Stat of the Day, 13th March 2020
Thursday's pick was...
3.45 Doncaster : Premier D'Troice @ 11/4 BOG PU at 2/1 (Raced wide and keen, tracked leader until 4th, chased leaders, lost place and struggling 6th, weakened quickly before 4 out, tailed off and pulled up before 2 out)
Friday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Gorgeous General @ 7/2 BOG
...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...
Why?...
Well, today's pick contains more than a passing nod to the Geegeez Horses for Courses report, that highlighted the potential suitability of the task ahead for this 5 yr old gelding who comes here in great form having won both his last two outings.
Both wins were here at Southwell, both in Class 6 handicaps and both under today's jockey, William Carver who again claims a useful 5lbs. The only difference between the two wins was that the first (30 days ago) was over 5f, whilst 16 days ago it was a 6f course and distance win.
With so much in common between those wins and today's contest, I'd fully expect similar tactics to employed here and with a draw in the higher half of numbers, the Geegeez Pace/Draw tab is quite enlightening...
Now back to the horse's suitability today...
He comes here not only in good recent form, but also boasting a record of 6 wins from 16 (37.5% SR) for profits of 12.92pts (+180.8% ROI) in A/W handicaps since the start of 2019 and having made the frame a total of 12 times (75%) in those races, he really has been a model of consistency with a string of results that include of relevance today...
- 6/15 940%) for 13.92pts (+92.8%) at Class 6
- 6/14 (42.9%) for 14.92pts (+106.6%) without headgear
- 5/11 (45.5%) for 6pts (+54.5%) here at Southwell
- 5/10 (50%) for 14.31pts (+143.1%) after less than 3 weeks rest
- 5/8 (62.5%) for 9pts (+112.5%) under jockey William Carver
- 5/8 (62.5%) for 9pts (+112.5%) at odds of Evens to 4/1
- 3/5 (60%) for 11.88pts (+237.6%) after a win LTO
- and 2/5 (40%) for 2.43pts (+48.6%) going left handed ie over course and distance...
...whilst sent off at Evens to 4/1 at Class 6 here at Southwell without headgear under William Carver after less than three weeks rest, he is 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 7.39pts (+147.8% ROI) including 2 from 3 after a win LTO and 2 from 2 over this 6f course and distance.
Trainer Liam Mullaney is another of those "small string trainers" that I turn to quite often for SotD and aside from today's pick, he has done well with his other runners at this venue, albeit from a very small sample size. Numerically we're looking at 4 winners from 6 (66.6% SR) for 8.67pts (+144.5% ROI) with his other Class 6 runners here at Southwell that were sent off shorter than 5/1 since 2015.
Of those six runners, he is...
- 3/3 (100%) for 5.62pts (+187.5% ROI) with males
- 3/3 (100%) for 5.62pts (+187.5% ROI) with those aged over 4
- 2/2 (100%) for 4.24pts (+212%) with LTO winners
...and 2/2 (100%) for 4.24pts (+212%) with make LTO winners aged over 4. This admittedly small number of runners allied to the performance of today's pick should be enough to suggest a decent run for our money here...
...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Gorgeous General @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet at 8.05am Friday with plenty of 10/3 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Southwell
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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