Stat of the Day, 31st January 2020
Thursday's pick was...
2.45 Ffos Las : Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Chased leader to 7th, weakened after 14th, tailed off and well beaten)
Friday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG
...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Good to Soft ground worth £4,809 to the winner...
Why?...
He might be 12 yrs old now, but he still looks to have at least one more win in him, based off his last two runs where he made the frame in tougher contests than this and on worse ground. Harry Reed steered him in those last two runs and he's on board again today as they go off the same mark as LTO.
This old boy is 5/22 (22.7% SR) in handicap chases, a decent return and he's hardly done the miles you'd expect of a 12 yr old and of those 22 runs, he has achieved the following strike rates under today's conditions...
- 44.4% after 11-25 days off track (4 from 9)
- 40% over trips of 2m½f to 2m4f (4/10)
- 38.5% at odds of 4/1 and shorter (5/13)
- 33.3% in January (2/6)
- 31.25% off a mark of 99-110 (5/16)
- 27.8% in fields of 5-9 runners (5/18)
- 22.2% in cheekpieces (4/18)
- 21% at Class 4 (4/19)
...and in 6-9 runner, Class 4 handicap chases at 4/1 and shorter wearing cheekpieces over 2m½f to 2m4f off marks of 100-110 after 11-25 days rest, he is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 6.66pts (+166.4% ROI).
Trainer Tristan Davidson's horses are going well, having won 4 of 15 (26.7% SR) for 6.49pts (+43.3% ROI) over the last 2 months and he's a rare breed in that if you had followed him religiously for the last two years, you'd have made yourself a nice pot of money.
Not many trainers (especially at this level) are profitable to follow blindly over any extended period of time, but in the last two years backing Tristan's horses would have given you 35 winners from just 134 runners with the 26.1% strike rate yielding a level stake profit at betfair SP of 75.2pts at a cracking ROI of some 56.1%. Under some of today's conditions, those runners are...
- 34/119 (28.6%) for 86.7pts (+72.9%) in races worth £8k or less
- 32/106 (30.2%) for 87.5pts (+82.5%) in fields of 6-13 runners
- 23/102 (22.6%) for 18pts (+16.8%) as Tristan's only runner of the day
- 22/64 (34.4%) for 97.6pts (+152.4%) when racing 35 to 95 miles from home
- 21/69 (30.4%) for 47.9pts (+69.4%) in NH contests
- 21/64 (32.8%) for 39.5pts (+61.7%) were placed LTO
- 17/58 (29.3%) for 45.5pts (+78.4%) with Harry Reed in the saddle
- and 12/38 (31.6%) for 31.1pts (+81.8%) at Class 4
...whilst with just one or two runners on the day, Tristan's NH runners set just 35 to 95 miles from home to compete in 6-13 runner contests for £8k or less are 15/29 (51.7% SR) for 71.2pts (+245.7% ROI), including...
- 11/21 (52.4%) for Harry Reed
- 8/15 (53.3%) at Class 4
- 6/14 (42.9%) were placed LTO
- 7/12 (58.3%) for Harry at C4
- 5/10 (50%) for Harry with LTO placers
- 3/7 (42.9%) for C4 runners placed LTO
- and 3/6 (50%) for Harry at C4 on LTO placers...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 8.05am Friday morning from Bet365, BetVictor & Spreadex (but please check your BOG status first, latter is non-BOG) and then more widely available by 9.00am. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Catterick
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.
Cheers Chris. Be interesting to see how the dynamic of losing some potential value on early selections plays out against greater market liquidity and increased possibility of getting BOG benefits like today with the new timing of the tip. That left me level on a month which has been all over the place for me.
Paul
I think getting the BOG is currently the main issue.
Beautiful, Chris, and that drift, too. Thanks very much.
5/1 was a crazy price and raises two issues about the timing of the posts.
1. it wouldn’t have been a pick at 9/4 last night.
2. we don’t get the BOG drift the night before either.
Cheers Chris.
Being limited to Betfair nowadays, I suppose I was a bit lucky to get half a point on at 4/1 and the other half at 5/1? I confess when I put the bet on that I didn’t really expect it to be filled. I like surprises like that – thank you!
Having penned that, I see BSP was even higher. And there I was, for all of two minutes, thinking I’d done really well. Sigh. Ah well, first world problems….. and a win is a win, after all. I’m still grateful! 🙂
Well done, thanks!! Another bit of a drift & win routine is always welcome. As you say this is where day-of-race BOG becomes a big issue.