Stat of the Day, 4th December 2019

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Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Led until 5th, lost place 5 out, well beaten before 3 out )

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maazel @ 7/2 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a runner-up at Lingfield just 4 days ago and gets the opportunity to go one better off the same mark today. He had the worst of the draw at the weekend, but has a more favourable stall today and is expected to go well again.

Trainer Lee Carter's horses are in great form, all eight runners over the last fortnight have made the frame, with two of them taking Gold, including a win and a place from two efforts here at Kempton.

His record with quick returners is decent, especially in similar circumstances to today, as...

...since the start of 2016, Lee Carter's Class 6 A/W handicappers sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 16/1 after less than three weeks rest are 11 from 49 (22.5% SR) for 77.5pts (+158.1% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 76.3pts (+200.8%) from male runners
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 84.3pts (+281.1%) from 5-9 yr olds

...whilst 5-9 yr old males are 10 from 28 (35.7% SR) for 86.3pts (+308.3% ROI) and you could stop there and back all of them, but if you wanted to drill down further...

  • 5 yr olds are 5/12 (41.7%) for 41.7pts (+347.7%)
  • LTO runners-up are 5/8 (62.5%) for 47.4pts (+592.4%)
  • over 7f, it's 3/9 (33.3%) for 33.8pts (+375.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 36.8pts (+613%) over 7 furlongs
  • LTO runners-up are 3/5 (60%) for 37.8pts (+756%) over 7f
  • 5yr olds are 3/4 (75%) for 38.8pts (+970%) after finishing second LTO
  • and 5yr old, LTO runners-up are also 3/4 (75%) for 38.8pts (+970%) over a 7f trip...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maazel @ 7/2 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 and SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2019

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Monday's pick was...

4.45 Wolverhampton : Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/4 (Raced wide close up, pushed along and headway 2f out, soon chased leader, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, led close home, winning by a nose!)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Conditional Jockeys Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

It has been almost 11 months and nine defeats since this 11 yr old gelding last ran off a mark (OR) lower than 120 (my 50th birthday to be precise, but that's another matter!) and that was also his last win, so I'm glad to see him back off a winnable mark and not having any younger, fitter runners to deal with.

He's never been prolific (5/46 = 10.9% SR), but a quick look a this wins/best runs would suggest he's more likely to win any/some/all of the following are present...

  • a run in the previous 7 weeks (ran 19 days ago)
  • sent off at 5/1 or shorter (we're on at 10/3)
  • going left handed (tick)
  • handicap chases (tick)
  • soft or worse (heavy today)
  • OR lower than 120 (119 here)
  • wearing cheekpieces (tick)
  • running at Class 3/4 (C3 today)

...and when going left handed at 5/1 or shorter after 6 weeks rest or less, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.41pts (+148.1% ROI) including 2 from 2 on soft or worse and 1/1 on heavy.

He is trained by Venetia Williams, one of my trainers to watch in the closing stages of the year (and also one of the trainers that switched me on to the statistical side of betting, but again that's another story for another day), as her chasers are 104 from 567 (18.3% SR) for 227.2pts (+40.1% ROI) during the closing two months of the year over the past nine years, with every year bar 2017 showing healthy strike rates and ROI figures.

And from the 567 November/December chasers since 2011...

  • 99/514 (19.3%) for 218.9pts (+42.6%) in handicaps
  • 98/515 (19%) for 237.9pts (+46.2%) from male runners
  • 94/474 (19.8%) for 204.5pts (+43.2%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 71/361 (19.7%) for 116.5pts (+32.3%) on soft/heavy (the stat probably most well known)
  • 49/233 (21%) for 106.1pts (+45.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 29/134 (21.6%) for 63.6pts (+47.5%) off marks of 110-120
  • and 13/72 (18.1%) for 42pts (+58.3%) since the start of 2018 (so we're not using old data as a crutch!)

...whilst from the above, Class 2-4 male handicappers on soft or worse are 59/265 (22.3% SR) for 108.6pts (+41% ROI), a handy little micro for 30-ish bets a year, but if 15 or so bets in a month from one angle is too much, then you could re-filter using the initial parameters to get...

  • 31/109 (28.4%) for 90.4pts (+83%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 19/78 (24.4%) for 25.1pts (+32.2%) off an OR of 110-120
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 18.65pts (+53.3%) off 110-120 at 1-25 dslr
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 17.67pts (+50.5%) in 2018/19
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.5pts (+283.3%) at 1-25 dslr in 2018/19
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.82pts (+97.7%) off 110-120 in 2018/19
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.27pts (+106.8%) off 110-120 at 1-25 dslr in 2018/19...

...and this possible over-dilution points to...a 1pt win bet on Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (10/3)  or Coral/Ladbrokes (3/1) or Betfair/PaddyPower/Hills (3/1) respectively (third grouping not BOG until raceday, mind) at 5.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2019

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Saturday's pick was...

3.25 Lingfield : Pearl Spectre @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led 2f out, ridden and headed just inside final furlong, no extra)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Probably about the bottom end of the odds range I'm comfortable with, but (a) there should still be some value about the price and (b) I think our boy has more than a 28.5% chance of winning here, but what of him?

Well, he's a 5 yr old gelding who in 10 starts this year has 3 wins, 4 runner-up finishes and one other place and has been the runner-up in each of his last three starts (more on that shortly). To date, he has 4 wins and 3 places from 15 on the All-Weather and these include of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 13 in handicaps
  • 3+3 from 12 going left handed
  • 3+2 from 9 on Standard going
  • 3+3 from 8 this year
  • 3+2 from 9 after 10-20 days off track
  • 3 from 5 here at Wolverhampton
  • 3 from 4 at 1m3f-1m4f
  • 2+1 from 3 at odds shorter than 7/2
  • 2+1 from 3 as favourite
  • and 2 from 3 at 1m4f

His trainer, Grant Tuer, is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 11.34pts (+94.5% ROI) in handicaps on this this track over the last 12 months, including 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 16.34pts (+233.5%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which there are 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 10.4pts (+260%) over this 1m4f course and distance.

And now back to the horse's recent 222 form line, which is more common than you'd possibly think, since...in UK Flat/AW Class 3-5 handicaps at odds of 11/1 and shorter, those with a 222 form line who were beaten by less than 15 lengths LTO in the previous 2 months are 97 from 388 (25% SR) for 101.1pts (+26.1% ROI) since 2013, with the following applicable today...

  • 65/174 (37.4%) for 58.8pts (+33.8%) at odds of 6/5 to 7/2
  • 20/59 (33.9%) for 49.6pts (+84%) from 5 yr olds
  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 37.9pts (+82.4%) at 1m3f-1m4f

...whilst if you wanted a micro based around the above with near 40% strike rates and ROI, then 2-8 yr olds over 5f to 1m4f at 6/5 to 7/2 are 58/149 (38.9% SR) for 58.5pts (+39.3% ROI)...

...pointing towardss...a 1pt win bet on Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG as was offered in a handful of places at 5.00pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (BOG from midnight) were a quarter point longer for those not expecting a drift. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!