Stat of the Day, 10th March 2020

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Monday's pick was...

5.40 Wolverhampton : Nezar @ 7/1 BOG 9th at 11/1 (Took keen hold, prominent, lost place over 1f out) : got that one very wrong.

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roxyfet @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on soft ground worth £2,989 to the winner... 

Why?...

Very number heavy today, so I'll break it down in to four sections, starting with...

...the horse, a 10 yr old gelding showing no signs of slowing down. A winner of 3 of his last four starts, having finished 221P11 in his last six (all here over C&D) and now seeks a hat-trick to add to an already decent 12 wins and 13 places from 71 that includes of note today...

  • 11 w, 12pl from 64 going left handed
  • 12+11/57 without headgear
  • 9+10/37 here at Sedgefield
  • 9+8/33 over 2m0.5f-2m1f
  • 9+8/32 at Class 5 for less than £3,500
  • 9+7/30 at 6/1 or shorter
  • 7+5/24 in Feb/March
  • 6+7/24 over fences at C&D
  • 6+8/29 on soft ground
  • and 3 wins from 4 under today's jockey...

...Emma Chaston-Smith, whose career record to date stands at 14 wins from 98 (+14.3% SR) for 18pts (+18.4% ROI), and those include of relevance here...

  • 13/82 (15.9%) for 26.1pts (+31.9%) since the start of 2018
  • 11/51 (21.6%) for 42.1pts (+82.5%) for trainer Micky Hammond (more on him very shortly)
  • 5/18 (27.8%) for 21.2pts (+117.6%) over fences
  • and 4/20 (20%) for 11.2pts (+56%) here at Sedgefield.

Now back to trainer Micky Hammond, because his handicap chasers are 16 from 60 (26.7% SR) for 15.2pts (+25.4% ROI) when sent off at 7/1 or shorter here at Sedgefield since the start of 2015, all males and with the following results under today's conditions...

  • 15/50 (30%) for 22.6pts (+45.2%) with those rested for 6-45 days
  • 14/52 (26.9%) for 17pts (+32.7%) with 7-10 yr olds
  • 9/36 (25%) for 8.68pts (+24.1%) on soft or worse ground
  • 8/20 (40%) for 21.5pts (+107.5%) in Feb/March
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 14.1pts (+47%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 14.6pts (+56.1%) at Class 5
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 6.88pts (+32.7%) over this 2m0.5f C&D
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 2.03pts (+20.3%) with LTO winners

And then, it makes sense (to me at least) with round off with a look at the trainer/jockey combination, as Micky & Emma are 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 47.1pts (+102.4% ROI) when teaming up in handicaps, from which the following baker's dozen of profitable angles are all at play...

  • 10/41 (24.4%) for 48.8pts (+119.1%) with male runners
  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 50.8pts (+130.3%) in Feb/March
  • 8/31 (25.8%) for 46.2pts (+149.1%) on soft or worse ground
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 45.7pts (+163.1%) in 8-12 runner contests
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 44.8pts (+172.5%) with 8-10 yr olds
  • 8/25 (32%) for 46.7pts (+186.8%) at Class 5
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 29.6pts (+211.4%) at odds of 4/1 to 7/1
  • 5/20 (25%) for 28.4pts (+142%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 5/20 (25%) for 13.6pts (+68%) when Emma claims 7lbs
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 26.9pts (+192.2%) with horses rested for less than three weeks
  • 4/16 (25%) for 15.2pts (+94.9%) here at Sedgefield
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.5pts (+183%) over 2m0.5f-2m1f
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 14.12pts (+141.2%) over fences

Congratulations if you've made it all the way through those numbers, I realise that not everyone is as interested as I am in them, but hopefully your patience will be rewarded...

...if you decide to place...a 1pt win bet on Roxyfet @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Hills, Unibet & Paddy Power at 8.05am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

4.15 Ayr : Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up mid-division, tracked leaders after 6th, challenged 3 out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance last, but no extra on flat) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nezar @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

On a day where racing seems to have gone for quantity rather than quality, I'm fairly disinterested, but I do think this one is too big a price not to consider, even if he drifts further in the market!

He was only headed very late on and subsequently beaten by a short head at 10/1 last time out, when racing over today's 7f trip at Kempton 34 days ago, but comes here with the benefit of some rest and a drop in class. His overall record isn't brilliant, but isn't bad for a 9 yr old approaching the 70-race mark, having won 7 of 65 so far.

The resultant 10.77% strike rate is respectable, but does improve under conditions faced today ie...

  • 33.33% (6/18) at Class 5
  • 30.77% (4/13) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25% (2/8) over course and distance
  • 20.69% (6/29) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 16.28% (7/43) without headgear (0/22 with!)
  • and 11.54% (6/52) after a break of less than 5 weeks...

...whilst without headgear in 5-10 runner, Class 5 contests less than five weeks since he last ran, he is 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 16.2pts (+180% ROI) including 3 from 4 here at Wolverhampton and 2 from 3 over course and distance.

Also, since the start of 2016, his trainer, Dean Ivory's handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 12/1 when dropping down a class are 26 from 139 (18.7% SR) for 35.8pts (+25.8% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 23/103 (22.3%) for 54.5pts (+52.9%) from males
  • 22/101 (21.8%) for 51.8pts (+51.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 19/77 (24.7%) for 51.3pts (+66.6%) at 16-60 days since last run
  • 18/92 (19.6%) for 40.7pts (+44.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.8pts (+47.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.7pts (+110.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.63pts (+18.8%) in March

The bulk of the winners appear to fall in the first four categories listed and SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't attempt to put a composite angle together for you, would it?

So, here goes...males at 6f to 1m for £0-4k at 16-60 dslr = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+228.5% ROI), from which 8/16 (50%) in fields of 9-11 runners, 3/7 (42.9%) at Wolverhampton and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 9-11 at Wolves...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nezar @ 7/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th March 2020

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Friday's pick was...

3.10 Chelmsford : Krazy Paving @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Chased leader, challenged going well over 2f out, carried right and led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on soft ground worth £3,184 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old mare has 2 wins and 2 places from her 7 handicap hurdles efforts since the start of 2019, including 2 from 6 under today's jockey, 2 from 3 here at Ayr, culminating in a win here over 3m0.5f on heavy ground last time out, 48 days ago with today's rider Henry Brooke in the saddle.

Her trainer, Julia Brooke, doesn't have the largest string of runners at her disposal, nor is she a prolific winner, but she does well here at Ayr, where her runners are four times more likely to win as they would elsewhere with this track providing 21.4% of her career winners from just 6.4% of her total runners!

Numerically, we're looking at a career record of 28/298 (9.4% SR) generating 6 winners from 19 (31.6% SR) for 32.5pts (+171.2% ROI) here at Ayr, as opposed to 22 from 279 (7.9%) elsewhere and although we're not talking about huge numbers here, those six Ayr winners include of relevance today...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 33.5pts (+186.2%) in handicaps
  • 6/12 (50%) for 39.5pts (+329.3%) with 8-10 yr olds
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 31.1pts (+207.1%) in NH races
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 15.7pts (+120.5%) since the start of 2019
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.7pts (+218.6%) at odds of 2/1 to 5/1
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 31.1pts (+282.9%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 25.7pts (+233.2%) over hurdles
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 25.7pts (+233.2%) at Class 5
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.3pts (+175.2%) for jockey Henry Brooke...

...whilst since the start of 2019, Julia's 8-10 yr old NH handicappers at 2/1 to 5/1 here at Ayr have won 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 19.2pts (+480% ROI), including 3 for Henry Brooke, 2 at Class 5, 2 over hurdles and 2 in races worth less than £4k...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.55am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

4.45 Wincanton : Le Boizelo @ 4/1 BOG WON at 3/1 (Soon towards rear, behind 5th, good headway on outside chasing leaders 13th, chance 3 out, went 2nd before next where left well clear, eventually winning by 12 lengths) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Krazy Paving @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £3,170 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty much like yesterday, in that the racing on offer today isn't much to write home (or anywhere!) about, so I'm keeping it simple again with an in-form runner who should be suited by conditions.

Trainer Olly Murphy's runners have 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings on the A/W this year (last 7 weeks to be more precise) and some of that is down to this 8 yr old gelding, who himself has four wins from his last eight runs and comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back wins over this grade, course and distance last month under today's jockey.

Those wins took his own A/W record to an impressive 7/34 (20.6% SR) for 22.1pts (+64.9% ROI) and this includes of relevance today...

  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 23.1pts (+69.9%) over 6f
  • 7/28 (25%) for 28.1pts (+100.3%) within 50 days of his last run
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 38.1pts (+211.5%) during January to March
  • 6/31 (19.4%) for 22.3pts (+71.9%) in handicaps
  • 6/30 (20%) for 14.6pts (+48.8%) on Standard going
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 16.6pts (+59.4%) going left handed
  • 6/25 (24%) for 22pts (+88%) in blinkers
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 20.3pts (+96.7%) in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 6/20 (30%) for 21.3pts (+106.5%) on Polytrack
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 23.2pts (+166%) for trainer Olly Murphy
  • 3/6 950%) for 10.3pts (+171.5%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 9pts (+450%) with Grace McEntee in the saddle (his last two runs)

And with him being drawn in stall 6 with a liking for racing prominently, the unique Geegeez pace/draw heat map also suggests we should get a good run for our money...

...all of which led me to...a 1pt win bet on Krazy Paving @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th March 2020

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Wednesday's pick was...

4.30 Lingfield : Will To Win @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Led 1f, with leader, led just over 1f out, soon ridden, headed and not quicken inside final furlong) : right trainer, wrong horse!

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Wincanton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Le Boizelo @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m1½f on soft ground worth £8,447 to the winner...

Why?...

Generally pretty poor racing at this time of year pre-Cheltenham, but today looks more desperate than ever, so I'm going to keep it really short and simple with a 9 yr old gelding, who has won at this track, acts on heavy ground, stays further than today, has won under today's jockey and has won in this grade.

He also tends to do well at shorter (ie 5/1 max) odds and has 3 wins going right handed, including two over fences.

He is trained by Robert Walford less than 20 miles away from this track at Okeford Fitzpaine, Dorset, but despite that proximity, the yard only send 5 or 6 chasers here every year, but they do well enough to make the journey worthwhile.

Since 2015, Mr Walford's Class 2 to 4 handicap chasers sent off at evens to 12/1 are 5 from 27 (18.5% SR) for 7.26pts (+26.9% ROI) profit, all from male runners, including...

  • 4/16 (25%) for 4.35pts (+27.2%) at odds of 7/4 to 6/1
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 19.8pts (+283.4%) with those rested for 1 to 2 months

...whilst those returning from such a break to run at 7/4 to 6/1 are 2 from 5 (40% SR) for 7.93pts (+158.5% ROI).

I told you it would be short and simple...

...as that's the basis for...a 1pt win bet on Le Boizelo @ 4/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.15am Thursday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wincanton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2020

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Tuesday's pick was...

3.00 Exeter : Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Prominent, led after 3rd, headed 11th, rallied 4 out, chased winner next, kept on under pressure) : you know your luck's out when you get done by a 66/1 shot!

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Will To Win @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on polytrack worth £7,246 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yr old gelding has been in immaculate form since switching from turf to A/W last year. Fifth on Good to Firm ground on his race debut at Newmarket last June and then switched to the A/W where he is now 4 from 4, all at this 6f trip on left handed courses including...

  • 3 after 1-4 weeks rest, 3 for jockey Jack Mitchell and 3 this year
  • 2 in handicaps, 2 on Polytrack, 2 at Lingfield and therefore 2 over course and distance (inc LTO)
  • and 1 at Class 3 (LTO)

In addition to those excellent numbers, his trainer Simon Crisford does really well at this venue from a small, carefully selected number of runners sent here, about whom the market is often a good guide, as his handicappers sent off at odds of 7/4 to 6/1 are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 14.1pts (+44.1% ROI) profit on the A/W here, including of note/relevance today...

  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 17.02pts (+77.4%) in races worth less than £8,000
  • 8/20 (40%) for 12.48pts (+62.4%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 14.51pts (+96.7%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/15 (40%) for 12.34pts (+82.25%) with male runners
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 11.97pts (+85.5%) since the start of 2018
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 11.2pts (+186.6%) over this 6f C&D
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.74pts (+82%) in 3yo only races
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.02pts (+117%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 5.08pts (+127%) with previous course and distance winners

I don't really want to dilute the dataset too much to create an angle, but you might be interested to know that 3yr olds racing for less than £8k within a month of their last run are 6 from 9 (66.6% SR) for 13.97pts (+155.2% ROI), including males at 3/3 (100%) for 8.28pts (+276%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Will To Win @ 3/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Unibet at 8.05am Wednesday, with some 10/3 elsewhere at Hills & Spreadex but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2020

/by

Monday's pick was...

3.40 Wetherby : Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 8/1 (Chased leaders, outpaced in 4th 4 out, ridden after next, never on terms, weakened after last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on soft ground worth £3,899 to the winner...

Why?...

Big field, soft ground handicap chases aren't for the faint hearted, not even at this low grade of racing, but thankfully we've got a 7 yr old gelding who should relish the conditions.

A winner of each of his last three starts since blinkers were applied, all at 3m or beyond, all on soft or softer ground, all going right handed, all under jockey Conor Ring who again claims 3lbs and one win here at Exeter.

He's up another 5lbs for that latest win, but has had more than four weeks to get his his exertions and also takes a drop in class to run here today. He's not fazed by company (his wins were in fields of 10, 11 & 12 runners) and I expect another bold show today from this former heavy ground 3m PTP winner.

As for his trainer sending him here again, that's possibly because Evan Williams' runners are 20 from 91 (22% SR) for 65.7pts (+72.2% ROI) backed blindly here at Exeter since 2015.

Obviously I rarely (if ever) advocate backing every runner from a particular trainer at a track and I prefer to isolate certain profitable/relevant angles to our advantage and here's a baker's dozen of such possible lines of approach from those 91 runners...

  1.  18/77 (23.4%) for 65.8pts (+85.4%) from male runners
  2.  18/71 (25.4%) for 63.7pts (+89.7%) in races worth less than £11,000
  3.  14/51 (27.5%) for 62.5pts (+122.6%) in handicaps
  4.  13/47 (27.7%) for 54.4pts (+115.7%) with 6/7 yr olds
  5.  13/29 (44.8%) for 35.5pts (+122.5%) at odds of 6/4 to 5/1
  6.  12/42 (28.6%) for 49.7pts (+118.4%) at 26-90 days since they last ran
  7.  12/35 (34.3%) for 66.1pts (+188.8%) on soft ground
  8.  9/38 (23.7%) for 24.3pts (+63.9%) from chasers
  9.  8/22 (36.4%) for 15.9pts (+72.3%) at Class 5
  10.  5/24 (20.8%) for 37.9pts (+157.9%) at trips of 2m7.5f to 3m0.5f
  11.  5/14 (35.7%) for 27.6pts (+196.9%) from LTO winners
  12.  5/10 (50%) for 21.41pts (+214.1%) with handicap chasers sent off at 6/4 to 15/2
  13.  and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.22pts (+191.3%) from those with one previous course win...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Tuesday, with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Southwell : Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 (Made all, clear from 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on strongly and won unchallenged by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on heavy ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring at today's class and trip under today's jockey on soft ground at relatively nearby Catterick 31 days ago and despite going up in weight, he still runs off a winnable mark today.

He now has 6 wins and 6 further places from 23 efforts over fences and today's conditions look ideal for him as those 23 races have yielded...

  • 6 wins, 5 places from 17 at odds of Evens to 5/1
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 20 at Class 4
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 19 in cheekpieces
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 after less than 5 weeks rest
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 off a mark (OR) of 100-110
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 11 at trips of 2m½f to 2m4f
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 6 on heavy ground

...and Casual Cavalier is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 12.12pts (+202% ROI) when sent off at Evs to 5/1 wearing cheekpieces in a Class 4 chase over a trip of 2m½f to 2m4f off a mark of 100-110 after less than five weeks rest, including 2 from 2 for 4.81pts on heavy ground.

His trainer Tristan Davidson has had an excellent last couple of years and has been profitably follow blindly across all three (Flat, A/W & NH) disciplines, a feat rarely achieved, but we're obviously just going to look at his record in this code today, because...

...his NH runners are 22 from 72 (30.6% SR) for 52.33pts (+72.7% ROI) over those last two years and here are just 10 of the ways he got those winners under conditions faced today...

  1.  21/61 (34.4%) for 59.8pts (+98%) in races worth less than £8,000
  2.  20/62 (32.3%) for 49.9pts (+80.5%) from male runners
  3.  20/52 (38.5%) for 64.4pts (+123.8%) within 65 days of their last run
  4.  18/60 (30%) for 50.9pts (+84.9%) with Harry Reed in the saddle
  5.  18/41 (43.9%) for 30.8pts (+75.1%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  6.  16/54 (29.6%) for 31.7pts (+58.7%) in handicaps
  7.  12/32 (37.5%) for 51.1pts (+159.8%) over trips of 2m½f to 2m6f
  8.  12/32 (37.5%) for 32.6pts (+101.9%) at Class 4
  9.  6/11 (54.6%) for 25.6pts (+232.4%) during March to April
  10.  and 5/14 (35.7%) for 8pts (+57.1%) over fences...

...whilst males sent off at Evens to 5/1 under Harry Reed for less than £8k within 65 days of their last run are 12 from 19 (63.2% SR) for 34.4pts (+181.1% ROI), including...

  • 10 from 16 in handicaps
  • 8 from 12 at Class 4
  • 6 from 8 over 2m½f to 2m6f
  • 5 from 5 in March/April
  • and 3 from 7 over fences...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.00am Monday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th February 2020

/by

Friday's pick was...

7.15 Newcastle : Watheer @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Prominent, driven to challenge over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on until no extra and lost place towards finish and beaten by two lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding has won 6 of 20 (30% SR) so far, an impressive return that includes the following under today's conditions...

  • 5/17 in handicaps
  • 5/16 wearing a tongue tie
  • 5/15 in cheekpieces
  • 5/13 at 6-25 dslr
  • 5/8 at 9/4 to 4/1
  • 3/11  at 1m6f and beyond
  • 3/10 in fields of 1-7 runners
  • and 2/9 under today's jockey, Richard Kingscote...

...whilst he is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 9.5pts (+237.2%) when sent off at 9/4 to 4/1 wearing both cheekpieces and a tongue tie in handicaps after a rest of 6-25 days. All are at 1m6f and beyond, including 2/2 in fields of 1 to 7 and 1 from 2 for Richard Kingscote.

The trainer (Tom Dascombe) / jockey partnership is a well worn farrow stat-wise, so I won't go there today, so let's find some other angles to back up the selection.

The sire, Animal Kingdom's offspring are 14 from 42 (33.3% SR) for 294.5pts (+701.3% ROI) on the Flat/AW beyond 1m3f, including of note today...

  • 13/35 (37.1%) for pts (+25.7%) in handicaps
  • 12/20 (60%) for 22.5pts (+112.5%) at Evens to 4/1
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 4.71pts (+16.3%) in 3-8 runner contests
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 299.9pts (+1153.4%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 3.01pts (+13.7%) at 1m6f and beyond
  • and 6/24 (25%) for 291.7pts (+1215.3%) from males...

..whilst those sent off at Evens to 4/1 in 3-8 runner handicaps after a break of 1-25 days are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 13.06pts (+130.6% ROI).

And now back to the trainer, Tom Dascombe, whose record here at Southwell over the last six years is excellent at 12 wins from 43 (27.9% SR) and profits of 60.3pts represent a 140.2% return on stakes.

Despite only having less than 50 runners here in six years, there are still a whole host of profitable/relevant angles at play today, so here are "just" a dozen ways of how he got those 12 winners...

  1. Males : 12/41 (29.3%) for 62.3pts (+151.9%)
  2. 3-7 yr olds : 11/29 (37.9%) for 51.9pts (+179.1%)
  3. Handicappers : 9/34 (26.5%) for 55.4pts (+163%)
  4. His only runner here on the day : 9/27 (33.3%) for 56.8pts (+210.4%)
  5. Those who raced in the previous 30 days : 9/27 (33.3%) for 48.3pts (+178.7%)
  6. During Feb-April : 9/22 (40.9%) for 53.3pts (+242.1%)
  7. In fields of 7-9 runners : 8/19 (42.1%) for 47.7pts (+250.9%)
  8. With his only runner all day : 7/20 (35%) for 28.9pts (+145%)
  9. At 7/4 to 5/1 : 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.9pts (+77.2%)
  10. Under Richard Kingscote : 6/24 (25%) for 26.1pts (+108.6%)
  11. In cheekpieces : 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.54pts (+68.6%)
  12. And those with just 1 previous run in the preceding 90 days are 3/9 (33.3%) for 22.8pts (+253.5%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.45am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2020

/by

Thursday's pick was...

3.25 Ludlow : Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG PU at 3/1 (Held up, headway 13th, mistake next, weakened before 4 out, pulled up before 3 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Watheer @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 7, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £2,523 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has finished 212 in his last three runs and now drops into this basement grade for the first time, where I'm hoping he'll just be a bit too good. He has the benefit of a track specialist on board today, as jockey Callum Rodriguez is 42 from 238 (17.7% SR) for 126.1pts (+53% ROI) on the Tapeta here at Newcastle, including 14 from 51 (27.5%) for 106.5pts (+208.7%) in 1m course and distance handicaps.

Trainer Roger Fell often sends horses back out fairly quickly to good effect and since the start of 2018, his A/W handicappers rested for less than three weeks are 29 from 176 (16.5% SR) for 254.3pts (+144.5% ROI), from which those racing over trips of a mile or shorter are 25 from 137 (18.25%) for 277.8pts (+202.8%)

And my third and final (hurray, he's keeping it brief!) set of data for today tells us that Roger Fell's Class 4 or lower handicappers wearing cheekpieces and racing over trips shorter than 1m1f are 11 from 60 (18.3% SR) for 119.3pts (+198.9% ROI) since the start of 2017 when they've worn that headgear on fewer than three previous occasions, including...

  • 11/47 (23.4%) for 132.3pts (+281.6%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 5/20 (25%) for 95.7pts (+478.7%) on the A/W
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 75.9pts (+444.4%) on tapeta
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 2.21pts (+20.1%) after a top 2 finish LTO...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Watheer @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.05am Friday with plenty 11/4 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!