SotD Update, 2nd to 7th December 2019

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The quest for one more profitable month to round of another successful year for SotD kicked off with winners on Monday and Friday for a profit, just shy of 2pts, which is a decent start even if I was ruing the narrow defeat for Rock Sound on Thursday.

Had he managed to get up, we'd have been looking at +6.33pts for the week, basically giving a free hit for the coming week, but I suppose it's a case of taking what you can when you can and moving on.

Selections & Results : 02/12/19 to 07/12/19

02/12 : Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/4
03/12 : Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 4/1
04/12 : Maazel @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 5/4
05/12 : Rock Sound @ 7/2 2nd at 6/4
06/12 : Johnbb @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/4
07/12 : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2

02/12/19 to 07/12/19 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +1.83pts

December 2019 :
2 winners from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +1.83pts
ROI = +30.50%

2019 to date :
65 winners from 274 = 23.72% SR
P/L: +47.13pts
ROI = +17.20%

Overall:
655 winners from 2450 = 26.73% S.R
P/L: +543.54pts
ROI: +22.19%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

SotD Update, 25th to 30th November 2019

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The last week of the month was as frustrating as the one that preceded it, I'm afraid. Just the one winner late in the week to ensure no wipeout, but it did serve to minimise losses, I suppose.

Once again, I was left wondering "what if" with another couple of nicely-priced (11/4 & 6/1 this week) runners-up that would have given us a great boost, but to bounce back from October's debacle with a strike rate North of 30% and almost 15pts profit means November was still a really good month.

I'd still love to claw the remainder of October's deficit back before the end of the year, but it's tough going at this time of year and we've fewer picks to go at, but I'll not go down without a fight! Are you with me?

Selections & Results : 25/11/19 to 30/11/19

25/11 : Doctor Dex @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 13/8
26/11 : Tonto's Spirit @ 7/2 2nd at 6/1
27/11 : Stringybark Creek @ 15/2 BOG 5th at 8/1
28/11 : Colonel Whitehead @ 9/2 BOG 10th at 11/8
29/11 : Queen Of Kalahari @ 11/4 BOG WON at 11/4
30/11 : Pearl Spectre @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4

25/11/19 to 30/11/19 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.25pts

November 2019 :
8 winners from 26 = 30.77% SR
P/L: +14.55pts
ROI = +55.96%

2019 to date :
63 winners from 268 = 23.51% SR
P/L: +45.30pts
ROI = +16.90%

Overall:
653 winners from 2444 = 26.72% S.R
P/L: +541.71pts
ROI: +22.16%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2019

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Saturday's pick was...

3.25 Lingfield : Pearl Spectre @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led 2f out, ridden and headed just inside final furlong, no extra)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Probably about the bottom end of the odds range I'm comfortable with, but (a) there should still be some value about the price and (b) I think our boy has more than a 28.5% chance of winning here, but what of him?

Well, he's a 5 yr old gelding who in 10 starts this year has 3 wins, 4 runner-up finishes and one other place and has been the runner-up in each of his last three starts (more on that shortly). To date, he has 4 wins and 3 places from 15 on the All-Weather and these include of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 13 in handicaps
  • 3+3 from 12 going left handed
  • 3+2 from 9 on Standard going
  • 3+3 from 8 this year
  • 3+2 from 9 after 10-20 days off track
  • 3 from 5 here at Wolverhampton
  • 3 from 4 at 1m3f-1m4f
  • 2+1 from 3 at odds shorter than 7/2
  • 2+1 from 3 as favourite
  • and 2 from 3 at 1m4f

His trainer, Grant Tuer, is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 11.34pts (+94.5% ROI) in handicaps on this this track over the last 12 months, including 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 16.34pts (+233.5%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which there are 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 10.4pts (+260%) over this 1m4f course and distance.

And now back to the horse's recent 222 form line, which is more common than you'd possibly think, since...in UK Flat/AW Class 3-5 handicaps at odds of 11/1 and shorter, those with a 222 form line who were beaten by less than 15 lengths LTO in the previous 2 months are 97 from 388 (25% SR) for 101.1pts (+26.1% ROI) since 2013, with the following applicable today...

  • 65/174 (37.4%) for 58.8pts (+33.8%) at odds of 6/5 to 7/2
  • 20/59 (33.9%) for 49.6pts (+84%) from 5 yr olds
  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 37.9pts (+82.4%) at 1m3f-1m4f

...whilst if you wanted a micro based around the above with near 40% strike rates and ROI, then 2-8 yr olds over 5f to 1m4f at 6/5 to 7/2 are 58/149 (38.9% SR) for 58.5pts (+39.3% ROI)...

...pointing towardss...a 1pt win bet on Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG as was offered in a handful of places at 5.00pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (BOG from midnight) were a quarter point longer for those not expecting a drift. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!