2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 10th March 2020)

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY ONE: Tuesday 10th March 2020

13:30 – SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: KLASSICAL DREAM 6/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Ruby Walsh

Pluses…..

• 20 of the last 23 winners won their last race
• 14 of the last 16 winners had raced in at least 4 hurdles races before
• 8 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the market
• The last 8 winners have all won a graded novice hurdle before
• 19 of the last 25 winners ran in the last 45 days
• Irish-trained horses have won 16 of the last 28 runnings
• 5 & 6 year-olds have the best record – winning 14 of the last 15 runnings
• Willie Mullins has won the race 5 times since 2007 and for 4 of the last 7 years
• 23 of the last 25 winners had raced that same calendar year
• Owner Rich Ricci & trainer Willie Mullins have won 3 of the last 7 runnings.

Negatives…..

• Horses that FAILED to win last time out before coming here are just 3 from the last 23. In other words, look for horses that won last time out!
• Since 1992 all horses (37) wearing head-gear have been beaten
• We’ve seen just two ex-flat horses win since 2008
• Just 2 of the last 17 winners came here unbeaten
• Betfair Hurdle winners are 0-from-7 in the last decade
• Nicky Henderson is 1 from 36 since 1993 (Altior his only winner for this period)

 

 

14:10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase   2m

2019 Winner: DUC DES GENIEVRES 5/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

 

Pluses….

• 12 of the last 15 winners had won (or been placed) at Cheltenham before
• 12 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase before
• 14 of the last 20 had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase that season
• The last 10 winners won last time out (plus 15 of the last 19)
• 19 of the last 20 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
• 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 12 of the last 16 winners at run at the Cheltenham Festival previously
• 11 of the last 19 winners were the top or second top-rated hurdler in the field
• Nicky Henderson has won the race 6 times
• Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 5 runnings (all French-bred)

Negatives…..

• Only 2 of the last 33 winners failed to win of finish second last time out
• Just two of the last 29 winners started 11/1 or bigger in the betting
• Only 3 of the last 28 winners were older than 7 years-old
• The last horse aged 9 (or older) to win was in 1988
• The last 28 ex-flat horses to run have all lost
• Only 1 winner since 2000 won with headgear
• 5 year-olds are 0-11 in the last 12 years
• Douvan (2016) and Altior (2017) were the first Supreme Hurdle winners (prev season) that have followed-up in this race since 1965
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has had 12 unplaced from his last 13 runners

14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase  3m 1f 

2019 Winner: BEWARE THE BEAR 10/1
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Jeremiah McGrath

 

Pluses….

• 15 of the last 20 winners were officially rated 143 or less
• 14 of the last 19 came from the top 4 in the betting
• 16 of the last 20 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
• 14 of the last 19 were novices or second season chasers
• 7 of the last 12 winners were rated between 142-146 (6 between 142-145)
• Horses rated 140+ have won 12 of the last 19 runnings
• 9 of the last 17 won last time out
• Horses that have run well in the race before have a good record
• 3 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle that season
• 7 of the last 8 winners wore headgear
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham that season
• Jonjo O’Neill, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Tony Martin & David Pipe are trainers to note
• All winners since 2000 had won over 3m+ before
• The last 5 winners ran at Cheltenham’s January meeting

Negatives….

• Be a bit wary of horses carrying 11-04 or more in weight – 9 of the last 15 carried 10-12 or less, although the 2017 winner carried 11-12 & the 2019 winner won with 11-8
• Horses aged 11 or older are just 2 from 48 to even get placed
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s currently 0 from 23
• Only 1 winner in the last 11 hadn’t raced at a previous Festival
• Only 4 winners since 2000 have returned bigger than 11/1
• The Irish have won just 2 of the last 51 runnings (since 1967)

 

15:30 Unibet Champion Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: ESPOIR D’ALLEN 16/1
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mark Walsh

Pluses….

• 30 of the last 36 won last time out
• Horses unbeaten that season often do well (7 of last 9)
• The Irish and Nicky Henderson have won 17 of the last 21 runnings between them
• The Irish have won 13 of the last 21 runnings
• Owner JP McManus has won 5 of the last 10 (8 in total)
• Trainer Willie Mullins has won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 12 of the last 21 winners had won at the Festival before
• 23 of the last 35 winners were placed in the first 4 at the previous season’s festival
• The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a good guide (4 winners, 4 places in last 12 runnings)
• 14 of the last 24 winners started as flat horses
• Look for horses that have raced at least once that calendar year
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has won the race 7 times, including two of the last 3 years
• 5 of the last 11 winners contested the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton)

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that failed to finish in the top three last time out
• 5 year-olds are just 2 from 102 since 1985, but the 2019 winner was a 5 year-old
• Since 1927 we’ve only seen 2 winners aged 10 or older (0-28 in the last 37 runnings)
• Just 1 of the last 13 winners had raced more than 12 times over hurdles
• Christmas Hurdle (Kempton, 26^th Dec) winners are just 3 from 27
• Just 2 horses have regained the race since 1975

 

16:10 Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle   2m 4f

2019 Winner: ROKSANA 10/1
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton

 

Pluses….

• Follow Irish-trained mares (10 of last 12)
• The favourite (or 2^nd fav) have won 10 of the last 12 runnings
• 7 of the last 12 favourites have won
• 11 of the last 12 winners had won over at least 2m4f
• Willie Mullins have trained 9 of the last 11 winners
• Look for Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Paul Nolan & Alan King runners
• Novices generally do well
• 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
• 6 of the last 8 winners had won over 2m6f+ before
• Horses that began their careers in bumpers have done well
• Respect French-bred mares – won 9 renewals
• 10 of the last 12 winners had won (or placed) in a graded race against the males

Negatives….

• Avoid front-runners
• British-bred mares are currently 0-78 (only 7 have been placed)
• All 27 runners to wear headgear have been beaten (just 1 placed)
• Be wary of Paul Nicholls, Philip Hobbs and Noel Meade runners
• No ex-flat horses have won the race yet

16:50 Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase   2m 4½f

2019 Winner: A PLUS TARD
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

 

Pluses….

• 11 of the last 15 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 11 of the last 12 winners had run 3 or 4 times over fences
• 14 of the last 15 winners had won no more than twice over fences (11 had won no more than once)
• 14 of the last 15 winners raced in the last 45 days
• Respect 6 and 7 year-olds
• 3 of the last 7 winners ran in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase
• 6 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
• Look for any horses wearing first-time headgear
• 6 of last 11 won last time out
• 8 of the last 13 winners had run in a bumper race before
• 13 of the last 15 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
• Respect JP McManus-owned runners (1 win, 3 2nds, 1 3^rd)
• Respect Henderson, O’Neill & Hobbs runners

Negatives….

• Avoid horses outside the top five in the betting
• Avoid horses with less than 4 starts in the last 12 months
• The Irish are just 2 from the last 15 runnings
• Look for horses rated 141 or higher

 

17:30 National Hunt Challenge Chase   3m6f

2019 Winner: LE BREUIL 14/1
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Jamie Codd

 

Pluses…..

• 11 of the last 18 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• Favourites have won 3 of the last 10 runnings
• 4 of the last 9 winners were top-rated
• 5 of the last 9 winners had run in a Grade One Novice Chase that season
• 7 of the last 13 had run in a chase at Cheltenham before that season
• 7 of the last 10 winners had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
• Note horses wearing headgear
• 7 of the last 9 winners were rated 145 (or more)
• Look out for JP McManus-owned (6 winners) runners
• Jonjo O’Neill has trained 6 winners in the race
• Jockey Derek O’Connor has 2 wins / 4 places (from 14 rides)
• Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd & Patrick Mullins have won 6 of the last 9 (2 each)
• Gordon Elliott has won the race 3 times from just 7 runners

Negatives….

• 5 and 6 year-olds are just 2 from 80 since 1989
• Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won this race - he’s currently 0 from 18
• Trainer Nicky Henderson has NEVER won this race
• Horses with less than 3 chase starts don’t fare well
• Horses rated in the 130’s have a poor record (1 from 8)

 

 

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