Stat of the Day, 7th January 2020

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Monday's pick was...

1.35 Ayr : Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, headway into 3rd approaching 4 out, left in well held 2nd place 2 out, dropped to 3rd at the last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5,  Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner...

Why?...

No win in eleven for this for this 5 yr old gelding is probably not the first thing you wanted me to tell you about today's pick, but I'd quickly add that a run of results reading 334232 does suggest that a win is coming and isn't out of turn! In fact, he was only beaten by a head over course and distance off this mark, under today's jockey (Kieran O'Neill) LTO, 9 days ago.

He was headed in the final strides and trainer Robyn Brisland is now applying cheekpieces in a bid to eke a little more out of him in the finish to help him improve what is actually a respectable record for these type of lower grade A/W runners who seem to just take turns at beating each other.

To date he is 4 from 22 (18.2% SR) for 17.57pts (+79.9% ROI) despite his recent run of placed efforts, but what I found interesting looking at this profile was that all four wins have come under a set of conditions prevalent today ie...

  •  off a mark (OR) of 50-65
  • trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • A/W handicap races
  • left handed tracks
  • standard going
  • wearing a tongue tie...

...and when all of the above have been present as they are today, he is 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 29.57pts (+295.7% ROI) profit, including...

  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 16.25pts (+232.2%) here at Southwell
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.4pts (+342.3%) under Kieran O'Neill
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.75pts (+112.6%) over course and distance
  • 2/5 (40%) for 8.03pts (+160.6%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.75pts (+325.1%) within 10 days of his last run.

Those A/W stats aren't too surprising, if you knew that his sire is North Light, whose offspring are 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 51.2pts (+119.1% ROI) on the All-Weather over the last four years, including of relevance today...

  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 55.2pts (+141.5%) with male runners
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 56.2pts (+147.9%) over trips of 8.5 to 12 furlongs
  • 10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) on Standard going
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 59.2pts (+169.1%) from 4-8 yr olds
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 47.8pts (+145%) in handicaps
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+238.9%) at 6-15 days since they last ran...

...whilst 4-8 yr old males at 8.5-12 furlongs on Standard going are 10/30 (33.3% SR) for 64.2pts (+214% ROI), including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 55.8pts (+223.2%) in handicaps
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 41.2pts (+317.2%) at 6-15 dslr
  • and 5/10 (50%) for 40.1pts (+401%) in handicaps at 6-15 dslr...

...which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Ladbrokes (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.00am on Tuesday. (10/3 was widely available at 9.05am, whilst Coral were at 7/2.) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day: The 2019 Review

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*IMPORTANT: the email I sent this morning opened with "Let me start with the caveat. Free, potentially, yes; but risk-free"

It should have said "Free, potentially, yes; but NOT risk-free" - sincere apologies. Matt

Last Tuesday marked the end of SotD's eighth full calendar year since its inception as a non-tipping piece back in November 2011, so thank you to those of you (including Matt) for putting up with me all that time!

The logic behind this daily feature is to take a slight step from the normal form book/ race card approach to betting, since form is temporary at best and race cards are still largely inadequate, although Matt's efforts here at Geegeez are the exception to the rule.

My brief is to give some statistical pointers as to how you could frame a bet from another angle and whilst we don't expect all of them to win, we do expect a decent run for our money and often the stats we quote will pinpoint winners elsewhere too. So it's really more than a tip, it's a way-in to a bet that you can use over and over again.

We attract lots of new members to the site every year, thanks mainly to the continual improvements made to the racing toolkit and partly due to SotD's success, and this is bringing in more savvy punters looking for better data, information and racecards than they'll find anywhere else on the 'net, so here's briefly how I "do my bit"...

My first port of call is find runners who fit a stat (or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well. I have quite a large portfolio of saved micro-systems and angles (our Query Tool is brilliant for this) and they generate a list of possibles each day. I also look at the Shortlist report and the qualifiers generated from the Report Angles facility and I end up with a fairly long list of horses/races to assess.

I then cross off the races that I don't even want to consider and only then do I start to look at a race card. Where I have multiple selections in a race, I'll then make a decision on which would be my preferred runner in the race. At this point, I should now have less than 10 races/horses on my shortlist, I then put them in an order that I think reflects their likelihood of winning and at this point, I look at the prices.

Once I've got the prices, I cross out those that don't offer me enough perceived value and then the one that now stands top of the list is the daily selection. We aim to have the selection online in the early evening before racing (preferably by 6.00pm) where possible but occasionally due to home-life, travel plans and/or holidays, it can be later, but there's a selection every day except Sundays and we don't take Bank Holidays, Easter nor Christmas off!

That said, we are currently trialling a morning of racing delivery of Stat of the Day, with the pick generally online by 8.15am.

I try to find runners priced around the 11/4 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved, but sometimes I have to stray outside those parameters a little. A large proportion of selections are sent off at much shorter odds than advised, and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long-priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.

What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we did manage to make a profit yet again in 2019, but it was a real tough slog towards the end of the year, if I'm brutally honest.

Normally at this point, I'm typing this out with a fairly satisfied smile on my face, but the final quarter of the year gave us little to smile about. Nevertheless, the bigger picture is that we managed to secure yet another yearly profit, our eighth on the bounce. We're quietly proud of our record of profit in every year since SotD's inception, for what is essentially a free add-on to the Gold toolbox package, but we're also aware that recent form has been below long-term levels... although I think I said that form was only temporary anyway!

A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , and the overall picture for 2019 was as follows:

Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 290 (two fewer than 2018)
Winning Bets: 66 (67 in 2018)
Strike Rate: 22.76% (2018 = 22.95%)
Average payout from winning bet : 3.93/1 (2018 = 3.57/1)

Yearly Profit: 35.46pts (2018 = 14.16pts)
Profit on Stakes Invested: 12.23% (2018 was 4.85%)

From inception in November 2011 to end 2019: +531.87 points

The overall bottom line is still, we think, impressive and one that both Matt and I (it's a team game) are happy with; and, although I've been quite vocal in expressing my disappointment about the way 2019 fizzled out, a 12.23% return actually shows us in a good light against many of our peers.

We're already up and running for January, a month that has traditionally been kind to us, so fingers crossed for more of the same and a good year overall.

Many Thanks for being a part of Geegeez and SotD,
Chris, Matt and the whole Geegeez team.

***Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so if you're not part of our community already, why not take your £1/30-day trial now?

Click here for more details.

Monday Musings: What a difference a win makes!

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A New Year – A New Dawn? Maybe. What Sod’s Law, Say Nothing and co couldn’t deliver in any race for Raymond Tooth in 2019, Waterproof tested my “Pour Moi’s are better jumpers than Flat-racers” theory at Fakenham on January 1, writes Tony Stafford. He duly confirmed it, and by 15 lengths.

True, it needed a last-flight capitulation by Bran - a length up with only a short run-in to survive – but he was miles ahead of the rest after a nimble exhibition of jumping and enthusiastic galloping.

One swallow might not make a summer, but one winning jumper certainly invigorated the Raymond Tooth team. The boss has been saying for ages that it’s getting almost impossible to compete with the big battalions of both codes, but one “1” beside a horse’s name certainly brings optimism to aim at greater targets.

One more novice or handicap win – and as a four-year-old he’ll still get a hefty allowance against his elders – could get him into the Fred Winter (Boodles Juvenile) at the Festival. The Tooth colours of pink and grey, which collected the top hurdling prize 11 years ago when Punjabi won an epic Champion Hurdle tussle with Celestial Halo and Binocular, might just be dusted off in eight weeks’ time.

Shaun Keightley has done well to turn a 51-rated middle-distance horse to a winning jumper at only the second attempt. Jack Quinlan, who’d ridden him on debut and schooled him on the morning before the race but had to be at Cheltenham on Wednesday for a very disappointing Kalashnikov, reported immediately on first acquaintance that Waterproof was a natural.

The initial steps were actually undertaken by Josephine Gordon, his regular partner in recent Flat runs, and she accompanied the party to Fakenham on Wednesday. Now we’re scouring the entry pages to try to find a suitable follow-up, preferably where we won’t be meeting any stars.

The problem with any win is that instinctively you project forward. It’s the same when people are thinking of selling their improving horses, or in fact not, but are being pestered to do so. The tendency is to ask too much – the new figure more usually what the horse would be worth if he did win that next target. Yet if you keep him and win that race, the new people will think that’s one less opportunity for them if they did manage to buy. I can report that to date J P McManus has not put in a bid, so we’ll be soldiering on!

After the flurry of big meetings in Ireland, the pace will be much slower over there this week with only Clonmel on Thursday and Fairyhouse on Saturday to offer opportunities for the major stables. Not even a Sunday this week.

It is almost uncanny how closely matched the two big Irish jumping entities have been over Christmas and New Year. Willie Mullins won with 17 of his 99 runners: Gordon Elliott with 16 of 98. So far this jumps season (May to May) their scores are Mullins 117 from 493 and Elliott 120 from 812. Elliott’s numerical advantage also extends to individual horses raced – 267 to 206.

It would have been impossible for the old-time trainers to get their heads around such numbers. When Nicky Henderson started out with Fred Winter, normal stable strength for the top teams was in the 40-50 range. Now Henderson controls an operation which has sent out 145 individual animals for 77 wins from 292 runs, only exceeded by the 193 horses that have combined to get Dan Skelton up to 97 for the season.

Elliott has once or twice come to the business part of the Irish jumping season challenging long-standing champion Mullins but his ambitions of a first title, decided of course on prizemoney,  have been thwarted usually by the big guns from Closutton cleaning up at the season’s conclusion at Punchestown.

In 2016-7 it seemed an inevitability that Elliott would prevail, but his financial advantage was whittled down and then exceeded at Punchestown even though he had 13 more winners than his rival. This season he is around €340k ahead but, with many big prizes to be contested and among potential game-changers, the arrival of Cheveley Park Stud as major jumps owners can give Elliott hope that he can stay at the helm.

Yesterday Cheveley Park’s Envoi Allen made it seven out of seven with a convincing defeat of Mullins’ front-running Elixir D’Ainay in the Lawlor’s of Naas Novice Hurdle over two and a half miles. I’m not sure that he is ready for the Champion Hurdle on what I saw once he headed the runner-up. Maybe he can follow Istabraq’s example by winning the two and a half mile novice at Cheltenham before returning to dominate the next three Champions.

The embryo stars are lining up for the three Cheltenham novice races. Abacadabras, so impressive over Christmas, had been a length and a half behind Envoi Allen, his fellow Elliott inmate, over the minimum at Fairyhouse on December 1 and is the nearest to him in the betting for the Skybet Supreme Novice Hurdle. Envoi Allen is favourite both for that Festival opener and also the longer Ballymore Properties Novice, and is a shorter price (7-4) for the latter.

Here Thyme Hill, at the moment the leader from among the home contingent, is 7-1 second best. The form of his wins keep working out well, as with his Chepstow October victim Fiddlerontheroof, much too good for Saturday’s Tolworth Hurdle rivals, and still tempting at around 20-1 for whichever Cheltenham option Colin Tizzard selects.

**

This writer has – as do many in racing – a high regard for the talents of Ian Williams and one of his all-weather performers has all the signs of becoming a winter star. Noble Behest is a six-year-old that joined Williams last year following a 541-day absence, having previously enjoyed rewarding initial spells with Marcus Tregoning (three wins) and Robert Stephens (two out of two).

Four of the five wins had been in all-weather races of two miles and more. Once he got racing with his new handler it took a few runs (and a good few pounds off!) for Williams to get the cobwebs fully blown away. A running-on second at Wolverhampton over 1m6f was the signal that normal service was imminent and so it has proved.

Victories since on the Chelmsford Polytrack (his third there) and Wolverhampton Tapeta (second) were the prelude to a first try on Fibresand at Southwell. I made the mistake of contacting Williams yesterday morning when wondering whether the son of Sir Percy would cope with the surface. “The Sir Percy’s have a horrendous record at Southwell” reported Williams, a few hours before Noble Behest went off in front and came home in splendid isolation five lengths clear. That’s one way of avoiding the kick-back!

His rating yesterday was 73, still 3lb below his last winning mark of the pre-Williams era, achieved almost two years to the day at Chelmsford so that’s due a hike.

As the reports stated, this was a seventh win in nine all-weather starts when racing at two miles plus – he lost the other twice at shorter – but what they do not reveal is what a look at all his race videos told me. He’s one of the gamest horses I’ve ever seen. Low level or not, there’s the potential for him to go a lot further up the rankings if the shrewd Williams can keep him sound.

- TS

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

11.40 Lingfield : Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, headway 2f out, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, kept on one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.35 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5,  Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding is a former dual PTP winner and was also a winner under Rules over fences when last seen 11 days ago (Boxing Day). He landed a similar Class 5 contest at Sedgefield on soft ground that day with today's jockey, Conor O'Farrell, in the saddle.

Conor's in really good touch post-Christmas, landing three winners on Boxing Day amongst his 7 from 23 (30.4% SR) record since the break that has rewarded those following him with 64.1pts profit at an ROI of some 278.1%, including...

  • 6/12 (50%) for 55.1pts (+458.8%) over trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 68pts (+523.4%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 56pts (+1120%) in handicaps shorter than 2m1f
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 4.88pts (+69.7%) over fences
  • 2/5 (40%) for 2.81pts (+56.2%) at Class 5
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2pts (+50%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • and 1/1 (100%) (on Ripstick LTO) for 4.94pts (+494%) for today's trainer James Walton...

...whose handicap chasers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 14/1 are 6 from 30 (20% SR) for 23.6pts (+78.7% ROI) over the last two years, including of note today...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 30.6pts (+133%) with 8-11 yr olds
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 14.7pts (+64%) with those sent off shorter than 10/1
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 26.7pts (+243%) at Class 5
  • and 4/12 (33.3%) for 23.5pts (+195.8%) with Conor O'Farrell in the saddle...

...whilst James' 8-11 yr olds sent off shorter than 10/1 in Class 5 contests are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 29.73pts (+371.6% ROI) with Conor O'Farrell riding 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 14.63pts (+292.6%) profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.05am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th January 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

11.40 Lingfield : Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, headway 2f out, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, kept on one pace)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.35 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5,  Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding is a former dual PTP winner and was also a winner under Rules over fences when last seen 11 days ago (Boxing Day). He landed a similar Class 5 contest at Sedgefield on soft ground that day with today's jockey, Conor O'Farrell, in the saddle.

Conor's in really good touch post-Christmas, landing three winners on Boxing Day amongst his 7 from 23 (30.4% SR) record since the break that has rewarded those following him with 64.1pts profit at an ROI of some 278.1%, including...

  • 6/12 (50%) for 55.1pts (+458.8%) over trips shorter than 2m1f
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 68pts (+523.4%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 56pts (+1120%) in handicaps shorter than 2m1f
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 4.88pts (+69.7%) over fences
  • 2/5 (40%) for 2.81pts (+56.2%) at Class 5
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2pts (+50%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • and 1/1 (100%) (on Ripstick LTO) for 4.94pts (+494%) for today's trainer James Walton...

...whose handicap chasers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 14/1 are 6 from 30 (20% SR) for 23.6pts (+78.7% ROI) over the last two years, including of note today...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 30.6pts (+133%) with 8-11 yr olds
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 14.7pts (+64%) with those sent off shorter than 10/1
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 26.7pts (+243%) at Class 5
  • and 4/12 (33.3%) for 23.5pts (+195.8%) with Conor O'Farrell in the saddle...

...whilst James' 8-11 yr olds sent off shorter than 10/1 in Class 5 contests are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 29.73pts (+371.6% ROI) with Conor O'Farrell riding 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 14.63pts (+292.6%) profit...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.05am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 30th December to 4th January

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It was, if I'm honest, another annoying/frustrating week with just the one winner and December going out with a whimper, as did the year as a whole. The bright spot of the week was a horse picked at 4/1 BOG (which I thought was too good to pass up) getting home at 7/1, which at least sets January off in the right direction.

I'm not going to say too much about December or 2019 as a whole, because (a) I'll do 2019 in the yearly review and (b) I told you last week about how I felt about December's performance and nobody needs me moaning twice in a week.

January has started OK, I'm still scratching about for form, but I'm confident that it'll come and that's pretty much all I've got to say today other than slightly belatedly wishing you all a very Happy New Year that will hopefully see us all healthy and wealthy!

Chris

Selections & Results : 30/12/19 to 04/01/20

30/12 : Longhousesignora @ 4/1 9th at 15/2
31/12 : Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 11/4
-----------------------------------------------------------
01/01 : Redford Road @ 3/1 5th at 2/1
02/01 : Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2
03/01 : Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/1
04/01 : Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2

30/12/19 to 04/01/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +2.00pts

December 2019 :
3 winners from 22 = 13.64% SR
P/L: -9.84pts
ROI = -44.73%

2019 totals :
66 winners from 290 = 22.76% SR
P/L: +35.46pts
ROI = +12.23%

January 2020 :
1 winner from 4 = 25.00% SR
P/L: +4.00pts
ROI = +100.00%

Overall:
657 winners from 2470 = 26.60% S.R
P/L: +535.87pts
ROI: +21.70%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

The fuller story of 2019 will be posted this week!

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2020

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Friday's pick was...

6.15 Southwell : Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/1 (Keen led after 1f, made rest, pushed along 2f out, ran on to win by a length and three quarters)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

11.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5,  A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Standard Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Trainer Ed Walker is 4 from 21 (19.05% SR) for 3.21pts (+15.3% ROI) over the last five weeks, from which he has achieved...

  • 3/12 (25%) for 9.36pts (+78%) in handicaps
  • 3/6 (50%) for 6.28pts (+104.7%) at odds of 7/4 to 5/1
  • 3/6 (50%) for 6.28pts (+104.7%) with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.44pts (+214.7%) wih Luke Morris riding a handicapper at 7/4 to 5/1.

Impressive enough figures, of course, but not really enough of a sample size to hang your hat on. Looking further back in time, it's not too surprising that Ed's doing well, as over the last three years, his handicappers sent off at 7/4 to 7/1 are 105/477 (22% SR) for 84.8pts (+17.8% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 95/392 (24.2%) for 118.1pts (+30.1%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 47/187 (25.1%) for 42.2pts (+22.6%) on the A/W
  • 39/164 (23.8%) for 33.6pts (+20.5%) at Class 5
  • 37/155 (23.9%) for 27.1pts (+17.5%) at 1m2f to 1m5f
  • 34/143 (23.8%) for 49.4pts (+34.6%) with females
  • 31/126 (24.6%) for 38.8pts (+30.8%) on Polytrack
  • and 12/32 (37.5%) for 26.3pts (+82.3%) with Luke Morris in the saddle...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.15am on Saturday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 11.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 4th Jan 2020

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Another MASSIVE day for the ITV4 horse racing cameras as they head to Wincanton and Sandown for more LIVE coverage - the first Saturday coverage of 2020!

Like every Saturday we take you through all the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and hopefully find a few winners.

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

1.50 – New Unibet Uniboost Handicap Chase Cl2 2m ITV4

13/13 – Won over at least 2m (chase) previously
12/13 – Ran within the last 2 months
12/13 – Priced 17/2 or shorter
11/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/13 – Favourites placed
10/13 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Won between 1-4 times over fences in the UK previously
9/13 – Officially rated 135 or higher
8/13 – Never raced at Sandown
8/13 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/13 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Winning Favourites
7/13 – Unplaced last time out
4/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/13 – Went onto win a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Champion Chase, Grand Annual)
3/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Won their last race
Trainer Philip Hobbs has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Darebin won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 8 running is 9/2

 

2.25 – Unibet Tolworth Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV4


14/15 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
14/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
14/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Priced  5/1 or shorter
13/15 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/15 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
12/15 – Came from the top three in the market
11/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/15 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/15 – Winning Favourites
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
4/15 – Ran at either Sandown (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/15 – Ridden by jockey Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Ran at Sandown before
2/15 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/15 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
1/15 - Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 21 of the last 27 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1


3.00 - Unibet Veterans´ Handicap Chase Final (The Final of The 2015 Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m37y ITV4

Just 4 previous runnings
Trainers Venetia Williams, Evan Williams, Charlie Longsdon and David Pipe are past winners
4/4 – Unplaced last time out
4/4 – Ran in last 4 weeks
4/4 – 4+ wins over fences
3/4 – Unplaced favourites
3/4 – Officially rated between 135-145
3/4 – winners aged 11 or 12 years-old
3/4 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
1/4 – Winning favourite (joint)
Trainer David Pipe has a 29% record with his chasers at the track

3.35 –Read Nico De Boinville’s Unibet Blog Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV4

12/14 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/14 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
12/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
10/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
7/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/14 – Officially rated between 127 and 132
6/14 – Priced a double-figure price in the betting
6/14 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
6/14 – Went onto finish unplaced in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
6/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
4/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/14 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 6 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 13/2

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

 

2.05 – Watch Racing TV Now Handicap Chase Cl3 2m4f35y ITV4

No previous runnings
Paul Nicholls has a 31% record with his chasers at the track
Evan Williams has 21% record with his chasers at the track

2.40 –  Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5 1/2f ITV4

Just 3 previous runnings
Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, Henry Daly and Tom George were previous winners
3/3 – Winners aged between 5-7 years-old
3/3 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
2/3 – Carried 11-10 or more in weight
Trainer Philip Hobbs is just 9 from 89 with his hurdlers at the track

 

3.15 – Join Racing TV Now Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

7/8 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
7/8 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
7/8 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
7/8 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
6/8 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
6/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
4/8 – French bred
2/8 – Ran at Exeter last time out
2/8 – Trained by Tom George
1/8 – Winning favourite
1/8 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 7 runs is 9/2

 

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Chelmsford : Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway 2f out, switched right over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck and a nose)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4,  A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Standard Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...Class 4, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £5208

Why?...

This 6 yr old USA-bred gelding was a winner LTO fifteen days ago when landing another 6f, C4, A/W hcp at Wolverhampton, causing him to be rated 3lbs higher today. But as that win came off the back of a 4-month break, he can be expected to come on for the run and the switch back to Southwell's fibresand track is another positive.

To date, he is 5/25 (20% SR) for 83.5pts (+334%) in A/W handicaps, including the following under today's conditions...

  • 5/20 (25%) for 88.5pts (+442.5%) without headgear
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) on Standard going
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) over 6 furlongs
  • 4/16 (25%) for 73.2pts (+457.5%) going left handed
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 12.7pts (+90.7%) after a short 7-15 day break
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.41pts (+23.4%) here at Southwell
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 2.41pts (+48.2%) over course and distance...

...whilst he is 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 77.2pts (+643.4% ROI) going left handed over 6f on Standard with no head gear and this includes 2 from 5 (40%) over C&D, 2 from 5 (40%) within 15 dslr and 2 from 2 (100%) at Southwell within 15 dslr.

I mentioned at the top that he was USA-bred and much (possibly too much) has already been said (including by myself) about the success rate of USA-bred runners at this track. So much so that any value from just following them has now been pretty much eroded/eradicated, as those pesky bookies cotton on!

However (there's always an however!), it is worth knowing that there are still some niche angles that are profitable including this one of relevance today... 5-7 yr old, USA-bred males sent off at 12/1 or shorter over 6f to 1m in Class 4-6 A/W hcps at Southwell.

Trust me, that's more complicated in print than it is in practice and following such runners over the last three years (no reliance on old data) would have found you 20 winners from 82 (24.4% SR) and 70.8pts (+86.3% ROI) of profit and with this horse and race specifically in mind...

  • those sent off at 5/1 and shorter have a 27.5% strike rate (11 from 40)
  • those racing over this 6f course and distance have won 34.6% (9/26)
  • 6 yr olds have a 28% SR via 7 wins from 25
  • those 6f runners sent off at 5/1 max are 6/14 (42.9% SR)
  • whilst at Class 4 it's 4 from 19 for a 21% win ratio...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG as was available from best priced Unibet at 8.10am on Friday (plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere!). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2020

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New Year's Day's pick was...

12.15 Cheltenham : Redford Road @ 3/1 & BFSP 5th at 2/1 & 3.18 (Led until not fluent 3 out, soon led again, headed off last bend and one pace after)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP

...in a 9-runner, Class 6 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Standard Polytrack worth £2,846 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old Mare is seeking a hat-trick today after wins here at Chelmsford eight weeks ago and then at Wolverhampton three weeks back.

Jockey Hollie Doyle was on board last time and retains the ride today, hoping to maintain her own good form that has seen her ride 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last fortnight and she'll also be hoping to land another winner for trainer Tony Carroll for whom she was 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 7.25pts (+42.6% ROI) in 2019, including of relevance today...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.25pts (+86.5%) in handicaps
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 15.25pts (+169.4%) at sub-6/1 odds
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 7.91pts (+65.9%) on the A/W
  • 3/5 (60%) for 8.4pts (+168%) on female runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.4pts (+235.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.92pts (+48.6%) at Class 6

...whilst over the last two years Tony's sub-12/1 A/W handicappers racing over 1m3f to 1m6f are 10 from 44 (22.7% SR) for 43.3pts (+98.4% ROI), from which...

  • those running on Poly are 6/24 (25%) for 24.5pts (+102.2%)
  • Class 6 runners are 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+98%)
  • Class 6 Poly runners are 3/12 (25%) for 18.12pts (+151%)
  • and LTO winners are 3/10 930%) for 6.2pts (+62%)

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP as was available from BetVictor, Hills & Spreadex at 8.30am on Thursday (was 7/2 at 9.10am!), but do take BOG where possible. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!