Stat of the Day, 14th March 2020
Friday's pick was...
6.00 Southwell : Gorgeous General @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Led, headed over 3f out, weakened inside final furlong) : another poor show in what has been a wretched week, if I'm honest.
Saturday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Jimmy @ 3/1 BOG
...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m2f on soft ground worth £3,671 to the winner...
Why?...
Firstly, trainer Chris Gordon is in decent form right now, aside from a longshot that was expectedly well beaten at Cheltenham this week, his runners have 3 wins and 2 places from 10 starts this month and his name cropped up in a couple of angles I have stored, starting with...
...Chris Gordon + handicap hurdles + Evens to 10/1 + soft or softer + 2016-20 = 22/107 (20.6% SR) for 45.4pts (+42.4% ROI), from which...
- 18/74 (24.3%) for 56pts (+75.7%) in fields of 7-12 runners
- 4/10 (40%) for 23.4pts (+234%) at 3m1.5f/3m2f
- and 3/6 (50%) for 25.32pts (+422%) in fields of 7-12 over 3m1.5f/3m2f
The second angle is a little more general , as Chris' "winter" (ie Oct-April) runners over 3m1f to 3m3f are 14/66 (21.2% SR) for 60.4pts (+91.5% ROI) including the following of relevance today...
- 14/64 (21.9%) for 62.4pts (+97.5%) in handicaps
- 14/64 (21.9%) for 62.4pts (+97.5%) with male runners
- 10/40 (25%) for 27pts (+67.5%) over hurdles
- 9/29 (31%) for 35.3pts (+121.8%) in races worth less than £4k
- 6/21 (28.6%) for 32.3pts (+153.8%) with horses rested for 4-9 weeks
- 6/18 (33.3%) for 15.8pts (+87.6%) during Feb/March
- and 5/15 (33.3%) for 16.4pts (+109.2%) at Fontwell
...whilst male handicap hurdlers competing for less than £4k after less than 9 weeks rest are 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 26.6pts (+147.7% ROI) and these include...
- 5/8 (62.5%) for 21.4pts (+267.1%) during Feb/March
- 3/4 (75%) for 9.4pts (+234.4%) here at Fontwell
- and 2/2 (100%) for 4.9pts (+245%) here at Fontwell in Feb/March
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Jimmy @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & 888Sport at 8.50am Saturday with plenty of 11/4 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Fontwell
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
I do not think moving too mornings has helped in the slightest .Mostly better odds are achievable the evening before racing and has a whole even considering not getting BOG it is still more economical .