Stat of the Day, 11th January 2020

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Friday's pick was...

2.00 Sedgefield : Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG WON 6/4 (Chased leader, ridden between last 2, 2 lengths down last, stayed on to lead towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 18-runner, Class 5, National Hunt Flat race for 4-6yo over 2m on Soft ground worth £2,599 to the winner...

Why?...

Matt in place of Chris for one day only, and we'll be groping in the dark on Saturday as we side with an unraced horse in a field of unraced horses!

Stats to the fore then...

First up, trainer Harry Fry has an excellent record in NHF races. He's 20 from 72 (17 more placed) for +12.08 (A/E 1.17, IV 2.63) in the last two years.

With horses making their career bow, he is 11 from 42, 8 further places (26% win, 45% placed) for +6.31 (A/E 1.16, IV 3.35) in the same time frame.

To remind you, A/E greater than 1 suggests the market has yet to catch up with the angle; IV greater than 1 means something happens more often than chance - in this case 2.63x and 3.35x as often as chance.

Fry is enjoying the good times again after a desperate season and a half. In the last 30 days, he's won ten times from 33 starters (30%, +16.4, A/E 1.22, IV 2.91).

And he's getting warmer rather than cooler by the look of it, as his 14 day figures are 7/20 (35%, +17.52, A/E 1.46, IV 3.28)

Much of the good stuff in the past month has been achieved with today's jockey, Sean Bowen, the partnership winning with eight of 22 in that time (+23.67, A/E 1.52, IV 3.5). Bowen is an extremely talented - and strong - jockey.

This chap is a son of George Vancouver, his very first bumper runner. The trainer and, to a lesser degree, jockey angle(s) justify the statistical straw clutching...

...so it's...a 1pt win bet on George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Unibet & Boylesports at 8pm Friday evening (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

1.10 Leicester : Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Meeting abandoned : waterlogged track)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft (G to S in places) ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we like horse, jockey & trainer under today's conditions, so let's look at each!

The horse : This 8 yr old gelding actually won this race last year and loves coming here to tackle the fences, having won three times and placed on a further two occasions from just six efforts in handicap chases here, including...

  • 3/5 (60%) for 4.15pts (+83%) on Soft/Gd to Soft
  • 3/5 (60%) for 4.15pts (+83%) in fields of 5-9 runners
  • 3/3 (100%) for 6.15pts (+205%) in Jan/Feb
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.71pts (+14.1%) under jockey Henry Brooke (more on him very shortly)
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2.88pts (+72%) over this course and distance
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 1.71pts (+42.6%) on Soft ground

The Jockey : Henry Brooke also has a great record here, winning 22 of 88 (25% SR) handicap chases at this venue over the last seven years, generating 59.9pts profit at an impressive 68% ROI, largely thanks to the following achieved under today's conditions...

  • 22/81 (27.2%) for 66.9pts (+82.6%) on male runners
  • 16/58 (27.6%) for 66.1pts (+114%) with 6-9 yr olds
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 6.39pts (+21.3%) over 2m3.5f to 2m4f
  • 4/10 (40%) for 1.69pts (+16.9%) for trainer Brian Ellison (see below)
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.14pts (+187.7%) in January

and the trainer : Brian Ellison, who for one reason or another doesn't send too many handicap chasers to Sedgefield, despite it only being a 60-mile journey from his yard in North Yorkshire. We can discount the travelling aspect for his lack of visits here and it certainly isn't because he can't get winners here either.

In the last four years, his Sedgefield handicap chase record at odds of Evens to 15/4 stands at 7 from 16 (43.75% SR) for 6.68pts (+41.8% ROI) profit. All 16 were male and include...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 5.69pts (+56.9%) on Gd to Soft/Soft
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 5.37pts (+89.5%) in Jan/Feb
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 4.69pts (+66.9%) using Henry Brooke's services
  • 3/5 (60%) for 6.21pts (+124.2%) over course and distance
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 3pts (+42.9%) at Class 3...

...and this 3-pronged approach suggests...a 1pt win bet on Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & Hills (but please check your BOG status first) at 8.10am on Friday and was still offered by Bet365 at 9.05am. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2020

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Wednesday's pick was...

5.45 Kempton : Qaseeda @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 9/1 (Prominent, ridden over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.10 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m  on Good to Soft ground worth £6,108 to the winner...

Why?...

Non-runner! Meeting abandoned...

...but it would have been...a 1pt win bet on Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Unibet & Hills (but please check your BOG status first) at 8.10am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2020

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Tuesday's pick was...

4.15 Southwell : Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 (Held up towards rear, headway over 3f out, led over 2f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well towards finish)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Qaseeda @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f  on Standard To Slow polytrack worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly is making just her fourth start today and her handicap debut having already made the frame twice including finishing third last time out almost ten weeks ago.

Her name kept cropping up when I was going through the various reports I use each evening to find my picks, so I'm just going to briefly touch upon three of the relevant angles for today.

We'll start with an obvious one, trainer William Haggas' record here at Kempton, where his A/W handicappers sent off at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 are 13 from 45 (28.9% SR) for 17.5pts (+38.9% ROI) over the last four years, from which those racing in 3yo races are 5/14 (35.7%) for 5.07pts (+36.2%).

Next we have Mr Haggas' A/W handicappers who have only had one outing in the previous three months and these runners are 12 from 33 (36.4% SR) for 15.9pts (+48.2% ROI)

And as this filly is making her handicap bow today, I'll round this off by saying that the yard's handicap debutants sent off at 2/1 or longer over the last three years are 31 from 138 (22.5% SR) for 49.1pts (+35.6% ROI), including the following of relevance/note today...

  • 19/73 (26%) for 31.6pts (+43.3%) over 7f to 1m
  • 19/56 (33.9%) for 65.2pts (+116.4%) at 26-120 days since last run
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 24.6pts (+79.5%) on the A/W
  • 10/28 (35.7%) for 17.6pts (+62.8%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 25.1pts (+69.7%) from those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 6.8pts (+97.2%) here at Kempton...

...whilst those racing over 7f-1m on the A/W at 26-120 dslr are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 12.24pts (+153% ROI), a stat that also applies to Qaabil who runs for Mr Haagas in the 4.00 at Newcastle and is currently available at 7/2 BOG...

...but I've opted for...a 1pt win bet on Qaseeda @ 5/2 BOG as was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet (and also 11/4 at Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.10am on Wednesday. This is a little shorter than I normally post, but I think there might be a slight drift this morning if Adam Kirby's ride attracts money. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2020

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Monday's pick was...

1.35 Ayr : Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, headway into 3rd approaching 4 out, left in well held 2nd place 2 out, dropped to 3rd at the last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5,  Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner...

Why?...

No win in eleven for this for this 5 yr old gelding is probably not the first thing you wanted me to tell you about today's pick, but I'd quickly add that a run of results reading 334232 does suggest that a win is coming and isn't out of turn! In fact, he was only beaten by a head over course and distance off this mark, under today's jockey (Kieran O'Neill) LTO, 9 days ago.

He was headed in the final strides and trainer Robyn Brisland is now applying cheekpieces in a bid to eke a little more out of him in the finish to help him improve what is actually a respectable record for these type of lower grade A/W runners who seem to just take turns at beating each other.

To date he is 4 from 22 (18.2% SR) for 17.57pts (+79.9% ROI) despite his recent run of placed efforts, but what I found interesting looking at this profile was that all four wins have come under a set of conditions prevalent today ie...

  •  off a mark (OR) of 50-65
  • trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • A/W handicap races
  • left handed tracks
  • standard going
  • wearing a tongue tie...

...and when all of the above have been present as they are today, he is 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 29.57pts (+295.7% ROI) profit, including...

  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 16.25pts (+232.2%) here at Southwell
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.4pts (+342.3%) under Kieran O'Neill
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.75pts (+112.6%) over course and distance
  • 2/5 (40%) for 8.03pts (+160.6%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.75pts (+325.1%) within 10 days of his last run.

Those A/W stats aren't too surprising, if you knew that his sire is North Light, whose offspring are 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 51.2pts (+119.1% ROI) on the All-Weather over the last four years, including of relevance today...

  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 55.2pts (+141.5%) with male runners
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 56.2pts (+147.9%) over trips of 8.5 to 12 furlongs
  • 10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) on Standard going
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 59.2pts (+169.1%) from 4-8 yr olds
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 47.8pts (+145%) in handicaps
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+238.9%) at 6-15 days since they last ran...

...whilst 4-8 yr old males at 8.5-12 furlongs on Standard going are 10/30 (33.3% SR) for 64.2pts (+214% ROI), including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 55.8pts (+223.2%) in handicaps
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 41.2pts (+317.2%) at 6-15 dslr
  • and 5/10 (50%) for 40.1pts (+401%) in handicaps at 6-15 dslr...

...which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Ladbrokes (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.00am on Tuesday. (10/3 was widely available at 9.05am, whilst Coral were at 7/2.) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

11.40 Lingfield : Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, headway 2f out, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, kept on one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.35 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5,  Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding is a former dual PTP winner and was also a winner under Rules over fences when last seen 11 days ago (Boxing Day). He landed a similar Class 5 contest at Sedgefield on soft ground that day with today's jockey, Conor O'Farrell, in the saddle.

Conor's in really good touch post-Christmas, landing three winners on Boxing Day amongst his 7 from 23 (30.4% SR) record since the break that has rewarded those following him with 64.1pts profit at an ROI of some 278.1%, including...

  • 6/12 (50%) for 55.1pts (+458.8%) over trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 68pts (+523.4%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 56pts (+1120%) in handicaps shorter than 2m1f
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 4.88pts (+69.7%) over fences
  • 2/5 (40%) for 2.81pts (+56.2%) at Class 5
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2pts (+50%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • and 1/1 (100%) (on Ripstick LTO) for 4.94pts (+494%) for today's trainer James Walton...

...whose handicap chasers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 14/1 are 6 from 30 (20% SR) for 23.6pts (+78.7% ROI) over the last two years, including of note today...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 30.6pts (+133%) with 8-11 yr olds
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 14.7pts (+64%) with those sent off shorter than 10/1
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 26.7pts (+243%) at Class 5
  • and 4/12 (33.3%) for 23.5pts (+195.8%) with Conor O'Farrell in the saddle...

...whilst James' 8-11 yr olds sent off shorter than 10/1 in Class 5 contests are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 29.73pts (+371.6% ROI) with Conor O'Farrell riding 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 14.63pts (+292.6%) profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.05am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2020

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Friday's pick was...

6.15 Southwell : Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/1 (Keen led after 1f, made rest, pushed along 2f out, ran on to win by a length and three quarters)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

11.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5,  A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Standard Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Trainer Ed Walker is 4 from 21 (19.05% SR) for 3.21pts (+15.3% ROI) over the last five weeks, from which he has achieved...

  • 3/12 (25%) for 9.36pts (+78%) in handicaps
  • 3/6 (50%) for 6.28pts (+104.7%) at odds of 7/4 to 5/1
  • 3/6 (50%) for 6.28pts (+104.7%) with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.44pts (+214.7%) wih Luke Morris riding a handicapper at 7/4 to 5/1.

Impressive enough figures, of course, but not really enough of a sample size to hang your hat on. Looking further back in time, it's not too surprising that Ed's doing well, as over the last three years, his handicappers sent off at 7/4 to 7/1 are 105/477 (22% SR) for 84.8pts (+17.8% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 95/392 (24.2%) for 118.1pts (+30.1%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 47/187 (25.1%) for 42.2pts (+22.6%) on the A/W
  • 39/164 (23.8%) for 33.6pts (+20.5%) at Class 5
  • 37/155 (23.9%) for 27.1pts (+17.5%) at 1m2f to 1m5f
  • 34/143 (23.8%) for 49.4pts (+34.6%) with females
  • 31/126 (24.6%) for 38.8pts (+30.8%) on Polytrack
  • and 12/32 (37.5%) for 26.3pts (+82.3%) with Luke Morris in the saddle...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.15am on Saturday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 11.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Chelmsford : Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway 2f out, switched right over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck and a nose)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4,  A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Standard Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...Class 4, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £5208

Why?...

This 6 yr old USA-bred gelding was a winner LTO fifteen days ago when landing another 6f, C4, A/W hcp at Wolverhampton, causing him to be rated 3lbs higher today. But as that win came off the back of a 4-month break, he can be expected to come on for the run and the switch back to Southwell's fibresand track is another positive.

To date, he is 5/25 (20% SR) for 83.5pts (+334%) in A/W handicaps, including the following under today's conditions...

  • 5/20 (25%) for 88.5pts (+442.5%) without headgear
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) on Standard going
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) over 6 furlongs
  • 4/16 (25%) for 73.2pts (+457.5%) going left handed
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 12.7pts (+90.7%) after a short 7-15 day break
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.41pts (+23.4%) here at Southwell
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 2.41pts (+48.2%) over course and distance...

...whilst he is 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 77.2pts (+643.4% ROI) going left handed over 6f on Standard with no head gear and this includes 2 from 5 (40%) over C&D, 2 from 5 (40%) within 15 dslr and 2 from 2 (100%) at Southwell within 15 dslr.

I mentioned at the top that he was USA-bred and much (possibly too much) has already been said (including by myself) about the success rate of USA-bred runners at this track. So much so that any value from just following them has now been pretty much eroded/eradicated, as those pesky bookies cotton on!

However (there's always an however!), it is worth knowing that there are still some niche angles that are profitable including this one of relevance today... 5-7 yr old, USA-bred males sent off at 12/1 or shorter over 6f to 1m in Class 4-6 A/W hcps at Southwell.

Trust me, that's more complicated in print than it is in practice and following such runners over the last three years (no reliance on old data) would have found you 20 winners from 82 (24.4% SR) and 70.8pts (+86.3% ROI) of profit and with this horse and race specifically in mind...

  • those sent off at 5/1 and shorter have a 27.5% strike rate (11 from 40)
  • those racing over this 6f course and distance have won 34.6% (9/26)
  • 6 yr olds have a 28% SR via 7 wins from 25
  • those 6f runners sent off at 5/1 max are 6/14 (42.9% SR)
  • whilst at Class 4 it's 4 from 19 for a 21% win ratio...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG as was available from best priced Unibet at 8.10am on Friday (plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere!). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2020

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New Year's Day's pick was...

12.15 Cheltenham : Redford Road @ 3/1 & BFSP 5th at 2/1 & 3.18 (Led until not fluent 3 out, soon led again, headed off last bend and one pace after)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP

...in a 9-runner, Class 6 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Standard Polytrack worth £2,846 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old Mare is seeking a hat-trick today after wins here at Chelmsford eight weeks ago and then at Wolverhampton three weeks back.

Jockey Hollie Doyle was on board last time and retains the ride today, hoping to maintain her own good form that has seen her ride 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last fortnight and she'll also be hoping to land another winner for trainer Tony Carroll for whom she was 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 7.25pts (+42.6% ROI) in 2019, including of relevance today...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.25pts (+86.5%) in handicaps
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 15.25pts (+169.4%) at sub-6/1 odds
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 7.91pts (+65.9%) on the A/W
  • 3/5 (60%) for 8.4pts (+168%) on female runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.4pts (+235.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.92pts (+48.6%) at Class 6

...whilst over the last two years Tony's sub-12/1 A/W handicappers racing over 1m3f to 1m6f are 10 from 44 (22.7% SR) for 43.3pts (+98.4% ROI), from which...

  • those running on Poly are 6/24 (25%) for 24.5pts (+102.2%)
  • Class 6 runners are 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+98%)
  • Class 6 Poly runners are 3/12 (25%) for 18.12pts (+151%)
  • and LTO winners are 3/10 930%) for 6.2pts (+62%)

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP as was available from BetVictor, Hills & Spreadex at 8.30am on Thursday (was 7/2 at 9.10am!), but do take BOG where possible. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2020

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New Year's Eve's pick was...

3.20 Lingfield : Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, never nearer)

New Year's Day's pick runs in the...

12.15 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redford Road @ 3/1 and Betfair SP

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Ballymore Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £14,238 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was a Grade 2 winner here at Cheltenham on his last start 18 days ago and although he now takes a drop in trip, he has won at 2m4f over hurdles in the past. In fact he's never been out of the first two home in five starts, winning three times and never beaten by more than a length, including...

  • 3 from 3 going left handed
  • 2 wins and a second from 3 over hurdles (all Novice events)
  • 2 from 2 under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • a win and a second from 2 on Soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Cheltenham

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers who won last time out are 31 from 99 (31.3% SR) for 17.1pts (+17.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of Evens to 13/2 over the past four years, including of relevance today...

  • 31/97 (32%) for 19.1pts (+19.7%) with males
  • 25/67 (37.3%) for 30.2pts (+45.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 11/19 (57.9%) for 22.4pts (+117.7%) over trips of 2m3½f to 2m4½f
  • 9/30 (30%) for 1.5pts (+5%) on soft ground
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.4pts (+12.4%) here at HQ
  • 5/10 (50%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%) in January
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 10.6pts (+265%) from those dropping in trip by 4-5 furlongs

...whilst from the above...5-6 yr old males racing over 2m3½f to 2m4½f are 9/15 (60% SR) for 21.53pts (+143.5% ROI) including 4/7 on soft, 2/2 in Jan, 2/2 dropping 4-5f and 1/1 at Chelts...

...giving us...0.5pts at Betfair SP and a 0.5pt win bet on Redford Road @ 3/1 as was available from Paddy Power & Betfair at 6.40pm on New Year's Eve. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.15 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!