardstone will run in the Clarence House Chase at Ascot on January 21 following his mishap in the Desert Orchid Chase over Christmas.

Alan King is keen to keep last season’s Arkle winner busy, given he only got as far as the fifth fence before unseating Tom Cannon.

Having been thwarted in attempts to run him at Cheltenham and Ascot before his Tingle Creek success, King feels he needs plenty of racing to stay happy.

“He’s 100 per cent. He bounced out the following morning,” King told Nick Luck’s Daily Podcast.

“He’s been cantering away, he schooled this morning, jumped six fences and was foot-perfect.

“He was foot-perfect jumping around Kempton – after he’d got rid of Tom. I just think he was a little bit fresh last week since the Tingle Creek.

“We hadn’t done a lot with him to try to get him there in good form but I just think he was a little bit gung-ho.

“Anyway, he’s going to do plenty of work and hopefully he’ll head to Ascot on the 21st.

“He’s very full of himself, quite boisterous. Ascot will be the plan all being well and we’ll look at the Game Spirit in between (Ascot and Cheltenham).”

Alan King hoping to blown away once again by Edwardstone

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Tingle Creek hero Edwardstone bids to make it back-to-back wins at Kempton’s Christmas Festival in the Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase.

Alan King’s stable star won the Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase on the corresponding card 12 months ago before going on to claim Arkle glory at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

With intended comeback runs at Cheltenham and Ascot scuppered by unsuitable ground, Edwardstone was thrown in at the deep end on his belated reappearance at Sandown, but could hardly have been more impressive in beating defending champion Greaneteen and Shishkin.

The eight-year-old turns out a little over three weeks later for a race King sees as an ideal stepping-stone with a return to Cheltenham in mind.

“Edwardstone has come out of Sandown great, and this race fits in perfectly time-wise as it will enable him to then have a break through January before returning for his Queen Mother Champion Chase prep in the Game Spirit at Newbury in February,” the Barbury Castle handler said on his website.

Reflecting on his Tingle Creek triumph, he added: “It really did blow me away. I knew that Edwardstone would run well, but wasn’t expecting a performance like that first time out.

“He travelled and jumped super, but it was the manner in which he shot clear after the second last that took my breath away. It gave me a real buzz.”

The clear danger to Edwardstone is Nube Negra, who claimed this Grade Two prize two years ago for Dan and Harry Skelton when he defeated Altior.

Nube Negra on his way to winning the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham
Nube Negra on his way to winning the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham (David Davies/Jockey Club)

The Spanish-bred gelding was due to meet Edwardstone in Cheltenham’s Shloer Chase in November, but with King pulling out his charge Nube Negra predictably outclassed his remaining rivals.

“Our horse is really well. We beat Altior over two miles round here, so we’re not inconvenienced by the track and the going that day was officially soft. There’s not a lot to dislike really,” said Dan Skelton.

“It’s going to be hard to beat Edwardstone, we know that, but we’re happy with our horse.”

The Venetia Williams-trained Funambule Sivola finished best of the rest behind Energumene in last season’s Champion Chase, but was a long way behind Edwardstone when last of six in the Tingle Creek.

Mister Fisher (Nicky Henderson), Sizing Pottsie (David Pipe), Dolos (Paul Nicholls) and Editeur Du Gite (Gary Moore) complete the line-up.

Just four runners are set to go to post for the Ladbrokes Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase, with Harry Fry’s Boothill setting the standard on his second placed finish to the exciting Jonbon in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase earlier in the month.

Fry told Sky Sports Racing: “He’s had a really good campaign so far and we were pleased to see Jonbon wasn’t among the entries for the Wayward Lad!

“We weren’t a match for Jonbon in the Henry VIII, but he’s an exceptional talent and I don’t think we were disgraced in finishing eight lengths behind him in second.

“There’s some other good novices in the race on Tuesday, so we’ve go to turn up and bring our best form to the table for sure, but he’s taking his races really well and seems to be on an upward curve again now and running with confidence. We’re looking forward to running him.”

The Skeltons are represented by Lac De Constance, who was three from three over hurdles and made a smart start to his chasing career at this track last month.

“It’s a step up in grade around a track that we’re comfortable at and on ground we’re happy with,” Skelton added.

“I’m very happy with him and happy to have a go. If we were to get beat we would step up to two-and-a-half, but I’m not thinking that way.

“With the way the ground is, I’d like to think he’s a very big player.”

Aucunrisque winning over hurdles at Wincanton
Aucunrisque winning over hurdles at Wincanton (David Davies/PA)

Chris Gordon’s Aucunrisque has a bit to find on ratings, but takes his chance due to a lack of suitable alternative options.

“I’ve had him in two or three races since his last run and everything kept getting cancelled. I popped him in here because there wasn’t really anything else that floated by boat at the moment,” said Gordon.

“It’s not normally my kind of style, but with races getting cancelled and one thing and another it’s pushed me a little bit towards running in a race like this.

“Hopefully we can pick up a bit of prize-money if we’re lucky.”

Glory And Fortune from Tom Lacey’s yard completes the quartet.

Quinn hoping for clear run with Safe Voyage

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Safe Voyage bids to get back to winning ways in a “spicy” renewal of the Sky Bet City of York Stakes.

The consistent John Quinn-trained seven-year-old, who won the Surrey Stakes at the Derby meeting on his penultimate outing, finished a close-up fourth in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last time out.

He met trouble in running there – and while Quinn does not think that cost victory over Space Blues, it would still have been a much better run on paper than it initially looks.

“He had a few traffic problems at Goodwood, but it wasn’t the difference between winning and losing – he might have been second or third,” said the Malton trainer.

“I’ve been very happy with him since, and this looks like the right race for him – in saying that, it’s a spicy affair.

“They had the rain Wednesday night, and that will stop the ground from getting too firm. As long as there’s still a bit of juice in it, he’ll be fine.”

Safe Voyage will need to be at his best on Saturday to beat William Haggas’ mare One Master, who overcame her own troubled passage to win at Goodwood.

Roger Varian’s San Donato drops in trip, having made a big move in the Sussex Stakes only to tire late on, and last year’s Gimcrack winner Threat is another with solid form to his name.

In the Sky Bet And Symphony Group Strensall Stakes, David O’Meara’s 2019 Queen Anne winner Lord Glitters sets the standard.

Charlie Hills’ Pogo arrives on the back of a career-best effort when third in the Prix d’Ispahan, while Varian fields two likely contenders in Prince Eiji and Zabeel Prince.

Royal Hunt Cup winner Dark Vision is there also, as is Alan King’s Beringer, who re-opposes after going down narrowly to Mark Johnston’s four-year-old at Pontefract on his first run since chasing home Lord North in the Cambridgeshire.

“He ran a nice race on his comeback at Pontefract the other day and he’s trained well since,” said King.

“This is another step up for him. But he isn’t a million miles behind on ratings, and I hope he’ll run well.

“A bit of ease in the ground will suit him.”

King also has a lively contender in the Sky Bet Melrose Handicap in Midnights Legacy, winner of his last three.

The Barbury Castle trainer said: “He’s a progressive horse, and I think the step up in trip will suit him.

“He was good at Haydock last time, and this race has always been the plan.”

Hughie Morrison’s Kipps has the assistance of Ryan Moore – with Richard Hannon’s Mambo Nights, winner of all his three races this season, carrying top weight.

True Self tries again as Mullins eyes second Ebor victory

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Willie Mullins seeks a second win in the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap when he saddles True Self in the York feature.

The Closutton trainer struck in the 2009 renewal with the mare Sesenta, a 25-1 shot under then 5lb claimer Gary Carroll when she got the better of Aidan O’Brien’s hotpot Changingoftheguard.

Mullins’ representative this year was beaten only three lengths into sixth place 12 months ago, before going on a round-the-world tour – which included trips to Australia, where she won a Group Three, Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia.

Since returning to Ireland, True Self has finished a creditable fourth behind the top-class Magical in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and a slightly disappointing sixth in the Munster Oaks at Cork.

However, 10lb lower than 12 months ago, the seven-year-old is expected to put up a bold showing on her return to the Knavesmire, where she will be ridden by Jason Watson.

Mullins’ assistant David Casey said: “Hopefully she’ll run well. She ran well in the race last year when things didn’t really go her way during the race, and she seems in very good form at home.

“She ran a good race in the Group One behind Magical, and Cork probably came a bit quick after that.

“We’ve put a tongue-tie on her at home, and it seems to have improved her – she’s been working very well this week.

Mustajeer was an impressive Irish winner last year
Mustajeer was another Irish winner of the Ebor last year (Clint Hughes/PA)

“If she brings her A-game, she should run a big race.”

True Self is one of two Irish challengers, along with Joseph O’Brien’s Pondus.

The raiding party is bidding to win the race for a fourth time in the last seven years following the recent triumphs of Johnny Murtagh’s Mutual Regard (2014), Tony Martin’s Heartbreak City (2016) and the Ger Lyons-trained Mustajeer (2019).

Alan King fires a twin assault, with the well-fancied Trueshan joined by Royal Ascot-winning stable companion Scarlet Dragon.

Trueshan was last seen claiming a Listed prize at Haydock, while Scarlet Dragon finished seventh in the Old Newton Cup on Merseyside – having previously claimed top honours in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at the Royal meeting.

“Trueshan is in good order, and I think the step up in trip will suit him,” said King.

“He was good at Haydock a few weeks ago – we’ve been happy with him since, and I was pleased to see the rain come earlier in the week.

“It’s a very competitive race, obviously. But he’s progressive, and I hope he’ll run well.

“Scarlet Dragon was tremendous at Royal Ascot, and I thought he ran well at Haydock in ground that would have been much too deep for him.

“I see we’re drawn widest of all – but we’ll slot in behind anyway, so it’s probably not the end of the world for him.

“He is his own man, so it just depends what sort of mood he’s in. I think a mile and six is within his compass.”

Nicky Henderson views ground conditions as key to the chances of his high-class dual-purpose mare Verdana Blue.

Nicky Henderson's Verdana Blue prefers quick conditions
Nicky Henderson’s Verdana Blue prefers quick conditions (Jeff Holmes/PA)

The 2018 Christmas Hurdle heroine was mowed down late by King’s Coeur De Lion in the Ascot Stakes on her latest outing.

Henderson said: “I’m told the forecast is for dry and windy weather and sunshine, which would be great.

“She ran very well at Ascot. It was probably all that rain they got on the Monday night that caught her out, and maybe the last couple of furlongs as well.

“We’re coming back six furlongs in trip. But she loves two miles on fast ground over hurdles at Kempton, so a mile and six on the Flat should be perfect.

“If the forecast is right and the ground is good, I’d be hopeful.”

Other leading contenders include Roger Varian’s Fujaira Prince, Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Deja and the William Haggas-trained pair of Pablo Escobarr and Monica Sheriff.

Pablo Escobarr won the Group Three Glorious Stakes at Goodwood last month, while Monica Sheriff is unbeaten in her last five starts, but the pair have been drawn in stalls 20 and 21 respectively.

Haggas said: “They’re drawn 41 between them – how’s your luck? It’s a disaster, but there you go, there’s nothing I can do about the draw.

“They’re both very well.”

Smart all-weather performer Stargazer is a big outsider for Phil Kirby, having been sidelined since winning at Newcastle in April of last year.

“It’s a big ask for his first start back, but he seems well and we’ve got to start somewhere,” said Kirby.

“We had planned to go for the Northumberland Plate, but he had a small setback when we were getting him ready, and this was the next natural race for him.

“I’m sure he’ll improve for the run. We’ll make a start and see where we are.”

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2020

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Monday's pick was...

3.00 Southwell : Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Dwelt soon led narrowly, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m2f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, on what looks as poor a day of racing that I've seen for some time. I'm going to keep it really simple with a 7 yr old gelding who has made the frame in all bar one of his six efforts over fences, winning once along the way. He stays much further than this, doesn't mind soft ground, he's dropping in class and has been eased 2lb by the assessor since finishing 3rd LTO 39 days ago.

All of which suggests he should be fine with race conditions for his first visit to Doncaster, where trainer Alan King's chasers are 9 from 32 (28.1% SR) for 15.67pts (+49% ROI) over the last five years, including...

  • 9/31 (29%) for 16.67pts (+53.8%) from males
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23.46pts (+123.5%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 7/20 (35%) for 3.33pts (+16.65%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 20.84pts (+109.7%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 6/24 (25%) for 18.89pts (+78.7%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.53pts (+81.7%) in Jan/Feb
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.66pts (+40.7%) on Gd to Soft in case the going eases
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.71pts (+34.2%) on soft ground...

...whilst 6-7 yr old males sent off shorter than 5/1 after a top 3 finish LTO are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 2.29pts (+28.6% ROI), all in the December to February period, 2 from 2 on Good to Soft and 1 from 1 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 8.05am Tuesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms were showing a movement towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!