Stat of the Day, 19th December 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

2.05 Ludlow : Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 2/1 (Chased winner, led briefly 5th, lost 2nd before 4 out, soon weakened and last home, 33 lengths off the pace!)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elzaam's Dream @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly was a runner-up over course and distance when last seen 17 days ago. She was partnered by today's jockey, David Probert, for the first time that day and was only beaten by a neck. She was, however, a little more than two lengths clear of Seraphim back in fourth place, who herself has since reappeared here last Saturday as a winner.

After making a mess of the original post last night, I'm going to keep the stats pretty simple today with a look at he trainer's record at this venue in recent years, as...

...Ron Harris' runners are 19 from 149 (12.75% SR) for 132.04pts (+88.6% ROI) backed blindly in Class 4-6 handicaps here since the start of 2016. These are good numbers for non-top level yard, but I should point out that the profit and ROI are both skewed by a couple of 16/1 winners and a 33/1 success that paid out at 101/1 on the Betfair SP.

I rarely back horses at double digit odds and I certainly don't advocate backing 33/1 shots at Wolverhampton too often, so let's focus on those of the original 149 runners who were sent off shorter than 10/1, shall we?

Yes, Chris, let's do that, I almost hear you shout and you'd be right to, because those runners are a more realistic 14 from 59 (23.7% SR) for 44.4pts (+75.3% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 8/39 (20.5%) for 13.79pts (+35.4%) at Class 6
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 30.88pts (+128.7%) with jockey David Probert
  • 6/15 (40%) for 39.76pts (+265.1%) during December to February
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16.71pts (+104.5%) with female runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 13.98pts (+87.4%) with David Probert at Class 6
  • 4/19 (21.05%) for 3.35pts (+17.65%) from 3 yr olds
  • and 4/16 (25%) for 7.06pts (+44.1%) this year alone...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Elzaam's Dream @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by the first to show, Hills at 4.45pm on Wednesday. They were still best priced of all at 6.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2019

Tuesday's pick was...

2.55 Catterick : Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Led until slow 5th, soon ridden, led 8th, headed before 3 out, one pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2,05 Ludlow:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on soft ground worth £16,458 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we're with the Skeltons today and their 6 yr old gelding who was won 7 of his last 10 outings and is 9 from 20 in his entire career, including 3 from 5 over fences and...

  • 8 from 16 with Harry in the saddle
  • 8 from 10 in fields of 3-8 runners
  • 7 from 16 over trips shorter than 2m1f
  • and 7 from 13 at 11-35 days since last run.

He has won on soft ground and also over course and distance and in fact won on soft over C&D last time out, when comfortably clear by nine lengths! And referring back to the above numbers, he is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 3.62pts (+60.4% ROI) when Harry rides him in fields of 3-8 runners over trips shorter than 2m1f at 11-35 dslr.

Both Harry and trainer Dan have good records here at Ludlow, but (a) that's fairly common knowledge and (b) it's actually highlighted on your race card via the green C1 and C5 icons, so I won't go there today.

Instead I'm going to focus on the fact that since 2014, Dan's former C&D winners sent off within 45 days of an LTO win anywhere are 19 from 41 (46.3% SR) for 11.23pts (+27.4% ROI) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which, they are...

  • 19/38 (50%) for 14.23pts (+37.5%) with Harry in the saddle
  • 18/34 (52.9%) for 17.08pts (+50.2%) who won over C&D LTO
  • 16/28 (57.1%) for 10.75pts (+38.4%) since the start of 2017
  • 16/26 (61.5%) for 21.01pts (+80.8%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 11/25 (44%) for 10.67pts (+42.7%) in handicaps
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 7.9pts (+56.4%) over fences
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 2.46pts (+22.4%) stepping up a class
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.61pts (+108.7%) on soft ground...

...whilst when Harry has ridden the 5-7 yr old LTO C&D winners from above since the start of 2017, they are 13/16 (81.25% SR) for 17.53pts (+109.6% ROI) and these include 8 from 10 in handicaps, 8 from 8 over fences, 4 from 5 stepping up a class, 4 from 4 in handicap chases and 2 from 2 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 5.25pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2019

Monday's pick was...

12.30 Ffos Las : Out The Glen @ 10/3 WON at 3/1 (Mid-division, headway and in touch 3rd, went 2nd 4 out, led going best before 2 out, ridden between last 2, kept on well to win by the best part of 2 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2,55 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on good to soft ground worth £6,758 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep it nice and simple today with an 11 yr old gelding who still seems full of life, having won last time out with a bit to spare despite a mistake at the last over at fairly nearby Sedgefield on soft ground three weeks ago.

That win took his record over fences to 4 from 11, which is decent at this level and includes of relevance today...

  • 4/10 (40%) going left handed & 4/8 (50%) under jockey Danny Cook
  • 3/8 (37.5%) at Class 4 & 3/8 (37.5%) on Good to Soft/Soft ground
  • 3/6 (50%) in November/December & 3/5 (60%) at odds below 4/1
  • 4/4 (75%) within 3 weeks of his last run & 2/5 (40%) at trips shorter than 17f
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) in December...

...whilst his trainer Sue Smith is 22 from 50 (44%) with chasers here at Catterick over the last 6 years with a £10 level stake on all 50 yielding a profit of £685.30 or 137.1% of stakes invested. This highly impressive record includes...

  • 13/30 (43.3%) for 39.7pts (+132.2%) with Danny Cook in the saddle
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 29.61pts (+141%) at Class 4
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 6.57pts (+164.4%) with LTO winners...

...all of which is enough to support...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.05pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Tony Keenan’s Top 10 Races of the Decade (ish)

It’s the end of the decade so forgive me for some reflection and self-indulgence as I look back on my favourite races of the last ten years or so, the ‘or so’ an important part as I’ve included two from 2009 – it’s my top 10 so I can do what I want!

There were two criteria for inclusion: I had to be at the track that day so, for instance, there is no Frankel who I never saw live; and I couldn’t have backed the winner. The latter was to avoid this becoming an exercise in delicious after-timing which is about as interesting as someone going through their Cheltenham ante-post ‘portfolio’ in December.

In almost all cases, I’ve backed another horse in the race but after the initial disappointment/shock/horror/disgust of being on a loser, the value of the race for whatever reason became apparent in hindsight. Here they are, then:

 

  1. Sea The Stars – 2009 Champion Stakes

Every rational part of my being says that Frankel would have beaten Sea The Stars had they met: Frankel had a higher official rating upon retirement, beat better horses and was better on the clock. And yet, the fan/patriot in me – call it what you will – thinks, you know what, maybe, just maybe, there was so much still in the tank with Sea The Stars that he might just have beaten The Big F.

Regardless of this perhaps idle fantasy, seeing the superstar Sea The Stars at Leopardstown in September 2009 in the flesh was a real treat, albeit one that had been in doubt in the run-up to the race with the weather. It was his sole Irish run as a three-year-old, a tilt at the Irish Derby having to be aborted due to – again – weather, and while it is one thing to see a nascent star as a two-year-old at your home tracks, it is quite another to watch them in their pomp, readily dismissing the massed ranks of Ballydoyle who certainly did their part in building his legacy, never failing to re-oppose despite previous defeats suggesting they may have been better running elsewhere.

 

  1. Thousand Stars – 2009 Bar One Racing Handicap Hurdle

This Saturday was one of those days you really wonder what you’re doing at the racetrack, fog having lingered overnight, and all the post-race analyses referencing ‘poor visibility’, the following day’s Hatton’s Grace having to be abandoned. The old saying about ‘a bad day at the races is better than a good day at work’ springs to mind and there was something memorable about the ghostly sport there with its intermittent coverage of the horses and Des Scahill basically opting out of commentating.

Thousand Stars himself really went on after this, winning the County Hurdle later that season before finishing third to Hurricane Fly at Punchestown, and presaging a long career at the top level over hurdles across a variety of trips. He was also one of the early Willie Mullins switchers, something that was to become a feature of Irish jumps racing over the next decade. Bizarrely, this was one of a few ‘fog meetings’ I’ve managed to make in that time; I was at Leopardstown later that year for the third day of the Christmas meeting that was called off halfway through along with the 2013 Thyestes won by Djakadam. On a related issue, please never mention the 2008 York Ebor meeting in my presence, the sole time I made the journey to that track. What a magpie.

 

  1. Long Run – 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup

2011 was the first Festival I was attended, and the Gold Cup was its crowning glory, Long Run versus Kauto Star versus Denman with some Imperial Commander mixed in too. The two Nicholls stars were on the downgrade at this stage, but the fire still burned or at least could be stoked for Cheltenham in March; while Long Run was never to reach the same heights afterwards which said plenty of how hard the second and third made him go. That the rider Sam Waley-Cohen became the first amateur jockey to win the race in 30 years added another layer of significance to the race.

The only other Festival I’ve made was 2016, where the roar that went up when Thistlecrack hit the front in the Stayers’ Hurdle was huge; but this was of a different order. You couldn’t get near the stand for 20 minutes before the race, but we had our position to soak it up and anyone will tell you this sort of moment, on this sort of scale, doesn’t happen in Irish racing. I’ve never been to a big soccer match, some major Monaghan GAA matches as close as I’ve managed but I’m not sure they compare!

  1. Rebel Fitz – 2012 Galway Hurdle

Ok, so I lied. There is going to be one after-time in here as I did back Rebel Fitz in the 2012 Galway Hurdle and he was a badly needed winner. The race was on August 2nd and that July, when it rained incessantly, was – and still is – the worst punting month of my life. I put that down to the ground making things difficult for mid-summer flat racing; well, that’s my theory anyway.

Rebel Fitz had won the Grimes Hurdle at Tipperary and after some humming and hawing about whether he’d go to Galway, he pitched up as a well-backed second favourite at Ballybrit. He was travelling so well out of the dip that it was simply a case of Davy Russell getting a clear run which he did and then struck the front over the last, but in a moment of premature jock elation Russell eased up near the line and started celebrating only for something to come out of the pack. He held on but the photo finish call was one of the longer few minutes of my life.

The horse to come at him was the then four-year-old Cause Of Causes, at that time owned by the Timeform Racing Club, while the veteran Captain Cee Bee was third. I don’t think this was quite peak-Mick Winters – that came the following year with Missunited – but the trainer certainly knew how to celebrate and I did my best to imitate him in town that night. Funnily enough, I can’t recall much of that.

 

  1. Chicquita – 2013 Irish Oaks

This one is all about the jockey, Johnny Murtagh. Chicquita was, to put it mildly, quirky; ok, let’s be straight, she was a dodge. On her first start as three-year-old, she had fallen after running through a hedge to avoid victory before posting an excellent second to Treve in the Prix de Diane, coming from a long way back before hanging. The ability was clearly there but she would need a master ride to extract it and she got just that from Murtagh who dropped her right on the line to beat Venus De Milo, my bet in the race.

Murtagh, especially during his time at Ballydoyle, had a habit of winning on ungenuine horses. There was nothing I hated more than when he went to the front on a runner I had opposed due to attitude concerns only for the horse to get into a rhythm and never be headed; I’ve seen that movie tens of times. Chicquita herself made a record €6 million at the sales later that year, in no small part due to Murtagh’s excellence. I hope he got a tip!

 

  1. Treve – 2013 Arc Prix De L’Arc De Triomphe

I attended the Arc for the first and only time in 2013 with a good pal (always a decent start) though the weekend had a none too auspicious start; heading to the track on Saturday, news came through that our ante-post bet Novellist had been ruled out with injury. The couple of days racing at the old Longchamp was fine though I did feel a little cut off from the wider racing world; it wasn’t quite that I wanted to see the bumper at Tipperary’s Super Sunday on the big screen but there seemed to be a complete lack of awareness about anything else that was going on. Maybe that’s the point.

Anyway, I digress, which, in fairness, is probably the point of this whole exercise! Treve was magnificent in landing her first Arc when everything about race-reading said she couldn’t win with what went wrong, but she came home five lengths clear. Having sweated up, she raced wide and was very keen, her jockey making a premature move at a time when the pace was lifting, and yet she still managed to cruise to the lead and win without being asked a question. Wow.

 

  1. Hurricane Fly – 2015 Irish Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly definitely brought me more financial pain than joy over the years but he was a constant in top-class hurdles races for the first half of this decade and I managed to be there for his first Irish win in the Royal Bond (when I was on Donnas Palm) and his final one, this race (where I was on Jezki). He won some uncompetitive contests en route to his record haul of Grade 1’s but he raced against some very good horses too, his career intersecting with the likes of Solwhit and Faugheen amongst others.

Jezki was his foil though and it looked like being that one’s day at Leopardstown in January 2015 as Hurricane Fly seemed in bother two out when tight for room and his old rival cruised to the lead, but a mistake at the last ended his chance and, as so often in the past, the Fly found a way to win. If ever a horse deserved a statue.

 

  1. Almanzor – 2016 Champion Stakes

Objectively speaking, Almanzor’s Champion Stakes was the best and deepest flat race run in Ireland in the past decade: the best running of what is typically the best race, year in, year out. It brought together a who’s who of middle-distance horses that season, subsequent Arc winner Found, seven-time Group 1 winner Minding, the Derby winner Harzand and future globe-trotter Highland Reel amongst them.

Christophe Soumillon gave the winner a beautiful ride, arriving late and wide, and while his mount didn’t build on it during an injury-spoiled four-year-old campaign, for that moment and a few weeks later at Ascot he was the best of his generation, a rare French raider in Ireland these days.

 

  1. Sizing John – 2017 Irish Gold Cup

Leopardstown is probably my favourite track. The viewing is excellent there, I like how the facilities are laid out and it has quality racing, flat and jumps. It’s the place I went racing first and typically the track I visit most often in the year. Being on course for this meeting, the final Irish Gold Cup before the Dublin Racing Festival was launched the following year, wasn’t the smartest move as the weather was appalling with the place empty by the time of the bumper. To compound matters I had brought my soon-to-be wife, which seemed like a good idea at the time.

We were treated to Sizing John having his first run over three miles, however, Robbie Power riding with a mix of confidence and concern for stamina, only arriving at the last to lead. That race was his second in a four-month period when he was basically unbeatable, ultimately winning three versions of a Gold Cup in that time. Upped in distance, he finally stepped out of the shadow of Douvan and, while he has been mainly on the side-lines since, his legacy is secure. Enjoy them while they’re here.

 

  1. Pat Smullen Champions Races for Cancer Trials Ireland 2019

There were some very good horses running on the second day of Irish Champions Weekend in 2019, Pinatubo and Kew Gardens among them; but the meeting was more about man than beast this year. Pat Smullen had gathered the great and good of retired riders, some recent, some not so recent, to take part in a flat handicap over a mile, which culminated with the winning-most jockey of all-time, Tony McCoy, holding off Ruby Walsh in a driving finish.

Few will remember the names of the moderate-to-decent handicappers that ran in the race, but it would be hard to forget the atmosphere on the day despite the miserable weather. Racing, generally such a factional sport, joined together on the day for a most worthy cause, jockeys going around with buckets asking punters to dig deep, everyone doing their small part in the face of what can be an unbeatable illness.

- TK

Monday Musings: When a change is as good as a rest

As Brexit looms ever nearer, two of the biggest stud groupings in the British Isles have each exiled what might be described as an under-performing stallion, writes Tony Stafford. Might future events make those decisions by Coolmore and Cheveley Park appear questionable or even mistaken?

Step forward from Coolmore the 2011 Derby winner, Pour Moi. The son of Montjeu had already been relegated to the stud’s National Hunt division by the time his first crop had embarked on their third season. Even the shock Derby success of 40-1 shot Wings Of Eagles, stand-out member of the second crop, couldn’t sway the powers that be that he should be reinstated into the elite flat-race team. Maybe if Wings Of Eagles hadn’t broken down, finishing a close third, when trying to add the Irish Derby to his Classic tally, history might have been different.

Looking at subsequent results, though, it is hard to say that Coolmore got that initial decision wrong as Wings Of Eagles sticks out like a sore thumb as a top-class product of Pour Moi’s. Only Mine, a sprinter, is another rare exception to the general rule that he gets ordinary flat-racers for the most part. Hence his latest switch, from their Beeches stud to the Haras de Cercy, the Cooperative stallion farm in the middle of France, north-west of Lyon, which effectively replaced the French National Stud when it ended activity earlier in this decade. Ironically, it has coincided with an upturn in Pour Moi’s fortunes in jumping, more of which later.

Meanwhile Garswood, a Group 1 winner for Richard Fahey and David and Emma Armstrong, stood for five seasons at Cheveley Park after the farm bought an interest from the Armstrongs, thus returning him to his original birthplace. As a son of the highly-successful Dutch Art he was expected to get reasonably early or mid-season two-year-olds but the two crops to race have been generally later-developing.

So another commercial decision was made. Garswood, although still featuring in the Stallion Book I picked up at Tatts December sales, and listed at £5,000 a pop at Cheveley, instead has also made the move to France. He is now based close to Deauville at Haras de la Huderie where another one-time Armstrong star, Birchwood, who spent most of his racing career in Godolphin blue, is also based.

Garswood’s fee as principally a sire of Flat racers, is held at €5,000, actually higher than the £3,500 in his final season in Newmarket. Pour Moi, meanwhile has slipped to €3,500, so markedly less than the €5,000 of his final year at the Beeches. He attracted the services of only 53 mares – Wings Of Eagles covered well over 200 at the Haras de Montaigu, where he was born - so Coolmore have snapped up the younger Derby winner and have reduced his fee from the €12,000 it was this year in France to €6,500 for next year.

I’ve seen a good few Garswood youngsters and they have all been well-grown. Ray Tooth sent his decent broodmare Lawyers Choice to him and she produced a very strong foal, later called Bogeyman, who has been gelded and is unraced as a two-year-old with Hughie Morrison. Winners for the stallion have been relatively thin on the ground but, within days of his exile, what could easily be his best son to date emerged on the Newcastle Tapeta just over a week ago.

Splendidly, a 35,000gns yearling sold by Cheveley Park, who bred him, is a half-brother to four winners. Sent out by Karl Burke and starting 16-1, he overcame inexperience to beat better-backed and more seasoned rivals trained by Simon Crisford, Jedd O’Keeffe, Richard Hannon, who provided the odds-on favourite, and a fellow newcomer from William Haggas. As those horses came to the last furlong challenging for the lead, his big white face and two white hind legs on a big frame could be seen slicing through the field for an eventual neck victory.

Splendidly could be the horse to give the sire’s reputation the sort of forward propulsion it needs. In the polarised French breeding world, which is dominated by Siyouni, Le Havre and Kendargent, there is plenty of room for a less expensive sire to make an impact. Haras de la Huderie will be hoping that will be Garswood’s opportunity. My own guess is that, as time goes on, trainers might start to believe that some of the stouter-bred Garswoods could have the physique to be trained for hurdling.

Pour Moi, with six-year-olds on the ground, has had plenty of opportunity to sire decent jumpers, and Coeur De Lion, from that first crop, has been a dual-purpose performer for Alan King, proving a smart handicapper at both codes. The odd winner from the next two crops has not been sufficient to have his being identified principally as a producer of jump horses, but that quick switch by Coolmore to the NH division four years ago is now clearly having its effect.

Jim Bolger, famed for his early support for Galileo’s sons and daughter, so richly justified and rewarded with Teofilo and New Approach, was also an adherent to Pour Moi after his retirement immediately following the Derby triumph. I was in Deauville, having successfully fulfilled the task of buying back Laughing Water, a winning Nicolas Clement-trained filly for Ray Tooth and a partner, who wanted to end the relationship.

I asked David O’Laughlin, from Coolmore, to come to look at her and to suggest a potential mate. He said: “I think Pour Moi is great value. Jim Bolger is sending a number of mares to her.” It wasn’t a difficult decision to make.

The product of that mating is Waterproof, and like so many of the line, he was slow to come to hand and even though he has been placed second a couple of times, has only a 51 rating on the Flat. Switched to hurdling by Shaun Keightley he dropped an immediate hint that better might come when third on debut at Huntingdon in November.

By that time, two more of the sire’s three-year-olds had already appeared. For Everyone, trained in Ireland by Mark McNiff, had an early trip to England, at Hexham on Derby Day, but pulled far too hard and beat only one horse home. Like Waterproof he is rated only 51 on the level, but back in Ireland he won his next two races over jumps, both at long odds. In the second of them he beat Joseph O’Brien’s A Wave Of The Sea, who won his next two impressively and was then only beaten narrowly by stable-companion Cerberus in a competitive race at Listowel.

The first to make an impact was coincidentally a Bolger-bred gelding called Repetitio, unplaced in all four starts for Jim as a juvenile. He turned up in Nigel Hawke’s West Country yard in the summer and made his debut over jumps in July. His first three races for Hawke were all at Newton Abbot, and showing gradual improvement, he won third time out in August.

Then came the post-switch Pour Moi acceleration. Tavus had won three of his last four races for Roger Charlton in Tony Bloom’s colours, starting off on 60 and ending after his third win on 78, the wins coming at 12 and 14 furlongs. He realised 105,000gns and very quickly made the first repayment when making a winning debut for Jedd O’Keeffe at Newcastle last month. I wonder if Brighton FC’s chairman wishes he’d sent him to Willie Mullins rather than sell?

Bolger and one-time Lambourn trainer Brendan Duke have had a long association. Brendan, since his return to Ireland when his traditional English-based Irish clients started to feel the pinch of the financial crisis at the beginning of this decade, has always trained some of his mentor’s home-breds and Clemencia is another. He had been unplaced in his five Flat runs and there seemed to be no discernible improvement a week after the last of them when he made his jumps debut at the end of August.

Then, sent to Cork on Sunday last week, Clemencia faced the 2-5 shot Pasley, a recent impressive Flat winner for Joseph O’Brien and beat him by 15 lengths, still in Jackie Bolger’s colours. Last Friday, Repetitio, taking advantage of the hefty weight-for-age allowance for three-year-olds in all-aged handicaps, won at Cheltenham in a 0-140, then on Saturday at Fairyhouse, Wolf Prince on second jumps start for Gavin Cromwell, won by 14 lengths from a big field. He’s yet another Pour Moi maiden on the Flat, acquired for 35,000gns from the Amy Murphy yard.

I believe the pattern is set. Like most of the others, Wolf Prince needed a run, in his case a debut third. Maybe Waterproof will follow his example. While I’m on the subject of jumping, Sod’s Law, sold for 30k to Luke Comer at the Horses in Training sale, runs over two miles, three furlongs at Naas today, his debut over jumps. He’s the first Lawyers Choice to try hurdling. We are all hoping he’ll come home safe at the same time wondering why he’s not in the opening two-miler. [Stop press: turns out you need to have run three times to be eligible for the opener!]

- TS

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.20 Wolverhampton : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong, beaten by 2 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Out The Glen @ 10/3

...in an 11-runner (was 12!), Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4½f on heavy ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 6 yr old gelding got off the mark last time out on handicap debut just over 6 weeks ago and seemed to have plenty in hand despite a stamina test coming off a 162-day lay off and I'm not convinced a 4lb rise in weight would be the reason for a failure to follow up today if he comes here in the same frame of mind and his cause is aided by a drop in class.

Aside from that win LTO, I was also interested in him as his name cropped up quite a few times in my list of daily micro-system qualifiers, but in the interests of brevity, we'll just explore 3 angles today..

1. Trainer Debra Hamer is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 46.62pts (+186.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2016, including...

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 48.62pts (+211.4%) with male runners
  • 6/27 (27.3%) for 25.33pts (+93.8%) in handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.28pts (+103.1%) here at Ffos Las
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.65pts (+185%) at Class 5
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.65pts (+220.6%) with Class 5 male handicappers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.28pts (+161.1%) with male handicappers at Ffos Las
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.45pts (+622.5%) with males in Class 5 handicaps here at Ffos Las

2. Since the start of 2015, Debra's LTO winners of handicap hurdle races are 12 from 20 (60% SR) for 65.22pts (+326.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests, from which...

  • males are 12/19 (63.2%) for 66.22pts (+348.5%)
  • Class 5 runners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 18.17pts (+227.1%)
  • and Class 5 males are 5/7 (71.4%) for 19.17pts (+273.8%)

...and finally for today...

3. Since 2014 in NH handicaps, Debra Hamer's runners with just one earlier run in the previous 90 days are 15 from 72 (20.8% SR) for 47.72pts (+66.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 51.72pts (+76.1%) from males
  • 13/42 (31%) for 61.28pts (+145.9%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 49.9pts (+118.8%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/20 (55%) for 33.42pts (+167.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 28.36pts (+76.7%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 23.8pts (+66.1%) over hurdles
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 32.8pts (+193%) at Ffos Las
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.16pts (+135.1%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 19.58pts (+195.8%) in December
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.72pts (+82.5%) with those dropping down a class
  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.45pts (+189%) on heavy ground
  • 2/4 (50%) for 12.44pts (+311%) with today's jockey, Tom Bellamy

...whilst 5-8 yr old male Class 5 handicap hurdlers sent off shorter then 5/1 within 45 days of their last run are 6/7 (85.7% SR) for 16.64pts (+237.7% ROI) including 3 from 3 for 7.29pts (+243%) from LTO winners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Out The Glen @ 10/3 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

7.20 Wolverhampton : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong, beaten by 2 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Out The Glen @ 10/3

...in an 11-runner (was 12!), Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4½f on heavy ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 6 yr old gelding got off the mark last time out on handicap debut just over 6 weeks ago and seemed to have plenty in hand despite a stamina test coming off a 162-day lay off and I'm not convinced a 4lb rise in weight would be the reason for a failure to follow up today if he comes here in the same frame of mind and his cause is aided by a drop in class.

Aside from that win LTO, I was also interested in him as his name cropped up quite a few times in my list of daily micro-system qualifiers, but in the interests of brevity, we'll just explore 3 angles today..

1. Trainer Debra Hamer is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 46.62pts (+186.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2016, including...

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 48.62pts (+211.4%) with male runners
  • 6/27 (27.3%) for 25.33pts (+93.8%) in handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.28pts (+103.1%) here at Ffos Las
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.65pts (+185%) at Class 5
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.65pts (+220.6%) with Class 5 male handicappers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.28pts (+161.1%) with male handicappers at Ffos Las
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.45pts (+622.5%) with males in Class 5 handicaps here at Ffos Las

2. Since the start of 2015, Debra's LTO winners of handicap hurdle races are 12 from 20 (60% SR) for 65.22pts (+326.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests, from which...

  • males are 12/19 (63.2%) for 66.22pts (+348.5%)
  • Class 5 runners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 18.17pts (+227.1%)
  • and Class 5 males are 5/7 (71.4%) for 19.17pts (+273.8%)

...and finally for today...

3. Since 2014 in NH handicaps, Debra Hamer's runners with just one earlier run in the previous 90 days are 15 from 72 (20.8% SR) for 47.72pts (+66.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 51.72pts (+76.1%) from males
  • 13/42 (31%) for 61.28pts (+145.9%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 49.9pts (+118.8%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/20 (55%) for 33.42pts (+167.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 28.36pts (+76.7%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 23.8pts (+66.1%) over hurdles
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 32.8pts (+193%) at Ffos Las
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.16pts (+135.1%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 19.58pts (+195.8%) in December
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.72pts (+82.5%) with those dropping down a class
  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.45pts (+189%) on heavy ground
  • 2/4 (50%) for 12.44pts (+311%) with today's jockey, Tom Bellamy

...whilst 5-8 yr old male Class 5 handicap hurdlers sent off shorter then 5/1 within 45 days of their last run are 6/7 (85.7% SR) for 16.64pts (+237.7% ROI) including 3 from 3 for 7.29pts (+243%) from LTO winners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Out The Glen @ 10/3 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 9th to 14th December 2019

Not a good week by any stretch of the imagination and no real plausible reason behind it. The only comfort I can draw from the week is that the only two runners to make the the frame were the two I fancied the most, but one runner-up and one third place doesn't represent decent form, nor does it pay the bills!

This means that halfway through the month, I've work to do to end in profit, especially with fewer betting opportunities courtesy of the short Christmas break, but I'm not going down without a fight!

Selections & Results : 09/12/19 to 14/12/19

09/12 : Castletown @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/2
10/12 : Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG 9th at 11/2
11/12 : Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4
12/12 : Muraaqeb @ 4/1 2nd at 7/2
13/12 : Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/1
14/12 : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1

09/12/19 to 14/12/19 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

December 2019 :
2 winners from 12 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -4.17pts
ROI = -34.75%

2019 to date :
65 winners from 280 = 23.21% SR
P/L: +41.13pts
ROI = +14.69%

Overall:
655 winners from 2456 = 26.67% S.R
P/L: +537.54pts
ROI: +21.89%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Boxing Day TV Trends: 26th Dec 2019

A huge day on Boxing Day with eight domestic horse racing fixtures, but the festive highlight, as racing resumes after a two-day break, is the King George VI Meeting at Kempton Park.

The King George VI  Chase is of course the feature race on the day as punters will look to get their Christmas expenses paid for – a race in recent years we’ve seen horse racing greats like Kauto Star, Long Run, Best Mate, Kicking King, One Man and, more recently, Thistlecrack & Might Bite, landing the prize. Did you know - 13 of the last 17 King George winners were aged 8 or younger?

We take a look at each race on the Kempton card, plus the Rowland Meyrick Chase from Wetherby and highlight the main trends – hopefully this will help you narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

12:50 – 32Red Casino Mobile Novices' Hurdle Race 2m

12/12 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
11/12 - Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
10/12 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Had won a NH Flat race before
9/12 – Winning distance 3 lengths or more
7/12 – Won just once over hurdles before
7/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
4/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
Mister Fisher (7/2) won the race 12 months ago

 

1.20 – 32Red.com Chase (A Novices´ Limited Handicap) Chase Cl3 2m4f110y ITV

15/15 – Aged 7 or younger
14/15 – Had won between 0-1 times over fences in the UK
13/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/15 – Placed favourites (1 joint)
8/15 – Officially rated between 119 and 125
7/15 – Carried 11-6 or more
6/15 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/15 – Won by a French bred horse
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/15 – Raced at Kempton last time out
Glen Forsa (7/1) won the race 12 months ago

 

1.55 – 32RedKauto Star Novices´ Chase (In memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

16/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Placed in the top two last time out
12/16 – Won last time out
12/16 – French (7) or Irish (5) bred
11/16 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
11/16 – Aged 6 or younger
11/16 – Had won at least 2 times over fences in the UK
10/16 – Went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (no winners)
10/16 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Aged 6 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Had won (chase) over at least 3m before
8/16 – Raced at Newbury last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Trained by David Pipe
2/16 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
1/16 – French trained
1/16 – Went onto run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup (One winner - Coneygree 2015)
La Bague Au Roi (8/1) won the race 12 months ago

 

2.30 – Unibet Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

15/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
14/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Went onto run in the Champion Hurdle (Faughan (2015) & Buveur D’Air (2018) winners)
10/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Winning favourites
9/17 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle that season
8/17 – Irish trained
8/17 – Ran in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle) last time out
8/17 – Had run over hurdles at Kempton before
6/17 – French bred
6/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/17 – Trained by Noel Meade
2/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
Verdana Blue (11/2) won the race 12 months ago

 

3.05 – 32Red King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

16/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Had won a Grade One chase before
15/17 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
15/17 – French (11) or Irish bred (4)
14/17 – Placed favourites
14/17 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
13/17 – Officially rated 169 or higher
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Winning favourites
11/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
10/17 – Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
9/17 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (10 times in all)
7/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/17 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 3 in the last 33 runnings)
Colin Tizzard and Nicky Henderson have trained 5 of the last 9 winners (2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 4/1

 

15:40 – 32Red Download The App Handicap Hurdle Race 2m5f

 

12/12 – Won no more than 3 times (UK Hurdles)
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
10/12 – Won between 0-2 times hurdles (UK)
10/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
10/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/12 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
8/12 – Officially rated 120-129
8/12 – Ran 5 or less weeks ago
8/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
6/12 – French bred
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Erick Le Rouge (7/1) won the race 12 months ago

 

 

Wetherby Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.10- Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m45y ITV

10/11 – Aged 8 or younger
10/11 – Had won 3 or less times over fences (UK)
9/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
9/11 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
9/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/11 – Had raced at Wetherby before
7/11 – Unplaced in their last race
7/11 – Had won over 3m (chase) before
6/11 – Irish bred
4/11 – Raced at either Haydock (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
2/11– Winning favourites
Lake View Lad won the race 12 months ago

 

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Stat of the Day, 14th December 2019

Friday's pick was...

2.10 Bangor : Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/1 (Close up in rear, went 4th 4 out, ridden 2 out, no impression and lost 3rd flat)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in an 11-runner (was 13!), Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 6 yr old Mare who won LTO on yard debut for David Evans over course and distance a week ago. She was coming off a 22-weeks break last time, so is entitled to improve for having had a run despite a 3lb rise in weight today.

Jockey Clifford Lee is 4 from 16 (25% SR) for 19.92pts (+124.5% ROI) over the last 14 days including 4/7 (57.1%) for 28.92pts (+413.1%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter, from which he is 3/4 (75%) for 20.95pts (+523.6%) for trainer David Evans.

The pair are actually 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 49.26pts (+182.44% ROI) this year, including...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 54pts (+300%) on the A/W
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 56.1pts (+330.1%) in handicaps
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 56pts (+622.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 31.35pts (+447.9%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 4/4 (100%) for 38.14pts (+953.5%) over 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs
  • 3/10 (30%) for 22.3pts (+223%) at Class 6
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 22.37pts (+745.8%) with LTO winners

They team up twice today with Sea Fox in the 7.50 race as well as our pick, a 6 yr old mare who is 5 from 24 (20.8% SR) for 8.09pts (+33.7% ROI) in handicaps here at Wolverhampton, including...

  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 10.09pts (+45.9%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 11.09pts (+52.8%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16.09pts (+100.6%) in 2018/19
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 17.09pts (+113.9%) at 8/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 13.15pts (+101.2%) over this 9.5f C&D
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 10.12pts (+77.8%) within a fortnight of her last run
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.12pts (+189%) after a top 2 finish LTO
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 9.43pts (+67.3%) at Class 6 (she's also 2/9 at C5!)
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 9.18pts (+183.6%) after a win LTO...

...whilst in 8-13 runner handicaps over this course and distance at 8/1 and shorter for less than £4,000 prize money, Sunshineandbubbles is 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 19.15pts (+273.6% ROI) since the start of 2018 and these include 3/5 (60%) at Class 6, 3/5 (60%) with a fortnight of her last run and 2 from 2 after a win last time out...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as offered by 888Sport & Bet365 respectively at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 7.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!