Stat of the Day, 7th December 2019
Friday's pick was...
1.20 Sandown : Johnbb @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/4 (Close up, tracked leaders 3 out, ridden to lead on landing last, ran on to win by a 3.25 lengths)
Saturday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Native Robin @ 4/1
...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on currently Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...
Why?...
This 9 yr old gelding is a consistent sort, finishing 123222 in his last six outings and despite not winning any of the last five, he still boasts an impressive 5 wins from 16 over fences, including...
- 5/13 under today's jockey Nick Scholfield
- 4/9 at Class 4
- 4/6 in December/January
- 3/7 going right handed
- and 2/3 in December
Aside from the above, this horse's name kept cropping up when I was going through my list of possible qualifiers, so I'm going to keep the separate stats brief.
We'll start by saying that the yard is in good nick too, with 5 winners from 19 in the past fortnight, including 4/12 in the last week, whilst since the start of 2017, Jeremy Scott's handicap jumpers are 23 from 80 (28.75% SR) for 16.84pts (+21% ROI) when sent off shorter than 7/1 on soft/heavy ground.
Whilst since 2014, Jeremy's Class 4 handicap chasers are 40/197 (20.3% SR) for 77.5pts (+39.3% ROI), with Nick Scholfield riding 17 winners from 79 (21.5%), whilst clocking up 38.2pts (+48.4%) profit.
And in that same 2014-19 time frame, Jeremy's sub-12/1 handicap chasers dropping in class are 18/46 (39.1% SR) for 90.6pts (+196.9% ROI) with Nick Scholfield once again being the go-to guy with an 11/24 (45.8%) record producing profits of 69.4pts (+289.3%)
Also, since 2014, when a handicap chaser has been Jeremy Scott's only runner of the day, he's has 24 winners from 123 (19.5% SR) for 79.5pts (+65.2% ROI) profit with lower grade (ie C4/5) runners winning 20 of 86 (23.2%) for 81.3pts (+95.7%).
And finally, I'll wrap this one up with a quick nod to Native Robin's recent form, since in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases since 2012, horses sent off shorter than 5/1 after finishing 222 in their previous three outings are 38 from 110 (34.6% SR) for 35.9pts (+32.6% ROI) when they'd last ran 11-45 days earlier. This includes 10 winners from 18 (55.6%) for 17.42pts (+96.8%) over 2m3.5f/2m4f ...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 as was offered by Hills at 4.50pm on Friday. Hills were the only price available as I went to press, but another 8 firms went on to match that price, including some BOG firms. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...
...click here for the betting on the 12.20 Chepstow
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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