Stat of the Day, 16th March 2020
Saturday's pick was...
4.00 Fontwell : Jimmy @ 3/1 BOG PU at 7/4 (Chased leaders on inside, switched outside before 4th, reminders and not travel well after next, reluctant and dropped out quickly after 9th, soon pulled up)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Calle Malva @ 4/1 BOG
...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Mares Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on heavy ground worth £4,289 to the winner...
Why?...
This 5 yr old mare has won one of her four starts to date, another Class 4 hurdle on heavy ground at relatively nearby Hexham, so conditions won't be too unfamiliar today. That win is the only win recorded by any of the runners in this contest, as her six rivals have only mustered a combined 4 places from 21 runs to date.
Regular jockey Blair Campbell is the saddle again today, once more hoping to use his 3lb claim effectively enough to land another Kelso winner for trainer Lucinda Russell, who is 30 from 117 (25.6% SR) for 60.5pts (+51.7% ROI) with horses sent off in the Evens to 8/1 price bracket in handicaps at this venue since the start of 2015. These include of relevance today...
- 28/103 (27.2%) for 67.1pts (+65.1%) at Classes 3 & 4
- 18/74 (24.3%) for 46.7pts (+63.2%) with horses unplaced last time out
- 18/74 (24.3%) for 33.6pts (+45.3%) at Class 4
- 18/56 (32.1%) for 54.7pts (+97.6%) in fields of 6-8 runners
- 14/43 (32.6%) for 29.9pts (+69.5%) during March to May
- 13/45 (28.9%) for 46.1pts (+102.4%) with a jockey claiming 3-6lbs
- 12/36 (33.3%) for 41.3pts (+114.6%) over hurdles
- 9/31 (29%) for 9.6pts (+31%) on heavy ground
- 8/18 (44.4%) for 19.9pts (+110.8%) in March
- 7/20 (35%) for 17.7pts (+88.5%) with Blair Campbell in the saddle
- and 7/16 (43.75%) for 31pts (+193.9%) with female runners...
...whilst risking diluting the data too far...those unplaced LTO and now running at Class 3/4 in fields of 4-7 in March are 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 15.66pts (+174% ROI) profit...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Calle Malva @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Monday with plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Kelso
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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