Stat of the Day, 16th December 2019

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Saturday's pick was...

7.20 Wolverhampton : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong, beaten by 2 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Out The Glen @ 10/3

...in an 11-runner (was 12!), Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4½f on heavy ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 6 yr old gelding got off the mark last time out on handicap debut just over 6 weeks ago and seemed to have plenty in hand despite a stamina test coming off a 162-day lay off and I'm not convinced a 4lb rise in weight would be the reason for a failure to follow up today if he comes here in the same frame of mind and his cause is aided by a drop in class.

Aside from that win LTO, I was also interested in him as his name cropped up quite a few times in my list of daily micro-system qualifiers, but in the interests of brevity, we'll just explore 3 angles today..

1. Trainer Debra Hamer is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 46.62pts (+186.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2016, including...

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 48.62pts (+211.4%) with male runners
  • 6/27 (27.3%) for 25.33pts (+93.8%) in handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.28pts (+103.1%) here at Ffos Las
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.65pts (+185%) at Class 5
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.65pts (+220.6%) with Class 5 male handicappers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.28pts (+161.1%) with male handicappers at Ffos Las
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.45pts (+622.5%) with males in Class 5 handicaps here at Ffos Las

2. Since the start of 2015, Debra's LTO winners of handicap hurdle races are 12 from 20 (60% SR) for 65.22pts (+326.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests, from which...

  • males are 12/19 (63.2%) for 66.22pts (+348.5%)
  • Class 5 runners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 18.17pts (+227.1%)
  • and Class 5 males are 5/7 (71.4%) for 19.17pts (+273.8%)

...and finally for today...

3. Since 2014 in NH handicaps, Debra Hamer's runners with just one earlier run in the previous 90 days are 15 from 72 (20.8% SR) for 47.72pts (+66.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 51.72pts (+76.1%) from males
  • 13/42 (31%) for 61.28pts (+145.9%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 49.9pts (+118.8%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/20 (55%) for 33.42pts (+167.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 28.36pts (+76.7%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 23.8pts (+66.1%) over hurdles
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 32.8pts (+193%) at Ffos Las
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.16pts (+135.1%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 19.58pts (+195.8%) in December
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.72pts (+82.5%) with those dropping down a class
  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.45pts (+189%) on heavy ground
  • 2/4 (50%) for 12.44pts (+311%) with today's jockey, Tom Bellamy

...whilst 5-8 yr old male Class 5 handicap hurdlers sent off shorter then 5/1 within 45 days of their last run are 6/7 (85.7% SR) for 16.64pts (+237.7% ROI) including 3 from 3 for 7.29pts (+243%) from LTO winners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Out The Glen @ 10/3 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2019

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Friday's pick was...

2.10 Bangor : Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/1 (Close up in rear, went 4th 4 out, ridden 2 out, no impression and lost 3rd flat)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in an 11-runner (was 13!), Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 6 yr old Mare who won LTO on yard debut for David Evans over course and distance a week ago. She was coming off a 22-weeks break last time, so is entitled to improve for having had a run despite a 3lb rise in weight today.

Jockey Clifford Lee is 4 from 16 (25% SR) for 19.92pts (+124.5% ROI) over the last 14 days including 4/7 (57.1%) for 28.92pts (+413.1%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter, from which he is 3/4 (75%) for 20.95pts (+523.6%) for trainer David Evans.

The pair are actually 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 49.26pts (+182.44% ROI) this year, including...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 54pts (+300%) on the A/W
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 56.1pts (+330.1%) in handicaps
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 56pts (+622.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 31.35pts (+447.9%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 4/4 (100%) for 38.14pts (+953.5%) over 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs
  • 3/10 (30%) for 22.3pts (+223%) at Class 6
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 22.37pts (+745.8%) with LTO winners

They team up twice today with Sea Fox in the 7.50 race as well as our pick, a 6 yr old mare who is 5 from 24 (20.8% SR) for 8.09pts (+33.7% ROI) in handicaps here at Wolverhampton, including...

  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 10.09pts (+45.9%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 11.09pts (+52.8%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16.09pts (+100.6%) in 2018/19
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 17.09pts (+113.9%) at 8/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 13.15pts (+101.2%) over this 9.5f C&D
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 10.12pts (+77.8%) within a fortnight of her last run
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.12pts (+189%) after a top 2 finish LTO
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 9.43pts (+67.3%) at Class 6 (she's also 2/9 at C5!)
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 9.18pts (+183.6%) after a win LTO...

...whilst in 8-13 runner handicaps over this course and distance at 8/1 and shorter for less than £4,000 prize money, Sunshineandbubbles is 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 19.15pts (+273.6% ROI) since the start of 2018 and these include 3/5 (60%) at Class 6, 3/5 (60%) with a fortnight of her last run and 2 from 2 after a win last time out...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as offered by 888Sport & Bet365 respectively at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 7.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th December 2019

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Thursday's pick was...

7.20 Chelmsford : Muraaqeb @ 4/1 2nd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, headway over 1f out, went 2nd and hung left inside final furlong, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Heavy ground worth £6,238 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding has finished 212231 in his last six starts, all in handicap hurdle contests with today's jockey, Harry Reed, in the saddle, including a 2 length victory at Ayr when last seen almost six weeks ago. He is 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 19.09pts (+112.3% ROI) in handicap hurdles since joining Tristan Davidson's yard (all ridden by Harry Reed), including...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 22.09pts (+157.8%) at 2m6f to 3m1.5f
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 21.17pts (+176.5%) going left handed
  • 4/8 (50%) for 6.50pts (+81.25%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 25.57pts (+365.3%) in races worth less than £8k

But Tristan's success with hurdlers isn't just based around this particular horse, as since the start of 2018 his other hurdlers are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 22.54pts (+70.5% ROI), with the following at play today...

  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.68pts (+98.8%) using Harry Reed's services
  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 35.1pts (+195%) at odds of 11/4 to 9/1
  • 6/10 (60%) for 30.57pts (+305.7%) at 31-75 days since last run
  • and 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.89pts (+221%) at 2m4.5f to 2m7f...

...whilst the yard's LTO winners are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 22.33pts (+77% ROI) since 2015, including of note today...

  • 10/22 (45.5%) for 27.38pts (+124.4%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 12.64pts (+105.3%) with 7/8 yr olds
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 6.55pts (+81.9%) at 2m7f to 3m0.5f

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2019

/by

Wednesday's pick was...

1.10 Lingfield : Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Keen tracked leader, led over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muraaqeb @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, it's a simple "horses for courses" approach today, as we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding running in what look to be favoured conditions. His last four races have ended 1213, culminating in a very decent effort at Wolverhampton five days ago. This was despite setting out from the widest draw on a lesser preferred surface over a slightly shorter than optimal trip after being off track 113 days.

Now back on the Polytrack turned out quickly, things look more well suited for him today, as I'll hopefully highlight now...

I'll start with his overall All-Weather record, which is very good. He has made the frame in 10 of 19 starts (52.6%), going on to win 6 times (31.6% SR) with those wins generating 55.66pts profit at a very healthy ROI of 292.9% and with today's conditions in mind, his A/W record includes...

  • 6 wins, 4 places from 17 in fields of 9-15 runners : a 35.3% SR producing 57.66pts @ 339.2% ROI
  • 6 + 4 / 16 at Class 6 = 37.5% SR and 58.66pts @ 366.6%
  • 6 + 4 / 16 in cheekpieces = 37.5% SR and 58.66pts @ 366.6%
  • 5 + 3 / 16 going left handed = 31.25% SR and 44.22pts @ 276.4%
  • 4 + 3 /13 in handicaps = 30.8% SR and 29.8pts @ 229.2%
  • 5 + 2 / 9 on Polytrack = 55.6% SR and 41.86pts  @ 465.1%
  • 5 + 2 / 8 over 1m2f/1m3f = 62.5% SR and 42.85pts @ 535.6%
  • 4 +1 / 6 here at Chelmsford = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • 4 +1 / 6 over 1m2f = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • 4 +1 / 6 over this course and distance = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • and 3 + 1 /5 when sent off at 6/1 or shorter = 60% SR and 16.17pts @ 323.4%

...and when wearing cheekpieces, going left handed on Polytrack over 1m2f in a Class 6 field of 11-15 runners within 10 days of his last run, he is 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 32.42pts (+810.6% ROI) profit, all over today's course and distance and all within the last eight months...

...backing up...a 1pt win bet on Muraaqeb @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Hills at 5.40pm on Wednesday, whilst SkyBet were next best at a half point shorter for those of you still able to get BOG from them. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 7.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2019

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Tuesday's pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG 9th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 13f out until over 5f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.1o Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £2.782 to the winner...

Why?...

In a race where none of the runners are in any real kind of decent form, I'm siding with an 8 yr old gelding who has 10 wins to his name and races off a mark 10lbs and 2 classes lower than when winning back to back Class 4 handicaps here on this track earlier in the year, including one over course and distance.

His overall career stats are modest at 10/103 (9.7% SR) for a loss of 11.63pts (-11.3% ROI), but he does go much better when faced with the conditions on offer today, as he is 8 from 17 (47.1% SR) for 42.82pts (+251.9% ROI) in 6/7f handicaps at odds of 12/1 and shorter when wearing a hood in a field of 7-10 runners after three weeks rest, running for trainer David O'Meara...

...who himself is 15/70 (21.4% SR) for 47.43pts (+67.8% ROI) in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield since the start of 2016 with horses sent off at 10/1 and shorter, including...

  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 50.29pts (+122.7%) over 5-7 furlongs
  • 8/37 (21.6%) for 26.3pts (+71.1%) during December/January
  • 8/25 (32%) for 39.6pts (+158.4%) in 2019
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 23.2pts (+145%) from 8/9 yr olds
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 7.16pts (+102.3%) with jockey David Probert
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 18pts (+300%) at Class 6...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2019

/by

Monday's pick was...

1.15 Musselburgh : Castletown @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders in 5th, pushed along and outpaced after 12th, never on terms after : ran like a pig if truth be told)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Apprentice Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner.

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has been a model of consistency since switching to Karen McLintock's yard last year, winning all five starts for his new handler, including of relevance today...

  • 4/4 this year
  • 4/4 at 2m/2m0.5f
  • 4/4 in handicaps
  • 3/3 on A/W, all on tapeta
  • 1/1 at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 over course and distance
  • 1/1 at Class 5

In addition to the above, he has also landed a Class 4 hurdle over 2m4f for Karen McLintock, proving that stamina shouldn't be an issue.

Sean Davis rides him for the first time and whilst his own career stats of 88/1408 (6.25% SR) for a loss of 367.3pts (-26.1% ROI) aren't exactly inspiring, he is actually 5 from 31 (16.1% SR) for 74.67pts (+240.9% ROI) profit here at Wolverhampton at an A/E of 1.77 and these numbers include 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.67pts (+151.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

Trainer Karen McLintock comes here after hitting 3 winners from 11 over the past fortnight, including 2 from 5 here at Wolverhampton, where longer-term her runners are 9/25 (36% SR) for 20.62pts (+82.5% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 9/15 (60%) for 30.62pts (+204.1%) at 8/1 and shorter
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 24.7pts (+130%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 16.92pts (+76.9%) in handicaps
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 23.41pts (+212.8%) from 5 yr olds
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.26pts (+147.8%) with her only runner at the track that day
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 17.82pts (+297%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 16.55pts (+165.5%) at Class 5
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.21pts (+180.2%) with her only runner of the day
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 1.97pts (+98.5%) over this 2m0.5f course and distance...

...and when she has been represented by a sole 5 yr old handicapper sent off at 8/1 and shorter in a field of 9-13 runners, she has 5 wins from 5 (100% SR) for 22.26pts (+445.2% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG  as was offered by Bet365, whilst Hills & Sky Bet (both non-BOG until raceday) were slightly longer/shorter respectively at 4.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th December 2019

/by

Saturday's pick was...

12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Castletown @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.

In those last 6 runs he is...

  • 2222 under jockey Henry Brooke
  • 2312 in handicaps
  • 2232 on Good to Soft
  • 22 at Class 4 (won at Class 3)
  • 22 in December
  • 12 at 2m4.5f
  • and was a runner-up on his only run here at Musselburgh.

He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...

  • 22/90 (24.4%) for 20.2pts (+22.4%) in handicaps
  • 22/64 (34.4%) for 47.9pts (+74.9%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 31pts (+39.2%) over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f
  • 20/69 (29%) for 37.6pts (+54.5%) at 51 to 170 miles from home
  • 19/66 (28.8%) for 24.8pts (+37.6%) with her only runner at the track
  • 18/65 (27.7%) for 18.6pts (+28.6%) with her only runner of the day
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.8pts (+62.6%) with jockey Henry Brooke
  • and 7/17 (41.2%) for 22.3pts (+131.1%) with LTO runners-up

...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...

  • Henry Brooke is 5/10 (50%) for 15.74pts (+157.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 14.81pts (+148.1%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7pts (+100%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG  as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2019

/by

Friday's pick was...

1.20 Sandown : Johnbb @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/4 (Close up, tracked leaders 3 out, ridden to lead on landing last, ran on to win by a 3.25 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

12.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Native Robin @ 4/1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on currently Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding is a consistent sort, finishing 123222 in his last six outings and despite not winning any of the last five, he still boasts an impressive 5 wins from 16 over fences, including...

  • 5/13 under today's jockey Nick Scholfield
  • 4/9 at Class 4
  • 4/6 in December/January
  • 3/7 going right handed
  • and 2/3 in December

Aside from the above, this horse's name kept cropping up when I was going through my list of possible qualifiers, so I'm going to keep the separate stats brief.

We'll start by saying that the yard is in good nick too, with 5 winners from 19 in the past fortnight, including 4/12 in the last week, whilst since the start of 2017, Jeremy Scott's handicap jumpers are 23 from 80 (28.75% SR) for 16.84pts (+21% ROI) when sent off shorter than 7/1 on soft/heavy ground.

Whilst since 2014, Jeremy's Class 4 handicap chasers are 40/197 (20.3% SR) for 77.5pts (+39.3% ROI), with Nick Scholfield riding 17 winners from 79 (21.5%), whilst clocking up 38.2pts (+48.4%) profit.

And in that same 2014-19 time frame, Jeremy's sub-12/1 handicap chasers dropping in class are 18/46 (39.1% SR) for 90.6pts (+196.9% ROI) with Nick Scholfield once again being the go-to guy with an 11/24 (45.8%) record producing profits of 69.4pts (+289.3%)

Also, since 2014, when a handicap chaser has been Jeremy Scott's only runner of the day, he's has 24 winners from 123 (19.5% SR) for 79.5pts (+65.2% ROI) profit with lower grade (ie C4/5) runners winning 20 of 86 (23.2%) for 81.3pts (+95.7%).

And finally, I'll wrap this one up with a quick nod to Native Robin's recent form, since in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases since 2012, horses sent off shorter than 5/1 after finishing 222 in their previous three outings are 38 from 110 (34.6% SR) for 35.9pts (+32.6% ROI) when they'd last ran 11-45 days earlier. This includes 10 winners from 18 (55.6%) for 17.42pts (+96.8%) over 2m3.5f/2m4f ...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1  as was offered by Hills at 4.50pm on Friday. Hills were the only price available as I went to press, but another 8 firms went on to match that price, including some BOG firms. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.20 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2019

/by

Thursday's pick was...

6.30 Southwell : Rock Sound @ 7/2 2nd at 6/4 (Pressed leader, led narrowly over 4f out, driven and headed 2f out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.20 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Johnbb @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on currently Good To Soft ground worth £9,384 to the winner...

Why?...

Just the sixth start for this 5 yr old gelding, but he hasn't been out of the first three home yet, including one win. He was third last time out at Aintree, having faded out of contention late on, but that's excusable as it was (a) his chase debut, but jumped well enough, (b) his comeback from 40 weeks off track and (c) over a trip 4.5 furlongs longer than today.

He should come on for trying the fences for a first time and also for having had a run to clear the pipes. Indeed, trainer Tom Lacey's NH handicappers seem to go well after a recent run, as since the start of 2017, those with just one prior run in the previous 90 days have gone on to win 11 of 38 (29% SR) for 37.6pts (+99% ROI) and whilst there are just 38 such runners, I don't think that their success is pure coincidence, when you consider that the following are applicable today...

  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 41.6pts (+122.4%) from 5-8 yr olds
  • 10/25 (40%) for 27.15pts (+108.6%) at 6/4 to 15/2 odds
  • 9/25 (36%) for 21.6pts (+86.5%) from his only runner at that track that day
  • 9/25 (36%) for 20.55pts (+82.2%) at 21-45 dslr
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 45.4pts (+302.6%) after finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 7/13 (53.8%) for 43.8pts (+336.8%) on Good to Soft / Soft
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 24.7pts (+190.2%) dropping in trip
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 12.3pts (+82%) in November/December
  • 3/5 (60%) for 17.1pts (+342.5%) on Good to Soft
  • 3/5 (60%) for 7.3pts (+146%) in December
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.82pts (+85.2%) were 3rd LTO
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 5.9pts (+59%) at Class 3

Now, I'm not going to combine the above into a composite angle, as I fear it would dilute an already small sample size too much, but I do want to re-visit the third item on that list ie Tom Lacey's only runner at a track, because since the start of 2016, when sending just one out to a track, he is 54/177 (30.5% SR) for 119.7pts (+67.6% ROI) in handicaps contests.

He also sends just one chaser to Exeter today (Kateson in the 1.30), but that's a non-handicap contest, so with today's race in mind, those 177 solo travellers are...

  • 49/128 (38.3%) for 115.7pts (+90.4%) at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
  • 43/136 (31.6%) for 102.8pts (+75.6%) from males
  • 27/72 (37.5%) for 88pts (+122.3%) from 5 yr olds
  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 54pts (+98.2%) in the final quarter of the year
  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 49pts (+92.5%) at Class 3
  • 15/40 (37.5%) for 12.8pts (+32%) from chasers
  • and 9/25 (36%) for 22.05pts (+88.2%) in December...

...whilst 5 yr old males sent off at 5/4 to 8/1 from October to December inclusive are 11 from 17 (64.7% SR) for 32.2pts (+189.6% ROI) including 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 7.93pts (+99.1%) in December...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Johnbb @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG  as was offered by Bet365 (10/3) and a whole host of others at 3/1 (some BOG, most not until morning) at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2019

/by

Wednesday's pick was...

3.40 Kempton : Maazel @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 5/4 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, driven to chase leaders when not clear run over 1f out, unable to challenge, no impression inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock Sound @ 10/3

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 4 yr old gelding makes just his seventh start today, but has won 2 of his previous six, including last time out a month ago over course and distance in another big field (14 ran) hcp, which was his first run in the UK, first run on an artificial surface and also his yard debut for Declan Carroll, whose runners are 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) for 9.5pts (+52.7% ROI) on the A/W over the last 30 days, including 4 from 10 (40%) for 17.5pts (+175%) here at Southwell.

Included amongst that recent run of good form at this venue are the following of relevance today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 22.5pts (+450%) from males
  • 4/5 (80%) for 22.5pts (+450%) at sub-12/1 odds
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 18.22pts (+227.7%) in handicaps
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 22.22pts (+555.5%) on 13/14 runner contests...

...whilst sub-12/1 male handicappers are 3 from 3 9100% SR) for 23.22pts (+773.9% ROI) in 13/14 runner fields...

And this recent run isn't a flash in the pan either, as Declan's runners have fared well here at Southwell for a number of years now, clocking up 21 wins from 112 (18.75% SR) in handicaps since the start of 2016, generating 40.6pts profit at a healthy 36.2% return, including of note here...

  • 21/105 (20%) for 47.6pts (+45.3%) at trips of 5f to 1m
  • 19/100 (19%) for 39.6pts (+39.6%) in fields of 8-14 runners
  • 18/64 (28.1%) for 38.9pts (+60.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 17/82 (20.7%) for 41.3pts (+50.4%) at the same trip or dropped 1f from LTO
  • 13/63 (20.6%) for 41.8pts (+66.3%) during the 3 months from November to January...

...whilst if you wanted to secure almost 80% of the original profit from just 37.5% of the original bets, then sub-17/2 runners over 5f to 1m in 8-14 runner contests as the same trip or down 1f from LTO are 13/42 (31% SR) for 32.4pts (+77.7% ROI), with those racing during November & December winning 6 of 18 (33.3%) for 14.94pts (+83%) and this fairly simple approach...

...provides us with...a 1pt win bet on Rock Sound @ 10/3 as was offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.50pm on Wednesday, although they sadly don't go BOG until racedays. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!