2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 12th March 2020)

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

DAY THREE: Thursday 12th March 2020

13:30 Marsh Novices' Chase   2m 4f

2019 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL 3/1 fav
Trainer – Philip Hobbs
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

• 7 of the 9 winners were Irish-trained
• The last 9 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 9 winners
• 7 of the last 9 winners had won a Graded Chase before
• 7 of the last 9 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
• 8 of the last 9 past winners had run at the Festival before (4 had won)
• 8 of the 9 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 7 of the last 9 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
• 8 of the last 9 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 8 of the last 9 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
• 7 of the last 9 winners won last time out
• 5 of the last 9 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 6 of the last 9 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
• 7 year-olds have won 6 of last 9 renewals

Negatives….

• Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
• Just two British-trained winners so far
• The top-rated horse is just 1 from 9
• Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
• 4 winning favourites in 9 runnings (1 co)
• Just 1 of the last 9 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
• Just 1 winner had been off for more than 54 days

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: SIRE DU BERLAIS 4/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

• 8 of the last 10 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
• Irish have won the last 4 runnings
• 9 of the last 12 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 10 of the last 19 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• The last 9 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 9 of the last 13 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
• The last 9 winners were rated between 138-148
• 9 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 10 of the last 13 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 8 of the last 19 winners won their last race
• 3 of the last 11 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 too
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won the last two runnings
• Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 4 winners

Negatives….

• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season are just 1 from 10
• Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
• 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• French-bred horses are currently on a run of 2-86
• All horses rated 150+ since 2000 have failed to finish in the top 2
• 2 winning favourites in last 14 years
• Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 18 (One third and two 2nds in the last 6 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 41

14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

2019 Winner: FRODON (9/2)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Bryony Frost

Pluses….

• 21 of the 29 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
• 6 of the last 7 winners were 2^nd season chasers
• 13 of the last 15 had won at Cheltenham previously
• 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 26)
• The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
• 12 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• 7 of the last 8 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 161+
• 4 of the last 15 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
• 11 of last 15 winners were fav or 2^nd fav
• 7 of the last 8 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
• Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time headgear (2 from 8)
• 8 of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win last time out
• Last 6 winners were French-bred

Negatives….

• The Irish are 3 from 51 runners in this race
• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• Avoid horses aged 11 or older
• Just one winner rated 160 or below
• Just 4 of the last 12 won last time out
• All winners ran 4 or less times that season
• No winner was having their Festival debut

15:30 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle 3m

2019 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (11/8 fav)
Trainer – Emma Lavelle
Jockey – Aidan Coleman

Pluses….

• 11 of the last 15 won last time out
• 11 of the last 19 winners were second season hurdlers
• 27 of the last 30 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
• 17 of the last 19 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 18 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 15 of the last 18 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 13 of the last 15 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race
• 15 of the last 23 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1^st or 2^nd last time out (2 from 20)
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
• Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
• Avoid front runners
• The Irish are have won the race just three times since 1995
• Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
• Previous Albert Bartlett winners have an overall poor record (1 from 16)
• Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 67
• Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 55)

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

2019 Winner: SIRUH DU LAC (9/2)
Trainer – Nick Williams
Jockey – Lizzie Kelly

Pluses….

• 27 of the last 32 winners were officially rated 141 or less
• 10 of the last 11 winners carried under 11-0
• Look out for French-breds
• 10 of the last 16 winners had won a race in Feb or March
• Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
• The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 22 runnings
• 16 of the last 19 winners returned at double-figure odds
• 20 of the last 28 winners had run at the Festival before (but 7 of last 9 were having Festival debut)
• 19 of the last 20 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
• 7 of the last 10 winners had 9 or less chase runs
• 17 of the last 20 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
• The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1951
• 2 winning favourites in the last 14 years
• Only 3 of last 25 won with 11st+
• Winners of a chase at Cheltenham before have an overall poor record, but the 2019 winner did defy this trend.
• Only 2 of the last 16 winners hadn’t run that calendar year

16:50 Daylesford Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f

2019 Winner: EGLANTINE DU SEUIL 50/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Noel Fehily

• A new race (Just four renewals)
• Favourites have won 3 of the four runnings
• 3 of the last 4 winners won last time out 3 of the 4 winners were French-bred
• 3 of the 4 winners were unbeaten that season
• Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 4 runnings (just 3 runners)
• All four winners have been aged 5 years-old
• Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019
• Owner Rich Ricci has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f

2019 Winner: ANY SECOND NOW (6/1)
Trainer – Ted Walsh
Jockey – Mr Derek O’Connor

Pluses….

• Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
• 9 of the last 12 winners failed to win earlier that season
• 3 of the last 9 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
• The last 8 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 7 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
• 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
  8 of the last 11 winners ran in February
• Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 18 of the last 20 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 8 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
• 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 11 winners
• Jockey Derek O’Connor 2^nd 3 times and 1^st in 2019
  Owner JP McManus often does well in the race

Negatives….

• Just three Irish winners for 36 years (but have won 3 of the last 6)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 21
• Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
• French breds are 0 from 59 since 2005
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 89 since 2009
• Just 1 of the last 17 winners won last time out

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