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How To Select The Right Races To Bet In, Where Value Is Almost Assured, Every Single Time...
Take just a few minutes to read through this letter and discover how Geegeez Gold can improve your betting, even if you typically struggle to choose the right races in which to play...
Dear fellow racing and betting enthusiast,
If you bet on British or Irish racing, but feel like you should be doing better, take five minutes to read this page. Forgive the cliche, but it could be the most important five minutes of your betting life...
My name is Matt Bisogno, and I’m a keen horse racing fan, punter, and race horse owner. I also sit on the respected Horseracing Bettors’ Forum, a group working to improve the appeal of betting on our great sport.
I’ve been building my reputation online since 2006, firstly with a site called NagNagNag and, since 2008, at geegeez.co.uk.
Punters in the dark…
Back when I started online, ten years ago, my betting was hamstrung by the information available to me. I mean, have a look at this pretty standard image of a race card from a daily newspaper. What does it actually tell us?
Next to nothing. In fact, if anything it is designed to mislead or, at best, to lead us to the most obvious horse with the most deflated market price.
The result of that? Certain losses in the mid- to long run. The worst thing is that this image doesn't come from ten years ago, but from right now.
And the cards on track are no better. Take a look at this, for one of the flat season’s most important races…
Here, we have a little ‘blurb’ on each runner, and a star rating is provided.
But guess what? The five star pick is the short-priced favourite, and the three four star horses are the next three in the betting. Erm, great, thanks. For nothing.
Then there’s the trade paper. Actually, don’t get me started on the trade paper. All I’ll say is that a newspaper and supporting website whose primary source of income is derived from bookmaker advertising is probably not invested in providing punters with the best chance of winning.
My frustration got the better of me…
In the end, my frustration with these sub-standard offerings got the better of me. I started to subscribe to various online tools. I used one site for trainer statistics, another for pace and run style information, and a third for the actual form.
The cost of these subscriptions came to a whopping £206 a month. That’s £2,472 a year. Before I’d even had a bet!
Now don’t get me wrong, some of that lowdown was golden and the money I invested on form tools enabled me to make more of a profit from my horse racing betting.
But I was frustrated by the fact that I had to pay so much… and that others would never be able to afford the sort of information I had.
At this point you’d be forgiven for thinking, “Well Matt, why didn’t you just crack on with your advantage over pretty much everybody else?”
Actually, if you’re new to geegeez.co.uk, you’d be forgiven for thinking that. Those familiar with the site will know that my ethos has always been that betting should be fun and profitable, and that the two are most certainly not mutually exclusive. I’ve also always believed that the best information does not necessarily have to be the most expensive.
(And that hasn't always sat well with some service providers in the racing space, who would have you believe that they employ an army of highly skilled race readers picking up every nuance of the action. They haven't, and they don't).
Enough was enough…
Anyway, in late 2012, I decided enough was enough. I would build my own race cards and form tools, and early in 2013 the mission began.
As you can imagine, such a project is no small undertaking, and it would only be worth the time and effort if we could build the very best race cards in Britain.
My team and I wanted to create a formbook that was
>> Time-saving
>> Innovative
>> Easy to use
>> Feature rich
>> Visual (a picture paints a thousand words, right?)
Now, almost four years later, I think we’ve achieved that lofty ambition. More importantly, our subscribers feel the same. This short video walks through the cards, though I recommend reading the whole of this letter first and then coming back to the recording:
Racecards are just the tip of the iceberg…
But racecards are just the tip of the iceberg. In fact, they’re not my first port of call in my form study. They’re not even the second!
You see, I believe that the traditional way of looking at form – a string of numbers to the left of a horse’s name, and the presentation of trainer and jockey to its right – leads us to ‘top of the market’ conclusions.
In other words, when we see a horse with a ‘1’ for its last run, and when that horse is trained by a top trainer and ridden by a top rider, it becomes hard for us to see it being beaten. And it may not be beaten.
Sadly, though, the price is almost always shorter than it should be in such cases. In fact, most last time winners are over-bet. Most runners from top stables are over-bet, and most horses piloted by top jockeys are over-bet. Putting those three together means it is impossible to win in the long-term.
Think I'm wrong? In the 18 months from the beginning of 2015, 18,870 last time out winners raced in UK and Ireland. 15,384 were beaten (81.53%) and the return on investment was -19.27%. Or -3,635.91 points. Ouch. Nope, that's just not a good way to bet.
And yet, these are the sort of situations that people reading newspaper or racetrack racecards are pushed towards day in, day out. They are, in effect, being forced into very muggy bets.
That sort of setup has to be all wrong, doesn’t it?
The key is to look beyond the obvious…
The key to making a profit from racing – and to having fun whilst doing it – is to look beyond the obvious. I don’t mean randomly picking 20/1 shots in the blind hope of hitting the bullseye.
Rather, I’m talking about considering ALL relevant form in a race: the course, distance, going, and class form for every horse in the race. Sounds like hard work, right?
It certainly used to be. Before we redefined it. Geegeez Gold, the totally imaginative (ahem) name I gave our racecards and form tools, has a range of tools and visualisations designed to give you, the punter, more knowledge in less time.
One of the most popular data visualisations (big phrase, meaning 'picture'!) is a unique at-a-glance form profile of every horse in a given race. We have called it Instant Expert, for what will be obvious reasons. Here’s a recent example:
The image above shows the entire relevant form history for all runners in this Group 2 contest from the Curragh. The view displays place form in this case, and is ordered by place percent in the class.
To understand the Instant Expert, you simply need to know that green is good, amber is all right, and red is not so hot. Grey? No data (i.e. a horse hasn't run under that condition before).
£1,577.30 for understanding how traffic lights work…
As you can see from the image above, in this race there were three horses with ‘line of green’ profiles (or nearly in the case of Sovereign Debt). The result?
Incredibly the trifecta paid over 1,575/1 on this race. Even if you’d ‘only’ backed the winner, he paid almost 25/1.
This is by no means a rarity for Instant Expert, a form view that is the first port of call for many Gold subscribers every day.
Its beauty, aside from its ability to read a race better than the market more often than not, is in the speed with which an opinion can be formed. The horses in the race above had collectively run 159 times in Britain and Ireland previously.
The entire relevant form history is distilled into that first image. The key here is that we are looking at relevant form. Who cares if a horse is three from three at a mile and a quarter if today’s contest is seven furlongs? Or if a horse has won twice on heavy ground if today’s race is on good to firm? It’s not really relevant.
Often it is misleading, and often it is what determines the favourite in a race, especially if those runs were in the recent form history.
Instant Expert is a snapshot overview offering X-ray insight into the form book. And for many Gold users, that is as deep as they want – and need – to go.
But for those of us who like to delve a little further, there is so much more in this Swiss Army Knife of a formbook. Our 'deep dive' form tool is called Full Form Filter. As well as displaying the full UK and Irish form history of horses, trainers, jockeys and sires, users can - as the name suggests - also filter the overall form by any of a broad array of options.
Here’s how it looks:
This is a highly configurable tool for those with more time, or to make some final checks on horses shortlisted by Instant Expert. And there’s still more, much more, to help find winners.
Races on the flat are often determined almost before the start by the stall positions horses are allocated. Gold’s industry-leading draw tool allows users to search by different going ranges, field sizes, and by advertised (i.e. racecard number) and actual (i.e. after accounting for non-runners) draw.
Results can be displayed by win or place percentage, by impact value or by actual vs expected. (These last two are measures of statistical significance where are score greater than 1.0 implies a better than average performance).
Don't worry if that sounds complex. All you really need to know is better than 1.00 is good, worse than 1.00 is not so good 🙂
If that all seems very complicated, it’s not. And, importantly, you don’t need to use this to start making your betting on racing pay.
The most overlooked angle in British racing?
One angle which I’d really encourage you to get to grips with, though, is that of pace. There are countries in the world, including America, where no self-respecting punter would ever open their wallet to wager without understanding how the race is likely to pan out.
Gold’s pace tab is incredibly revealing in this regard, and has recently undergone a significant upgrade.
Previously, we displayed a table of scores that showcased which horses were likely to lead and which would be held up. It looked like this:
In fact, it still does look like that. In the above example, we can see that Bronze Beau, with a score of 16 comprised of four 4’s, has led in each of his last four races. At the other end of the spectrum, Flicka’s Boy and Oriental Splendour have both been held up in three of their last four races.
Understanding how the pace is likely to be – individual pace horses, the overall shape of the race, and where in the draw the pace is located – is super-important. But putting it into historical context is also highly valuable.
What I mean is that it’s all very well knowing that Bronze Beau likes to lead, but that may not help us if horses that lead at the track where this race is run (Beverley, in this example) have a poor historical record.
Gold's ‘pace blobs’ shine a torch on all races since 2009 over each course and distance, and present their findings in a super easy to consume format. Here’s how they look:
We can clearly see that horses which led over five furlongs at Beverley have an incredible 25% win record, and that more than half of them make the frame. In that context, Bronze Beau’s habit of making the running looks a lot more interesting!
And, as you can see, you don’t need to be Einstein to figure this out. Everything is colour coded in the traffic light format, with further detail both in the blobs and in the table directly underneath.
I don’t ever bet a race without checking this information, and nor should you. It is that crucial.
These are the main building blocks of the Gold formbook, but there is still a lot more.
For instance, we have been developing a suite of reports to help you hone in on the day’s under-the-radar contenders. These range from the fairly basic – like trainer and jockey (and trainer/jockey combination) form – to the less obvious, such as Trainer Change, Trainer Handicap 1st Run, and Trainer 2yo First Time.
Each report can be filtered to your tastes, and has a selection of different data ranges through which to view the information. Here are some examples of the reports to give you a feel...
As you can see, Geegeez Gold is a different kind of race card and form tool: designed and built by punters for punters.
Since we started back in early 2013, we’ve welcomed over 8,000 users to our racecards. For many, it has revolutionised their betting.
“What’s the damage?”
By now, you're probably wondering how much it costs to be a part of the Gold community.
Geegeez Gold costs just £30 per month - less than a pound a day - and represents excellent value when set next to comparable (but typically inferior) products which cost as much as £106/month.
And if you already know you're going to love Gold, or are excited by what is possible in your trial, then I’ve got a really special offer for you. Commit to a year’s subscription and you’ll pay just £249 for a full twelve month’s access.
Compare that £20.75 a month with the £206 I was paying monthly a few years ago, and the £100+ monthly fees some still charge, and I hope you’ll agree that this is a very (very!) big value offering. In fact, you can have full unfettered access to Gold for one year for about the same price I was paying for one month!
Like I've said already, I’m totally committed to making the best tools as affordable as possible. The subscription fee to Geegeez Gold is a steal. And if you don’t believe me, here’s what Gold subscribers have to say:
We're very proud of the 'Pacman' pie charts showing how happy Gold subscribers are.
But how will you know if Gold is for you? Well, by now I hope that you have a pretty good idea you’ll get on with it, and that it will move your horse racing betting up a gear. But I want to make it as easy as possible for you to put this brilliant tool kit to work for you.
So here’s what I’m going to do.
Take Geegeez Gold for a test drive for a whole month, for just £1. If you love it, do nothing and you’ll continue to enjoy the racecards, form tools, reports and tips at the normal rate.
If it’s not for you, no problem. Just cancel your subscription at any time during the month, and you’ll never be billed again. Heck, if you really can’t get on with Gold, drop me a line and I’ll even refund your pound!
That’s how confident I am that you’re going to be wowed at what Gold has, and what it can do for you and for your betting.
At this point you might be thinking that Gold is too involved for you. That’s natural. I mean, there is a heck of a lot packed in. But the key is to only use what you want to use. Nobody uses everything, every day – not even me!
Just start off with baby steps and, when you have a bit more time, play around with some of the tools which may be less familiar to you. And don’t worry, there are video tutorials and help manuals for everything.
If you do find something you’re not sure about, and it’s not covered in the tutorials, just ask us. We’ll get you straight back on track.
Winning at betting on horse racing is about having more knowledge than the next guy. Geegeez Gold is your unfair advantage. It packs so much information into its easy-to-use, quick-to-navigate, intuitive layouts.
To be honest, when I think about the poor folks relying on the newspaper or even some of the ‘better’ racing websites out there, I almost feel sorry for them. (Almost!)
Put Geegeez Gold to work for you today, starting with your first month for just £1.
Whether or not you decide to take a 30 day trial of Geegeez Gold for £1, I'd like to thank you sincerely for reading this letter and wish you all the luck with your horse racing betting. It's fair to say Gold subscribers rely less on luck than most punters 😉
Best Regards,
Matt Bisogno
Creator, Geegeez Gold
(c) 2008-2016, Matt Bisogno, geegeez.co.uk and Summum Bonum Ltd. All rights reserved.
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