Sat TV Trends: 25th Jan 2020

Another massive day of horse racing this Saturday with 'Trials Day' up at Cheltenham – their last meeting before the Festival in March. Therefore, plenty more clues to be had, including top races like the Cleeve Hurdle and Cotswold Chase.

The ITV cameras are also heading to Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive SkyBet Chase – a race the Alan King yard have twice in the last four years.

As always, we got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RacingTV

14/16 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
13/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
10/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
9/16 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
9/16 – French bred (including last 7 winners)
8/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/16 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil  2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
5/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
4/16 – Trained by Alan King
4/16 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
3/16 – Won by a German bred horse
3/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
Nicky Henderson has trained 4 of the last 7 winners
The last three winners have been owned by JP McManus

2019 Winner: FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (J O’Brien) 4/1

13.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RacingTV

16/16 – Aged 8 or younger
15/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (2 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, Mister Whitaker 2018)
15/16 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
14/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Finished either 1^st or 2^nd last time out
13/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
12/16 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
12/16 – Rated 128 or higher
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/16 – Carried 11-2 or more
7/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/16 – French bred
3/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/16 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/16 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/16 – Winning favourites (none in the last 10 runnings)

2019 Winner: KILDSART (B Pauling) 9/2

1.50 – Paddy Power 45 Sleeps To Cheltenham Trophy Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV

14/16 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
14/16 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
14/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
14/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/16 – Rated 130 or higher
13/16 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
11/16 – Aged 8 or older
11/16 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won)
12/16 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
11/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner – Siruh Du Lac)
9/16 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/16 – Carried 10-7 or less
5/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Won by the Hobbs yard

2019 Winner: SIRUH DU LAC (N Williams) 6/1

2.25 – Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV

16/16 – Officially rated 151 or higher
15/16 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (9 had won)
15/16 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
13/16 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
11/16 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, but all placed 8th or better)
11/16 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/16 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/16 – Priced 7/1 or less
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
7/16 – Unplaced last time out
7/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/16 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/16 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
0/16 – Favourites
10 of the last 12 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2019 Winner: FRODON (P Nicholls) 9/4

3.00 – Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y ITV4

14/14 – Placed 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
13/14 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/14 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
12/14 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
11/14 – Favourites placed
11/14 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
11/14 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
11/14 – Won their latest race
10/14 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
9/14 – Priced 7/2 or less
8/14 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
5/14 – Favourites that won
4/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/14 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/14 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/14 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/14 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty

2019 Winner: BIRCHDALE (N Henderson) 2/1

3.35 – galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

14/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
14/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
13/15 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
12/15 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
12/15 – Officially rated 154 or higher
11/15 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/15 – Finished either 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
9/15 – Favourites placed
9/15 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
8/15 – Won their latest race
7/15 – Favourites that won
6/15 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable

Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

2019 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) 10/3

4.10 - Steel Plate And Sections Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Soft 2m1f RacingTV

15/15 – Rated 120 or higher
14/15 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
13/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
12/15 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
11/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
8/15 – Placed 1^st or 2^nd last time out
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
8/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/15 – French bred
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
10 of the last 11 winners carried 10-12 or less in weight

2019 Winner: BENNY’S BRIDGE (F O’Brien) 8/1

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

2.05 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
9/10 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/10 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Had raced at Doncaster before
3/10 – Winning favourite
The last 8 winners were all aged 5 or 6 years-old

2019 Winner: NADAITAK (B Pauling) 12/1

2.40 - Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

9 previous runnings
9/10 – Aged 8 or younger
9/10 – Had won over this trip before
9/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Won last time out
7/10 – Went onto run in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/10 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
5/10 – Irish bred
5/10 - Winning favourites

2019 Winner: LADY BUTTONS (P Kirby) Evs fav

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV

13/14 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
12/14 – Carried 11-2 or less
12/14 – Aged 9 or younger
11/14 – Officially rated 130 or higher
11/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/14 – Unplaced favourites
8/14 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 9/1

Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell

Other Stats:
4 of the last 13 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
5 of the last 13 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

2019 Winner: GO CONQUER (N Twiston-Davies) 8/1

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

• The Value of Horses’ Performance: Course, Distance, and C&D Winners Compared
• Chester 5f Draw
• Ghaiyyath seals Group One hat-trick with dominant International display
• The Logic of Sports Betting: Book Review
• Form Profiling: Five to Follow in 2020