Stat of the Day, 8th February 2020
Friday's pick was...
3.05 Southwell : Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch on outside, headway into 2nd over 3f out, challenged 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, no extra towards finish) - the lack of a finish showed why he's now 0/19.
Saturday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG
...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £8,058 to the winner...
Why?...
This 6 yr old gelding was quite well beaten back in fourth place last time out, four weeks ago, but in his defence that was a Grade 2 contest where he was unable to run his usual race from the front, as he had done when winning a Class 3 race at Plumpton two starts ago, under today's jockey Jonjo O'Neill (Jnr).
Back down at Class 3 and reunited with Jonjo, I'd expect him to be a different proposition today.
Jonjo is riding well of late and his 3 wins from 12 (25% SR) over the last week isn't a purple patch, as not only is he 13 from 53 (24.5%) over the past month, he;s also 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 24pts (+133.3% ROI) in handicaps here at Newbury over the last 12 months, including of relevance today...
- 5/12 (41.7%) for 30pts (+250%) at odds shorter than 12/1
- 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.25pts (+91.7%) over fences
- 3/6 (50%) for 27.9pts (+465.4%) at 2m4½f to 3m
- and 2/5 (40%) for 10.14pts (+202.8%) at Class 3
...whilst trainer Colin Tizzard's Newbury handicappers sent off at 12/1 and shorter since the start of 2016 are 12 from 34 (35.3% SR) for 44.4pts (+130.6% ROI) : all males. Now, despite 34 runners not being a huge number to work from, there are actually plenty of different successful/profitable angles to be derived, suggesting conditions might be in our pick's favour today, as of the 34 original qualifiers...
- 12/25 (48%) for 53.4pts (+213.6%) after at least 3 weeks rest
- 11/29 (37.9%) for 41.5pts (+143.2%) over fences
- 11/26 (42.3%) for 48.1pts (+184.9%) at the ages of 6-10
- 11/26 (42.3%) for 47.6pts (+183.2%) in 4-12 runner contests
- 9/17 (52.9%) for 34.3pts (+201.6%) in races worth £6-12k
- 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.4pts (+155.2%) at Class 3
- 8/12 (66.6%) for 24pts (+200%) at odds of 5/1 or shorter
- 7/18 (38.9%) for 25.6pts (+142.4%) from those either beaten by 10 lengths or more LTO or who didn't finish
- 5/11 (45.5%) for 13pts (+117.9%) with class droppers
- and 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.67pts (+227.8%) on Good ground...
...and if you wanted a composite micro from the above (mindful of a dilution of numbers, of course), you could try 5-10 yr olds returning from 3+ weeks rest to run in a 4-12 runner chase worth £6-12k for 8 winners from 13 (61.5% SR), all at Class 3 and giving 30.4pts profit at an ROI of 233.8%, including...
- 6/8 (75%) for 17.47pts (+218.3%) at 5/1 or shorter
- 5/7 (71.4%) for 23pts (+328.4%) from those defeated by 10L+ or DNF last time out
- 4/4 (100%) for 15.67pts (+391.6%) on Good ground
- and 2/4 (50%) for 2,54pts (+63.5%) from class droppers...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.45am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newbury
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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