Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2020

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Wednesday's pick was...

4.30 Kempton : Atalanta Queen @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 (led, ridden well over 1f out, headed 1f out, well held when lost 2nd 100 yards out, weakened towards finish)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Storm Control @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,408 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding returns to action after a 40-day break, ahead of which he made the frame in three of his last four starts, winning twice and filling the runner-up berth on another occasion. He was a winner last time in another Class 3, soft ground Handicap Chase and now will seek to continue the recent good form of his stablemates...

...trained by Kerry Lee. It's fair to say that the yard has been quiet of late. Her first runners of the year appeared on 11th January and shes only had five out so far this year, but those runners do boast a 2 from 4 return over fences with both wins coming from 3 soft ground efforts.

More longer-term, though, Kerry's handicap chasers who won a handicap chase LTO are 10 from 36 (27.8% SR) for 27.1pts (+75.2% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2016 and they're really good figures for a "set, bet and forget" angle if you wanted one. I rarely blanket bet an angle and attempt to weed out some of the losers without disposing of too many winners, so based on the above stat, here's my top 10 filters...

  • 9/29 (31%) for 32.5pts (+112.2%) at Evens to 9/1
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 21.75pts (+80.5%) after 16-60 days off track
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 31.4pts (+142.7%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 29pts (+132%) from December to March
  • 8/20 (40%) for 28.75pts (+143.8%) with runners aged 7-10 yrs old
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 38pts (+223.6%) off a mark (OR) of 126-145
  • 6/20 (30%) for 11.1pts (+55.5%) over trips of 2m to 2m6f
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 19.5pts (+139.5%) in races worth £4-10k
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 32.6pts (+296.1%) at Class 3
  • and 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.6pts (+104%) on soft ground...

...whilst 7-10 yr olds sent off at Evens to 13/2 in 5-10 runner contests during October to March after 16-60 days off track are 5 from 5 (100% SR) for 26.42pts (+528.4% ROI), including 4 off marks of 126-145, 3 at 2m-2m6f, 3 in races worth less than £10k, 2 at Class 3 and 2 on soft ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Storm Control @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.10am Thursday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2020

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Tuesday's pick was...

1.30 Exeter : Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at 11.27am due to the going)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty low grade/quality stuff here today, where the same horses seem to take turns at beating each other. Despite that, our 5 yr old mare is one of the more consistent types at this level and has made the frame four times from her last six efforts, including one win and she was a runner-up when last seen a week ago, plus she was a winner the last time she ran in non-handicap company.

Her record on the A/W is better than most at this level with a 50% place strike rate after 3 wins (21.4% SR) and 4 places from 14, including the following under today's conditions...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 12 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 within four weeks of her last run
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 off a mark (OR) of 46-50
  • 3 wins from 8 in fields of 12 or more runners
  • and 2 wins, 3 places from 7 over a one mile trip...

...whilst in Class 6, 12-14 runner contests off 46-50 within four weeks of her last run, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 146.45pts (+2929% ROI) including 2/3 (66.6%) for 129.6pts (+4320%) over a mile. The P/L and ROI here are skewed by a 50/1 winner paying 130/1 at betfair SP, but the strike rates are still more than valid!

Her trainer Robyn Brisland is 4 from 16 (25% SR) over the last fortnight and the yard's horses seem to go well under today's jockey Kieran O'Neill, winning 3 of 10 in the last fortnight and 6 of 23 (26.1% SR) for 11.91pts (+51.8% ROI) so far this year, including...

  • 6/10 (60%) for 24.91pts (+249.1%) at odds of 6/4 to 10/1
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 10.07pts (+59.2%) at 5f to 1m
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.07pts (+93.3%) at Class 6
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 21.07pts (+351.1%) at 6/4 to 10/1 in Class 6 contests at 5f to 1m.

And with this mare turning out pretty soon after her recent runner-up finish LTO, it might be of interest to know that Robyn Brisland's runners are 16 from 69 (23.2% SR) for 62.3pts (+90.3%) within 4-10 days of their last run with All-Weather contests yielding 15 from 50 (30%) and 68.7pts (+137.4%) profit.

And from those 50 A/W runners quickly turned back out, Robyn is...

  • 10/25 (40%) for 70.9pts (+283.6%) with females
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 36.1pts (+150.3%) on Polytrack
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 53.4pts (+197.9%) with 4/5 yr olds
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.2pts (+154.2%) lost by a neck to 3 lengths LTO
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 39pts (+144.4%) over 5f to 1m
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 39.5pts (+263%) from females on Polytrack
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.43pts (+53%) in January
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 17pts (+188.8%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.41pts (+45.8%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Wednesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2020

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Monday's pick was...

3.30 Newcastle : Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced wide, chased leaders in 3rd, left in 2nd at 6th, hit next, lost 2nd 3 out, rallied into 2nd again between last 2, no chance with winner)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.30 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3f on Heavy ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

Not a lot of racing to actually choose from today, but this one looks too long to ignore. A winner of two of his last six starts, this 7 yr old gelding scored on his penultimate outing over similar trip and going to today at Ffos Las, ahead of finding the step up to Class 2 too tough at Ascot last time out (a month ago).

He's had a short rest and now drops in class and gets weight all round to run at a venue his trainer has done well at in recent years, as Evan Williams' horses have won 19 of 83 (22.9% SR) for profits of 66.8pts (+80.4% ROI) here at Exeter over the past five years.

I could actually draw stumps there and say that's a good enough reason, but SotD wouldn't be SotD without some drilling down into the base stat, would it? So, here goes, from those original 83 runners, they are...

  • 17/71 (23.9%) for 64.9pts (+91.4%) from male runners
  • 17/64 (26.6%) for 63.8pts (+99.7%) for prizes of £0-10k
  • 13/46 (28.3%) for 60.6pts (+131.8%) in handicaps
  • 12/38 (31.6%) for 53.7pts (+141.4%) after 26-90 days rest
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 21.4pts (+62.9%) in chases
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 28.8pts (+120%) in Novice contests
  • 6/26 (23.1%) for 8.73pts (+33.6%) at Class 3
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 17pts (+242.7%) in Novice handicaps...

...whilst males competing for a handicap worth £0-10k are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 34.6pts (+247.1% ROI) after 26-90 days rest, including 3/4 in Novice handicaps, 2/5 at Class 3 and 2/5 over fences...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Tuesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th January 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

7.15 Chelmsford : Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Held up in rear, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched right, kept on inside final furlong, no impression, went 3rd post)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, this horse's name just kept on cropping up in all my shortlist reports, so here's just a brief overview of a handful of them...

1. This 12 yr old gelding may be getting on, but he's still running well and is 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 7.88pts (+60.6% ROI) in handicap chases, including 4/8 under today's jockey Danny Cook, 3/10 at Class 4 and 2/3 at today's trip.

2. He's by Desert King, whose offspring are 23/118 (19.5% SR) for 71.3pts (+60.4% ROI) in handicap chases over the last four years, including 14/50 (28%) for 53.55pts (+107.1%) at trips shorter than 2m2f.

3. Jockey Danny Cook is 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 8.55pts (+22.5% ROI) over the past 30 days, trainer Sue Smith is 9/33 (27.3%) for 13.55pts (+41.1%) on the same period, whilst together they are 9/24 (37.5%) for 22.55pts (+94%) including 6/12 950%) for 20pts (+166.4%) in chases.

4. More longer-term than just the last month or so, Sue Smith is 28/89 (31.5% SR) for 89.8pts (+100.9% ROI) in handicaps during January since the start of 2016 from which, soft ground runners are 14/36 (38.9%) for 50.7pts (+140.7%)

5. And finally for today, Sue's last 50 handicap chasers to be sent off at Evens to 13/2 here at Newcastle have generated 14 victories (28% SR) and 12.6pts profit at an ROI of 25.2% and they include the following of relevance today...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 10.73pts (+23.8%) at Class 3/4
  • 11/36 ((30.6%) for 17.46pts (+48.5%) during November to January
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 14.48pts (+43.9%) on Soft ground
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 7.82pts (+24.4%) with Danny Cook in the saddle
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.61pts (+137.2%) over today's course and distance...

...whilst during Nov-Jan, Danny and Sue are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 6.04pts (+31.8% ROI)at Class 3/4 on Soft ground, including 2/4 (50%) for 6.08pts (+152%) over course and distance...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2020

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Friday's pick was...

6.45 Newcastle : She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders in 3rd, pushed along halfway, ridden and one pace over 1f out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £5,434 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has finished 121 in his last three starts, culminating in a course and distance win here 16 days ago under today's jockey Ben Curtis despite losing his whip in the closing stages, taking the horse's record on the A/W to include of relevance today...

  • 2/5 in handicaps
  • 2/4 on Standard going
  • 2/4 going left handed
  • 2/3 here at Chelmsford
  • 2/3 under Ben Curtis
  • 2/3 in a visor
  • 1/1 over a mile
  • 1/1 over C&D

Meanwhile, over the last seven months, jockey Ben is 5 from 10 (50% SR) for 40.98pts (+409.8% ROI) when riding for trainer George Scott, including...

  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 38pts (+534.4%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.7pts (+167.4%) at evens to 5/1
  • 3/6 (50%) for 33.67pts (+561.2%) on the A/W
  • 2/4 (50%) for 6.17pts (+154.3%) at Class 4
  • 2/2 (100%) for 34.5pts (+1725%) here at Chelmsford
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 33.28pts (+1116%) with horses wearing a visor
  • 2/2 (100%) for 34.5pts (+1725%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.41pts (+270.3%) over 1m

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG as was offered by SkyBet & Unibet at 8.10am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

1.10 Market Rasen : Oscar's Leader @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 15/8 (Tracked leaders, ridden and weakened before last)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly isn't an obvious pick on form, but she has been well rested (12 weeks) ahead of returning in the type of contest her trainer does well in.

Taking a fairly pared-back simple approach today, my way in is that John (JJ) Quinn + Newcastle A/W hcps + 5-8 furlongs + Evens to 8/1 = 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+58.5% ROI) over the last three years, including at play today...

  • 9/30 (30%) for 34.5pts (+115.1%) in fields of 6-12 runners
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 25.4pts (+74.6%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 37.4pts (+178.1%) during December to April
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 18.1pts (+66.9%) at Class 6
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 27.9pts (+132.8%) from those unplaced LTO
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 15.6pts (+312%) from those returning from a break of more than 75 days...

...whilst Class 6 runners competing against 6-11 rivals for less than £4,000 during December to April are 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 24.3pts (+221.2% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Friday morning and was widely available by 8.35am (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2020

/by

Wednesday's pick was...

2.30 Wolverhampton : Reasoned @ 5/2 BOG 8th at 9/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, ridden and every chance 2f out, weakened approaching final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.10 Market Rasen :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Oscar's Leader @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?...

Once again the weather has played its part, removing three of the top four selections on my daily shortlist and whilst that made picking today's selection a little easier, it's also another positive for posting the picks on the morning of the race. Otherwise, we could very well have had two non-runners yesterday and today.

So, where are we? A 7 yr old gelding yet to win in nine starts, that's hardly inspiring on paper, but he did produce his best effort for some time (if not ever), when third last time out six weeks ago on his debut for new handler Jennie Candlish.

Jennie's no mug, I'll tell you and she's very adept at getting the best out of what is a pretty small string of runners, so I'm bowing to her superior knowledge for stepping this one up in trip by a good 6 furlongs to run here. The obvious positives of him coming here today are that he's used to running on soft ground (6 of his 9 starts so far) and the yard have done well here of late from a small number of entries, as...

...Jennie Candlish + Market Rasen + last 4 years = 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 56.45pts (+161.3% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 21.9pts (+99.5%) at Class 4
  • 6/25 (24%) for 51.7pts (+206.8%) in handicaps
  • 6/15 (40%) for 26.9pts (+179.6%) at odds of 2/1 to 7/1
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 21.5pts (+165.1%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 64.7pts (+588.5%) at 26-45 days since last run
  • 4/8 (50%) for 60.5pts (+756.3%) from 7 yr olds
  • 3/12 (25%) for 47.1pts (+392.2%) on Soft ground
  • 3/10 (30%) for 44.02pts (+440.2%) in December/January
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 52.8pts (+659.8%) over trips of 2m5.5f to 2m7.5f

...now, some of the above P/L and ROI figures are somewhat skewed by a 25/1 winner that paid 46.55 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't detract from Jennie's excellent strike rates here under the above conditions and filtering down from the top we also see that 7 yr old, Class 4, handicappers sent off at 2/1 to 7/1 are three from four (the fourth was a runner-up beaten by three quarters of a length) with that 75% strike rate producing 13.73pts at an ROI of 343.4%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Oscar's Leader @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & Hills at 8.10am Thursday morning with plenty of 10/3 knocking about (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Market Rasen

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th January 2020

/by

Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Doncaster : Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 2/1 (Tracked leading pair, reminders before 13th, weakened next, tailed off )

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reasoned @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Because Plumpton was abandoned!

So I'm going to keep this fairly short (and hopefully sweet) as Plan B swings into in operation this morning, after the race I'd done most prep on fell foul of the weather, turning us towards an in-form 4 yr old gelding who has finished 2211 in her last four starts, the only of her races where today's jockey Shane Kelly has been in situ.

All four races were here at Wolverhampton with defeats by just 0.5 and 0.75 lengths were followed by a victory by a neck, all over 7f. This suggests she struggled to see out that trip and was dropped down to today's 6f last time out, where she got home by a good three lengths.

James Eustace's yard isn't the busiest at any time really (112 runners in each of 2018 & 2019), but his horses are 3 from 10 (30% SR) for 5.93pts (+59.3% ROI) over the last four weeks and with another two making the frame, I'd guess they're going pretty well right now.

Again another small sample size, but since 2015, James' handicappers sent off at Evens to 11/2 (surely that's us today?) 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 13.2pts (+146.9% ROI), including...

  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 16.22pts (+270.4%) in fields of 10-12 runners
  • 4/5 (80%) for 9.48pts (+189.6%) during December to February
  • 3/4 (75%) for 5.87pts (+146.7%) with LTO winners

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Reasoned @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Wednesday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2020

/by

Monday's pick was...

3.00 Southwell : Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Dwelt soon led narrowly, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m2f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, on what looks as poor a day of racing that I've seen for some time. I'm going to keep it really simple with a 7 yr old gelding who has made the frame in all bar one of his six efforts over fences, winning once along the way. He stays much further than this, doesn't mind soft ground, he's dropping in class and has been eased 2lb by the assessor since finishing 3rd LTO 39 days ago.

All of which suggests he should be fine with race conditions for his first visit to Doncaster, where trainer Alan King's chasers are 9 from 32 (28.1% SR) for 15.67pts (+49% ROI) over the last five years, including...

  • 9/31 (29%) for 16.67pts (+53.8%) from males
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23.46pts (+123.5%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 7/20 (35%) for 3.33pts (+16.65%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 20.84pts (+109.7%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 6/24 (25%) for 18.89pts (+78.7%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.53pts (+81.7%) in Jan/Feb
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.66pts (+40.7%) on Gd to Soft in case the going eases
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.71pts (+34.2%) on soft ground...

...whilst 6-7 yr old males sent off shorter than 5/1 after a top 3 finish LTO are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 2.29pts (+28.6% ROI), all in the December to February period, 2 from 2 on Good to Soft and 1 from 1 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 8.05am Tuesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms were showing a movement towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

4.00 Warwick : George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG 16th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place 3f out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 8-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Since mid-September, which was the last time of any his seven rivals won a race, this 6 yr old gelding has had ten consecutive top 4 finishes (9 in the first three home), culminating in a win over this class, course and distance ten days ago.

That win took him to 4 wins and 5 places from 14 starts over the track and trip, including..

  • 4 wins, 4 places from 11 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 in blinkers
  • and 3 wins, 3 places from 7 under today's jockey, Jonathan Fisher (all at C6, whilst wearing blinkers)

Moreover, since the start of 2016 in A/W handicaps here at Southwell, horses sent off at odds ranging from 11/10 to 7/1 within 30 days of an LTO win at the same class, course and distance are 37 from 112 (33% SR) for 37.1pts (+33.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 31/90 (34.4%) for 40.7pts (+45.2%) from male runners
  • 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.4pts (+39.5%) at Class 6
  • 19/51 (37.3%) for 26.4pts (+51.8%) during January/February
  • 17/37 (45.9%) for 44.4pts (+119.9%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 26.05pts (+78.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
  • 14/35 (40%) for 19pts (+54.3%) within 10 days of their last run
  • and 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.7pts (+119.4%) over this 7f C&D...

...whilst Class 6 males racing over 6/7f during December to February are 6 from 13 (46.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+177.4% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!