Course winners, distance winners, course & distance winners in flat racing
I looked at course, distance, and course and distance National Hunt data a few months back, writes Dave Renham. I will revisit this area now but switch my attention to the flat. I will ignore all-weather racing to write about that in the future. Hence, these findings apply only to UK turf flat racing, and I have looked at the last eight full seasons from 2016 to 2023.
I mentioned last time that there is a perception that course form is necessary; likewise, some see it as a positive if the horse is proven over the distance. In the National Hunt article, previous course winners/distance winners/C&D winners won more often than horses that had not won at the course/distance/C&D. They offered slightly better value despite the market adjusting quite well. Let us see if we see a similar pattern ‘on the level.’
[ez-toc]
Course winners: I am starting with course winners. As we know, courses in the UK are not uniform – the topography for each course varies. Hence, one would assume some horses act better on specific courses than others. I would like to begin by comparing the strike rates of course winners versus horses that have not won at the course (non-course winners). Both win and each way figures are shown: 
Course winners clearly do better from a win and a win-and-placed perspective.
Regarding returns to SP, course winners do slightly better, although the difference between the two is barely 2p in the £. To Betfair SP, the roles are reversed, with non-course winners doing a little better. As we have seen in various past scenarios, the betting market seems good at making the necessary adjustments.
Looking at the non-course winner group first, if we split them into two as follows:
1 - those who have previously run the course
and
2 - those who have not run the course previously,
then we see that those who have not run the course have been slightly more successful in terms of win percentage – 11.3% strike rate compared to 9.9%. In terms of returns, however, they are virtually identical.
One stat worth sharing is that horses with no course wins who have raced 15 or more times at the track in question have won just one race from 81 attempts. Such horses are rare, but it looks like any future qualifier we can put a line through.
Concentrating now on course winners, I would like to start by looking at horses with just one previous course win to their name.
Course Wins = 1
I will split their performances by the number of runs they have had at the track. The reason behind this is simple: you could get some horses that have raced once at the course and hence are one from one, whereas you could get horses that are one from 10 or even one from 20. A horse that has just won once in 20 attempts at the same venue will not scream out as a horse that is particularly suited to the course.
Let me share the win strike rates for different numbers of course run groupings:
The graph clearly shows that one-time course winners with fewer previous course runs win more often. Horses that have won once at the track but raced there 10 or more times have scored less than once in every 14 attempts.
Let me see if the A/E indices correlate with these strike rates:
The graph shows a strong relationship between the A/E indices and the strike rates. Any potential value in one-time course winners tails off once we hit seven or more previous course runs.
Course Wins = 2
I will look at the same idea for horses that have won twice previously at the course. Once again, I’ll start with the win strike rates for different numbers of course run groupings:
We see the same pattern as before. It should also be noted that horses with two-course wins who had previously raced at the course either twice or thrice broke even to BSP (ROI was –0.4%).
Onto the A/E indices now: 
The two to three previous course run group has a very solid A/E index at 0.92. The 10+ group spoils the correlation, but if we look at the complete stats, we can clearly see that the returns to BSP indicate that the fewer previous course runs, the better.
Losses become significant once we get to seven or more previous course runs.
Course Wins = 3+
I will now lump together horses with three or more course wins to give us a decent sample size. This time though, as we have different numbers of previous course wins, it makes sense to share the data using past course win percentages. Hence, a horse with three wins from 5 visits would sit at 60%, a horse with four wins from 25 would sit at 16%, and so on. This time I will go straight to a table showing all key stats in one area:
Horses who have previously won at least two-thirds of their starts at a particular course—the 67 to 100% group—have by far the best overall figures. They have a much higher strike rate and the best A/E index and have made a small profit to BSP.
We have seen the same pattern across all data sets to date: horses with the best course win rates (based on all previous course runs) perform the best.
Before moving on to distance winners, I want to examine the results for individual courses. To do this, I will look at the A/E indices for horses that have won at least once in the relevant course. Here are the courses with the ten highest A/E indices.
*I am using A/E indices regularly in this piece and if you would like to read more about A/E use link -www.geegeez.co.uk/horse-racing-metrics-a-e-iv-prb/
Haydock and Epsom have particularly strong indices. Epsom is a very unique track, and it will come as no surprise to many that it appears so high on the list. Two courses that have not made the cut, which I thought would, are Brighton and Chester. They were joint 14th on the list with an A/E index of 0.87.
Three courses have recorded an A/E index of under 0.80: Yarmouth (0.77), Thirsk (0.75), and Carlisle (0.75). Wetherby also has a figure under 0.80 at 0.71, but the data set is too small to be confident in.
Distance winners: It is time to switch my attention to distance winners. As with course winners, I will start by comparing the strike rates of distance winners versus horses that have not won at a distance (non-distance winners). Both win and each way figures are shown once more:
There is a slight edge to distance winners, but they have virtually identical A/E indices at 0.87 and 0.86, respectively. When looking ‘generally,’ winning previously at a distance does not offer much of an edge in turf flat racing. However, it is always worth digging a little bit deeper.
Let me compare past distance win percentages by grouping all past distance winners. Here are the findings:
Horses who have previously won at least two-thirds of their starts at a particular distance have done best. A very solid-looking A/E index of 0.92 with losses of 2p in the £. This shows a similar pattern to when we combined the 3+ course win data earlier, especially when considering that top group.
Next, I decided to examine whether it makes a difference how recent that last distance win was. This is what the stats told me:
Unfortunately, this data offers little, with the only discernible ‘general’ pattern being that the more recent the win, the more likely a horse is to repeat that win.
After further digging, I discovered the most interesting findings concerning distance winners.
1. Looking at older horses aged 5+, if you restrict this cohort to having won once at a distance on their only start at that distance, they have proved profitable to follow. Hence, if backing ALL 5yos and older with one distance win from one distance start when having their second start at the relevant distance, you would have won 133 races from 862 qualifiers (SR 15.4%) for a BSP profit of £220.34 (ROI +25.6%). These runners have an A/E index of 1.01 and have been profitable for the past five years.
2. Horses with three wins from three starts at the same distance have proved profitable to follow when they have attempted to make it four distance wins out of four. They have won over 28% of the time (53 wins from 188) for a BSP profit of £62.52 (ROI +33.3%). The A/E index stands at an impressive 1.13.
3. Horses aged nine or older that have achieved two distance wins in their careers have proved to be poor investments, regardless of how many distance runs they have had. This group has provided 921 runners, of which only 56 won, hitting a win percentage of just 6.1%. Backing all qualifiers to £1 level stakes would have lost you £216.64, which equates to over 23 pence in the £.
4. Two-year-olds with two or more distance wins have made a profit when attempting the distance again. They have 144 wins from 891 (SR 16.2%) for a BSP profit of £38.23 (ROI +4.3%).
Course and distance (C&D) winners: It is now time to combine the two. I will start by comparing the strike rates of C&D winners versus horses that have not won over C&D (non-C&D winners). Both win and each way figures are shown once more:
These are the highest win percentages we have seen for the ‘winning’ group to date, but only just. The returns to SP have been virtually identical, with a wafer-thin edge to C&D winners, but to BSP, non-C&D winners have proved better value by nearly 6p in the £ (4% loss compared with 10% loss).
Onto the win strike rate in terms of the number of C&D wins. Here are the splits:
The results for 4+ C&D winners are the reverse of the National Hunt findings. In NH races, horses that had won 4 or more times over course and distance scored 15.5% of the time, procuring a healthy return of over 41p in the £. On the flat, this group scored less than 10% of the time, losing over 34p in the £.
It is past C&D win percentages I want to look at next. I am using the same percentage bands/groupings as before:
We see the usual trend of the strike rates dropping as the C&D win percentages drop. Once again, the best overall stats are the group with the highest C&D Win% of 67% or more. It is possible that some value bets could be found within this group.
Individual course C&D data is the next port of call. Courses are listed alphabetically with ‘positive’ A/E indices (0.93 and above) shown in green and ‘negative’ indices (0.80 or lower) shown in blue. Profit/losses have been calculated to BSP less 5% commission:
Just two of the six ‘green’ courses (Chester and Newbury) managed a blind profit to BSP. Generally, though, the takeaway should be to avoid C&D winners from the courses in blue, especially Carlisle, Thirsk, Windsor, and York.
Finally, I want to share the trainers who have performed best with past C&D winners when comparing their performance to their non-C&D winners. Seven trainers are listed in the table below, comparing their win percentages for the two respective groups:
These seven all perform above the norm when it comes to past C&D winners. Five of the seven have produced blind profits to BSP with their C&D winners, with six hitting A/E indices of 1.00 or bigger. Here are the individual figures for these past C&D winners:
There are some solid stats there. It will be interesting to see how these trainers fare in the next few years with their past C&D winners.
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To conclude, previous course winners/distance winners/C&D winners definitely win more often than horses that have not won at the course/distance/C&D. However, evaluating the better value is more complicated. Generally, course/course and distance winners give better results than distance winners.
I will leave you with what I feel are the most interesting findings:
1. Horses who have won once or twice previously at the course, stick to those horses that have raced six or fewer times at the venue.
2. Horses that have won 3 or more times at the course, stick to horses that have won at least two-thirds of their races (67%+).
3. Past winners returning to either Haydock, Epsom, or Ripon, I would take as a positive.
4. Horses that have won at least two-thirds of their races (67%+) at a distance are the best distance group to concentrate on (losses of only 2p in the £).
5. Avoid horses that have won four or more times over C&D.
6. Chester and Newbury are courses where C&D winners generally perform above the norm.
7. Be very wary of past C&D winners at Carlisle, Thirsk, Windsor, or York.
8. The stables of Mick and David Easterby, Charles Hills, Brian Ellison, Mick Appleby, Iain Jardine, Bryan Smart, and Ed Walker have done well with their C&D winners.
The Value of Horses’ Performance: Course, Distance, and C&D Winners Compared
/in Dave Renham/by mattbisognoCourse winners, distance winners, course & distance winners in flat racing
I looked at course, distance, and course and distance National Hunt data a few months back, writes Dave Renham. I will revisit this area now but switch my attention to the flat. I will ignore all-weather racing to write about that in the future. Hence, these findings apply only to UK turf flat racing, and I have looked at the last eight full seasons from 2016 to 2023.
I mentioned last time that there is a perception that course form is necessary; likewise, some see it as a positive if the horse is proven over the distance. In the National Hunt article, previous course winners/distance winners/C&D winners won more often than horses that had not won at the course/distance/C&D. They offered slightly better value despite the market adjusting quite well. Let us see if we see a similar pattern ‘on the level.’
[ez-toc]
Course winners: I am starting with course winners. As we know, courses in the UK are not uniform – the topography for each course varies. Hence, one would assume some horses act better on specific courses than others. I would like to begin by comparing the strike rates of course winners versus horses that have not won at the course (non-course winners). Both win and each way figures are shown:
Course winners clearly do better from a win and a win-and-placed perspective.
Regarding returns to SP, course winners do slightly better, although the difference between the two is barely 2p in the £. To Betfair SP, the roles are reversed, with non-course winners doing a little better. As we have seen in various past scenarios, the betting market seems good at making the necessary adjustments.
Looking at the non-course winner group first, if we split them into two as follows:
1 - those who have previously run the course
and
2 - those who have not run the course previously,
then we see that those who have not run the course have been slightly more successful in terms of win percentage – 11.3% strike rate compared to 9.9%. In terms of returns, however, they are virtually identical.
One stat worth sharing is that horses with no course wins who have raced 15 or more times at the track in question have won just one race from 81 attempts. Such horses are rare, but it looks like any future qualifier we can put a line through.
Concentrating now on course winners, I would like to start by looking at horses with just one previous course win to their name.
Course Wins = 1
I will split their performances by the number of runs they have had at the track. The reason behind this is simple: you could get some horses that have raced once at the course and hence are one from one, whereas you could get horses that are one from 10 or even one from 20. A horse that has just won once in 20 attempts at the same venue will not scream out as a horse that is particularly suited to the course.
Let me share the win strike rates for different numbers of course run groupings:
The graph clearly shows that one-time course winners with fewer previous course runs win more often. Horses that have won once at the track but raced there 10 or more times have scored less than once in every 14 attempts.
Let me see if the A/E indices correlate with these strike rates:
The graph shows a strong relationship between the A/E indices and the strike rates. Any potential value in one-time course winners tails off once we hit seven or more previous course runs.
Course Wins = 2
I will look at the same idea for horses that have won twice previously at the course. Once again, I’ll start with the win strike rates for different numbers of course run groupings:
We see the same pattern as before. It should also be noted that horses with two-course wins who had previously raced at the course either twice or thrice broke even to BSP (ROI was –0.4%).
Onto the A/E indices now:
The two to three previous course run group has a very solid A/E index at 0.92. The 10+ group spoils the correlation, but if we look at the complete stats, we can clearly see that the returns to BSP indicate that the fewer previous course runs, the better.
Losses become significant once we get to seven or more previous course runs.
Course Wins = 3+
I will now lump together horses with three or more course wins to give us a decent sample size. This time though, as we have different numbers of previous course wins, it makes sense to share the data using past course win percentages. Hence, a horse with three wins from 5 visits would sit at 60%, a horse with four wins from 25 would sit at 16%, and so on. This time I will go straight to a table showing all key stats in one area:
Horses who have previously won at least two-thirds of their starts at a particular course—the 67 to 100% group—have by far the best overall figures. They have a much higher strike rate and the best A/E index and have made a small profit to BSP.
We have seen the same pattern across all data sets to date: horses with the best course win rates (based on all previous course runs) perform the best.
Before moving on to distance winners, I want to examine the results for individual courses. To do this, I will look at the A/E indices for horses that have won at least once in the relevant course. Here are the courses with the ten highest A/E indices.
*I am using A/E indices regularly in this piece and if you would like to read more about A/E use link -www.geegeez.co.uk/horse-racing-metrics-a-e-iv-prb/
Three courses have recorded an A/E index of under 0.80: Yarmouth (0.77), Thirsk (0.75), and Carlisle (0.75). Wetherby also has a figure under 0.80 at 0.71, but the data set is too small to be confident in.
Distance winners: It is time to switch my attention to distance winners. As with course winners, I will start by comparing the strike rates of distance winners versus horses that have not won at a distance (non-distance winners). Both win and each way figures are shown once more:
There is a slight edge to distance winners, but they have virtually identical A/E indices at 0.87 and 0.86, respectively. When looking ‘generally,’ winning previously at a distance does not offer much of an edge in turf flat racing. However, it is always worth digging a little bit deeper.
Let me compare past distance win percentages by grouping all past distance winners. Here are the findings:
Horses who have previously won at least two-thirds of their starts at a particular distance have done best. A very solid-looking A/E index of 0.92 with losses of 2p in the £. This shows a similar pattern to when we combined the 3+ course win data earlier, especially when considering that top group.
Next, I decided to examine whether it makes a difference how recent that last distance win was. This is what the stats told me:
Unfortunately, this data offers little, with the only discernible ‘general’ pattern being that the more recent the win, the more likely a horse is to repeat that win.
After further digging, I discovered the most interesting findings concerning distance winners.
1. Looking at older horses aged 5+, if you restrict this cohort to having won once at a distance on their only start at that distance, they have proved profitable to follow. Hence, if backing ALL 5yos and older with one distance win from one distance start when having their second start at the relevant distance, you would have won 133 races from 862 qualifiers (SR 15.4%) for a BSP profit of £220.34 (ROI +25.6%). These runners have an A/E index of 1.01 and have been profitable for the past five years.
2. Horses with three wins from three starts at the same distance have proved profitable to follow when they have attempted to make it four distance wins out of four. They have won over 28% of the time (53 wins from 188) for a BSP profit of £62.52 (ROI +33.3%). The A/E index stands at an impressive 1.13.
3. Horses aged nine or older that have achieved two distance wins in their careers have proved to be poor investments, regardless of how many distance runs they have had. This group has provided 921 runners, of which only 56 won, hitting a win percentage of just 6.1%. Backing all qualifiers to £1 level stakes would have lost you £216.64, which equates to over 23 pence in the £.
4. Two-year-olds with two or more distance wins have made a profit when attempting the distance again. They have 144 wins from 891 (SR 16.2%) for a BSP profit of £38.23 (ROI +4.3%).
Course and distance (C&D) winners: It is now time to combine the two. I will start by comparing the strike rates of C&D winners versus horses that have not won over C&D (non-C&D winners). Both win and each way figures are shown once more:
These are the highest win percentages we have seen for the ‘winning’ group to date, but only just. The returns to SP have been virtually identical, with a wafer-thin edge to C&D winners, but to BSP, non-C&D winners have proved better value by nearly 6p in the £ (4% loss compared with 10% loss).
Onto the win strike rate in terms of the number of C&D wins. Here are the splits:
The results for 4+ C&D winners are the reverse of the National Hunt findings. In NH races, horses that had won 4 or more times over course and distance scored 15.5% of the time, procuring a healthy return of over 41p in the £. On the flat, this group scored less than 10% of the time, losing over 34p in the £.
It is past C&D win percentages I want to look at next. I am using the same percentage bands/groupings as before:
We see the usual trend of the strike rates dropping as the C&D win percentages drop. Once again, the best overall stats are the group with the highest C&D Win% of 67% or more. It is possible that some value bets could be found within this group.
Individual course C&D data is the next port of call. Courses are listed alphabetically with ‘positive’ A/E indices (0.93 and above) shown in green and ‘negative’ indices (0.80 or lower) shown in blue. Profit/losses have been calculated to BSP less 5% commission:
Just two of the six ‘green’ courses (Chester and Newbury) managed a blind profit to BSP. Generally, though, the takeaway should be to avoid C&D winners from the courses in blue, especially Carlisle, Thirsk, Windsor, and York.
Finally, I want to share the trainers who have performed best with past C&D winners when comparing their performance to their non-C&D winners. Seven trainers are listed in the table below, comparing their win percentages for the two respective groups:
These seven all perform above the norm when it comes to past C&D winners. Five of the seven have produced blind profits to BSP with their C&D winners, with six hitting A/E indices of 1.00 or bigger. Here are the individual figures for these past C&D winners:
There are some solid stats there. It will be interesting to see how these trainers fare in the next few years with their past C&D winners.
-------
To conclude, previous course winners/distance winners/C&D winners definitely win more often than horses that have not won at the course/distance/C&D. However, evaluating the better value is more complicated. Generally, course/course and distance winners give better results than distance winners.
I will leave you with what I feel are the most interesting findings:
1. Horses who have won once or twice previously at the course, stick to those horses that have raced six or fewer times at the venue.
2. Horses that have won 3 or more times at the course, stick to horses that have won at least two-thirds of their races (67%+).
3. Past winners returning to either Haydock, Epsom, or Ripon, I would take as a positive.
4. Horses that have won at least two-thirds of their races (67%+) at a distance are the best distance group to concentrate on (losses of only 2p in the £).
5. Avoid horses that have won four or more times over C&D.
6. Chester and Newbury are courses where C&D winners generally perform above the norm.
7. Be very wary of past C&D winners at Carlisle, Thirsk, Windsor, or York.
8. The stables of Mick and David Easterby, Charles Hills, Brian Ellison, Mick Appleby, Iain Jardine, Bryan Smart, and Ed Walker have done well with their C&D winners.
Cuban Thunder is electric in Knavesmire maiden
/in Horseracing News/by DaveMCuban Thunder looks another Royal Ascot-bound juvenile for Amo Racing having won the Frank Whittle Partnership EBFstallions.com Maiden Stakes at York.
The Profitable colt was second on his debut at the Craven meeting to James Tate’s Blue Storm and the third, Hugo Palmer’s Hackman, came out and won well at Chester.
Sent off a heavily backed 5-4 favourite, Dominic Ffrench Davis’ youngster had to battle hard to gain the upper hand but eventually saw off a pair of newcomers in Charlie Appleby’s Impressive Act and Kevin Ryan’s We Never Stop by two lengths and a head.
The winner earned a 25-1 quote for the Coventry Stakes with Paddy Power, a race for which Kevin Stott looks likely to have the choice of a few.
Ffrench Davis said: “He ran a blinder at Newmarket and he’s such a laid back individual he was half-asleep that day.
“Today he was very different and I did think York might do that to him as they have to walk over the track and can get a little bit on their toes. I knew he’d cope with it, but he got a little bit warm.
“He was very professional in the race. Halfway through he switched off and Kevin wondered how well he was going, but he asked him to quicken and he was straight back on the bridle.
“He’ll get seven furlongs and he’s a lovely horse going forward. The team will have to decide about Royal Ascot, but he’d have to be in mind for the Coventry if there was bit of juice in the ground.”
Croupier (7-1) will head for the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot after putting a disappointing effort in the Lincoln well behind him when clinging on to win the Sky Bet Hambleton Handicap.
Simon and Ed Crisford’s four-year-old had got bogged down at Doncaster but was much more at home on ground which was quickening up all the time.
William Buick arrived on the inside travelling well at the two-furlong marker but was all out in the end to hold off Point Lynas and Thirsk Hunt Cup winner Northern Express by a head and a nose.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained favourite Assessment burst through the stalls and had to be withdrawn.
Ed Crisford said: “It’s nice to see him bounce back as we ran him in the Lincoln on terrible ground. We probably shouldn’t have done that, but he’s bounced back today in good style.
“He’s a lovely horse. They went quite hard up front and William sat just off the pace and I thought he rode a very nice race.
“He travelled into it so well. I thought they were coming after him, but he kept finding more.
“We can head to the Hunt Cup now – that’s the plan. It should be a good race for him as a strong pace and a big field should suit.”
The Crisfords doubled up when 3-1 favourite Chesspiece won the Collective Green Energy Handicap under Ryan Moore.
“He did it very well. It was just the third race of his life and we always felt he wanted a step up in trip,” said Ed Crisford.
“We were a little worried about the ground but he went on a fine and he’s got a big future. I’d say the Queen’s Vase would be the plan as an extra two furlongs would suit him well.”
Regional continued trainer Ed Bethell’s excellent run of form with victory in the Lindum York Handicap.
The Middleham-based trainer had enjoyed winners at Nottingham, Haydock and Leicester in the past seven days and Regional was a 5-1 shot to add to his tally on his seasonal reappearance.
Ridden by Callum Rodriguez, the five-year-old was in front racing inside the final furlong and had enough up his sleeve to repel the slow starting but fast finishing Korker by half a length.
Bethell said: “It wasn’t the plan to make the running, but he’s a decent horse and always has been ever since we’ve had him.
“He came third in the Stewards’ Cup and has been unlucky in other handicaps. I’m just delighted for the guys that own him and he’s a fun horse for the summer.
“He ran off 100 in the Stewards’ Cup, I think that’s his mark in handicaps and I would think he will go to 104 or 105 after today. That makes life difficult, but there is the City Walls back here (a Listed race in August) and he’s shown me he’s electric today, which is something I didn’t think he was.
“I thought he would miss the break and finish, but he’s not missed the break, he’s made the running and shown me that he’s quick enough and talented enough to do it.”
State looks Great in Westow stroll
/in Horseracing News/by DaveMGreat State completed a hat-trick in fine style under Oisin Murphy to lift the laurels in the Listed British EBF 40th Anniversary Westow Stakes at York.
Michaela’s Boy set a furious clip under Freddie Larson, having broke smartly from the stalls in the five-furlong contest.
He was still in front with a furlong to race and despite drifting right, he stuck on well but had no answer to the Richard Fahey-trained winner (13-2), who picked up smartly on the stands rail.
The three-year-old grey, who had won at Southwell and Thirsk on his previous two starts, powered home to score by two and a half lengths from Pillow Talk, who pipped the long-time leader for third.
Fahey said: “We had a long discussion whether we kept this horse back for the sprint at Ascot (the Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes) because we do like the horse and it’s not very often you have a horse rated in the 90s that you think is well handicapped.
“He won’t be well handicapped any longer, but I’m delighted for Sheikh Sultan.
“He’s a real dude, very laid back and easy to deal with, he’s a pleasure to train and I’m delighted to have him.
“I was a little bit worried because he’d been running on the all-weather and won on very soft ground last time and it was quick ground today, so I had the excuse ready if he did get beat.
“He’s a talented horse, I’ll talk to Sheikh Sultan and decide where to go.”
Murphy was on board due to a suspension being served by Fahey’s stable jockey, Oisin Orr.
“Oisin Orr would have usually ridden him but unfortunately he’s suspended today, so I stepped in,” said Murphy.
“He’s a horse that I’m sure everyone at Musley Bank is very excited about. He’s an improver and he’s a lovely horse.
“He probably would enjoy more juice in the ground and he’d stay a little bit further as he was on his head in the middle part of the race, but he got going when they slowed down.
“He’s definitely a horse on the up.”
Passenger out of luck on the Knavesmire – but not out of Derby picture
/in Horseracing News/by DaveMPassenger may yet throw his hat into the Derby ring after running with immense promise in defeat in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York.
It was hard to know what the Ulysses colt had achieved in beating a field of fellow newcomers in the Wood Ditton at Newmarket, but it appeared significant connections decided him to supplement him for a Derby trial Sir Michael Stoute had already won on a record seven occasions, with Desert Crown doing the double just last season.
Punters on the Knavesmire ultimately agreed, with Passenger the 9-2 favourite by the time the gates opened. But what followed was a tale of woe for his supporters.
Ridden by Richard Kingscote, the Niarchos family-owned runner appeared to be travelling all over his rivals halfway up the home straight, but he could not find a gap for love nor money.
By the time Passenger did get a run, it was all too late, but there was much to like about the way he stayed on to dead-heat for third with Aidan O’Brien’s Continuous, beaten just a couple of lengths by eventual winner The Foxes.
While brief in his assessment of the performance, Kingscote immediately blamed himself, saying: “It was my fault, I couldn’t get him a run. It’s very frustrating.”
A decision on whether Stoute and the Niarchos family will roll the dice at Epsom on June 3 is made more complicated by the fact Passenger is not entered, meaning the owners will again have to stump up a supplementary fee, with the price for adding him to the Derby set at £85,000.
Paddy Power were impressed enough by his performance to make him an 8-1 shot like The Foxes, though, and connections ultimately have a couple of weeks to mull it over.
Stoute was not on the Knavesmire, but his assistant James Savage said: “It was a bit of a hard-luck story.
“He was in the stalls a long time, he jumped well and did everything brilliantly for a horse having only his second start after running on a straight mile at Newmarket.
“There’s a lot of positives to be taken out of the race. It didn’t happen for Richard up the straight, but that’s just one of those things.”
Interestingly, the only previous horse to be beaten in the Dante and win the Derby was the Stoute-trained Workforce in 2010.
When asked whether Passenger could bid to emulate the subsequent Arc hero, Savage added: “That is going to be a decision for Sir Michael and the Niarchos family. All I can say is that we’ve learnt he’s able to compete at a very high level with the best three-year-olds.
“I’m not so sure experience got him beat because if the gap had come he would have gone through it.
“He’s took a massive step forward from Newmarket to here and we’ll just see how he is.”
Alan Cooper, racing manager for the owners, said: “I’m afraid he didn’t have the clearest of runs, but it was a great improvement from his first start, so let’s get home and see what Sir Michael would like to do.
“He’s shown that he’s a good horse on only his second start. Let’s regroup.
“The family will follow Sir Michael’s advice.”
Splitting The Foxes and the third-placed pair of Passenger and Continuous was John Murphy’s Irish raider White Birch.
Winner of a heavy ground Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown on his seasonal bow, the grey proved he is equally effective on quicker conditions, charging home from the rear to be beaten only a neck.
Another son of Ulysses, White Birch does hold a Derby entry and appears bound for Epsom. He is 20-1 with Coral.
George Murphy, assistant to his father, said: “He ran a super race, quickened up really well and just bumped into one on the day, but we couldn’t be happier with the run.
“I think the horse himself thought he had it won and the winner just came from out of his vision, but we’re delighted.
“He’s a super mover and a big, powerful horse – ground doesn’t seem to bother him.
“We’ll take him home and see how he comes out of it, but I think he’s more entitled to take his chance in the Derby now. If the owners are happy to go there and he comes out of it well, I think he definitely deserves a crack at it.”
The Foxes foils White Birch for Dante glory
/in Horseracing News/by DaveMThe Foxes took a muddling Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York that left the Betfred Derby market in something of a flux.
The Andrew Balding-trained, King Power-owned Churchill colt was given a polished ride by Oisin Murphy, who was happy to sit off a well-contest pace early on from his good draw in stall two.
Liberty Lane, Killybegs Warrior and Dancing Magic helped set a decent clip, with Craven Stakes runner-up The Foxes (6-1) travelling sweetly in mid-division.
Murphy decided to switch left with a furlong to run and he quickened nicely to score by a neck from White Birch, who came from last to first under Shane Foley.
Aidan O’Brien’s Continuous was produced with a promising run but did not quite seem to get home and dead-heated for third with Sir Michael Stoute’s once-raced Passenger, who looked unlucky with jockey Richard Kingscote unable to find a gap when it mattered. He ran on well once finding daylight.
The Foxes was cut to a general 8-1 for Epsom glory.
Balding said: “He did a bit of meandering across the track. He’s a very good horse, it looked a deep Dante today.
“He’s very professional, he was the most beautiful yearling and he’s been a star to train so far.
“You’d have to think Epsom is the next step as long as you take the usual caveats into account, it comes close enough for example, but if he comes out of it well I think we’d have to give it a go.
“The way he’s hit the line there he’d give himself every chance of getting the trip, it didn’t look like he was stopping at the end there to me.
“I think the main thing is he’d give himself every chance of staying because of his demeanour.”
Balding would not be winning the premier Classic out of turn should The Foxes prevail, after recent near-misses with Khalifa Sat and Hoo Ya Mal.
He added: “We’ve gone close in the Derby a few times, but I think he’d be the best chance we’ve had going there as both Hoo Ya Mal (runner-up last year) and Khalifa Sat (second in 2020) were big prices.
“His half-brother Bangkok went there after winning this well fancied, but he ran poorly. We always thought he’d stay, but he was a real 10-furlong horse.
“I think he’ll stay as his dam got a mile and a half well.”
Murphy said: “That was fantastic. I ride for a great stable and this fella was really well prepared at home.
“He’s easy to ride, he relaxes and then he’s able to show that turn of foot. He has all the attributes of a top-quality horse.
“We didn’t go crazy, but rolled along – I hope it’s a good trial for the big races to come. I won this five years ago on Roaring Lion, and on Telecaster, and I hope it’s a good pointer to the Derby.
“I hope he’s a good Derby ride, he relaxes, he’s a beautiful mover and hopefully he’ll stay.
“He gives himself a chance of staying, but he is a fast horse. It’s exciting.”
Eldar Eldarov sets out with hopes of big staying campaign ahead
/in Horseracing News/by DaveMRoger Varian will use Friday’s Boodles Yorkshire Cup as a stepping stone for Eldar Eldarov’s Ascot Gold Cup bid.
Last season’s St Leger winner takes on six rivals in the Group Two contest as he bids to bounce back from a sub-par run in his sole start since, when beating just one rival home in Ascot’s Long Distance Cup.
He won the Queen’s Vase and the Doncaster Classic in both starts over a mile and three-quarters, and returns to that trip on the Knavesmire.
“He’s really doing well of late and has obviously been very good at both tries over this distance,” said Varian.
“We do see him being very effective when he races over Cup distances, but I think a mile and six furlongs is a good distance to start his season off at, and we hope he runs a good, solid race on Friday that means we can then take aim at the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot.
“We’ve got to see how he runs, but we would love to see a positive performance, win or lose. It looks a strong race, but he’s a horse we are looking forward to running and hopefully he can come out of the race giving us the collective opinion he can be a Gold Cup horse.”
In an interesting renewal, 2021 Ebor runner-up Quickthorn returns to the scene of last season’s 14-length Lonsdale Cup success for Hughie Morrison.
His trainer is hoping he can start to garner the plaudits he feels the Nathaniel gelding deserves, with Oisin Murphy retaining the ride as regular partner Tom Marquand is unavailable.
“It was a Flightline-type performance, but he didn’t get the Flightline-type recognition,” said Morrison.
“It might have been a once-in-a-lifetime performance, but I do think it was exceptional, and the disappointment was that neither Stradivarius nor Trueshan ran that day, because we’d have got the credit then.
“Coltrane obviously didn’t run to his best, but Quickthorn absolutely dominated him and I think if you look at the sectionals, he went fast all of the way.
“The ground had gone when he went to Longchamp, and it was the same story at Ascot. The year before he’d had enough by October, and I think that was probably a factor again, too.”
Morrison is keen for the habitual front-runner to replicate that form back down in distance after a somewhat disappointing sixth when taken on early in the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan in March.
“As for Dubai, it wasn’t easy getting him out of a field in December to have him ready for a fast-ground race in Dubai that looked like a Group One three months later,” he added ahead of a race that forms part of the Qipco British Champions Series.
“He ran well, but the Godolphin team knew what they were up to and we weren’t going to get an easy ride. My concern is that I might have left my year behind in Dubai, but I’ve been perfectly happy with him at home.
“Tom Marquand couldn’t commit himself, so I made the decision to go for Oisin at the weekend.
“Oisin knows Quickthorn well and rode him in Dubai, as well as when he won twice two years ago, including at Royal Ascot.”
Broome flashed home to win the Dubai Gold Cup for trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Ryan Moore, beating Godolphin’s reopposing Siskany, who was favourite for the principal staying race on World Cup night.
Siskany was successful at the 2022 Dubai Carnival and third in the Group One Grosser Preis von Bayern in Germany at the end of the season.
The Charlie Appleby-trained five-year-old easily won the Group Three Nad Al Sheba Trophy in February before being nabbed close home by Broome last time.
“Siskany put up a couple of decent performances at Meydan over the winter,” Appleby told www.godolphin.com.
“We felt that the two miles of the Dubai Gold Cup was right at his limit and dropping back to a mile and six furlongs will help. He brings a nice profile into the race and conditions look there to suit, so we are expecting a big run.
Giavellotto, who was promoted to third in the St Leger after being badly hampered two furlongs out, has a bit to find with Broome and Siskany after subsequently finishing ninth in Meydan.
Trainer Marco Botti said: “I felt he was a bit unlucky in the St Leger. He’s a horse with a big stride and he was checked twice. For me he’d have been much closer otherwise.
“His preparation has gone well since Dubai, where things didn’t really pan out for him from a really wide draw and he ended up a bit too far back. It looks quite a competitive race but he stays well and he’s in good form. He’s in good shape and I’m pleased to see that the ground is drying out as I didn’t want to run him on really soft ground.
“He’s not in the Gold Cup, as that trip might stretch him and we don’t see it as the right race for him, but he has plenty of options.”
Last season’s Yorkshire Cup third Tashkhan is the only runner from a year ago to appear again, while Get Shirty completes the line-up.
Free Wind makes class count in Middleton Stakes
/in Horseracing News/by DaveMFree Wind defied a 320-day lay-off to land the Group Two Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies’ Stakes at York under a fine ride from Frankie Dettori.
The John and Thady Gosden-trained four-year-old had been absent since winning the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock in July, but was a warm order for her return in the extended 10-furlong event.
Sent off the 6-5 favourite, she settled well and when asked to lengthen approaching three furlongs to run, she did so effortlessly.
As the run from long-time leader Aristia – carrying a Group One penalty – petered out, Free Wind hit the front soon enough and outsider Rogue Millennium loomed large on the outside under Jack Mitchell.
Though the pair came close when Free Wind edged right, Free Wind kept finding and after a stewards’ inquiry, the result – a half-length victory – stood.
Gosden senior reflected on that Haydock run of Free Wind, which had been a dramatic one.
He said: “She got put through the rails at Haydock. She got up and won despite that near fatal accident and has come back from a nasty injury and 10 months off.
“It was a long way for her to come back, physically and mentally. She’s done that and showed a great attitude, so we couldn’t be more pleased with her.
“She was running way below her trip today. She wasn’t originally in the race, but Mr (George) Strawbridge (owner) is over from America to see Epictetus run in the Dante and we thought we’d supplement Free Wind and run her, too.
“She’s done great as this trip is a bit sharp for her. She’s won a Park Hill over a mile and six furlongs, which is a slightly different ball game.
“We’re very clear that we’re going a mile and a half next time. She’s in the Hardwicke (at Royal Ascot) and that would be a strong possibility at this stage.”
Tom Clover was understandably proud of the effort of the runner-up.
He said: “She ran a lovely race. Jack gave her a lovely ride, he followed Frankie the whole way.
“She takes a step forward with each run. She ran well in France and ran well in the Magnolia at Kempton when she didn’t get a clear run, and she didn’t in France either.
“She’s a really lovely filly, she’s improved from three to four, she was well sourced by the team and it’s great to have a high-class filly of this nature.
“It would be lovely to win a Group race with her this year, and the obvious next two targets would either be the Hoppings (at Newcastle) or the Pretty Polly in Ireland, so we’ll see.”
Queen For You puts lofty reputation on the line at York
/in Horseracing News/by DaveMQueen For You created a deep impression when scoring on debut at Ascot but now faces a real fight to wear the crown at York on Friday, as a stellar cast has assembled for the Oaks Farm Stables Fillies’ Stakes.
John and Thady Gosden’s daughter of Kingman is out of Fallen For You – a Coronation Stakes winner for the Clarehaven yard – and is a half-sister to six-time Group winner Glorious Journey, so is clearly bred to be a smart operator.
The manner of her two-length success, in what appeared a decent maiden, suggests she is on track to become an above-average filly herself.
She is pitched into Listed company for just her second start, a path taken by her training team in the past, including last year when they saddled the runner-up Grande Dame.
Thady Gosden said: “She won nicely first time out at Ascot and was a little green, which she was entitled to be
“She seems to have come forward for the run and although it is a big jump up into Listed company, we’d be hopeful. It is a much more competitive race and a step up in class, but we hope she will do herself justice.”
Equally impressive in her first start was Charlie Appleby’s Silver Lady, who romped the best part of four lengths clear of the opposition at Newmarket last month.
The form of that race was given a timely boost when the third scored at Beverley earlier this week and the daughter of Sea The Stars, who is out of Group One winner Lumiere, looks packed with potential ahead of this contest, better known as the Michael Seely Memorial Fillies’ Stakes.
Appleby said: “Silver Lady was impressive on her debut at Newmarket and came out of the race well.
“We feel that this is the right next step to test her credentials ahead of the summer.”
Sir Michael Stoute won this 10 years ago with Pavlosk, and looks to repeat the dose with Stormy Sea, who built on an encouraging Kempton bow at two when returning to the track at Haydock recently.
A half-sister to the Freemason Lodge handler’s Champion Stakes winner Bay Bridge, she surged over four lengths clear in her first try over a mile at the Lancashire track and now Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle.
“I haven’t ridden her on the track but she clearly did it very well on her return at Haydock and I’d expect this half-sister to Bay Bridge to be featuring here,” the jockey told Betfair.
“That said, it is clearly a very competitive race full of similarly unexposed fillies of potential, so I imagine a few will be fancying their chances.”
Representing Jessica Harrington, Sounds Of Heaven brings smart form from Ireland to the table, while Ralph Beckett’s Juliet Sierra has to concede 5lb to all rivals following her victory in the Group Three Dick Poole Stakes at two. She is the most experienced runner in the field and also the only one to run in Group One company.
“It’s an extremely hot race and the initial plan with Juliet Sierra was to go to the 1000 Guineas and we were just not happy with her scope the week before, so we gave her a quiet week the week of the Guineas,” said Barry Mahon, racing manager for owners Juddmonte.
“To be honest, options are few and far between and she carries a penalty for her Group Three win at Salisbury last year.
“You would prefer to be running a nice filly like her without a penalty and maybe starting off at seven (furlongs) and working up to a mile, but when you go through the programme book, it was hard to find a race.
“We’re starting there, she’s fit and well and a filly we like. I wouldn’t be confident giving a penalty to some of the fillies in that race, like the Appleby and Gosden fillies, but she is a nice filly and we’re hopeful she will run a nice race.”
Owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum is well represented with both Kevin Ryan’s Glenlaurel and Andrew Balding’s Clochette lining up in the yellow silks with black spots, while William Haggas is another double-handed in the contest as he saddles both the reappearing Newmarket two-year-old winner Orchid Bloom and eye-catching Newbury maiden scorer Fakhama.
Connections have high hopes for the latter, with Angus Gold, racing manager for owners Shadwell, saying: “She is nice. She won first time at Newbury. She is very well bred – a beautiful filly. I’ll be disappointed if she doesn’t go on.”
Persian Dreamer heads Amo’s Marygate charge
/in Horseracing News/by DaveMAmo Racing have been in blistering form in two-year-old contests this term and hold an ultra-strong hand in the Clipper EBF Marygate Fillies’ Stakes that kicks off the action at York on Friday.
Two Dominic Ffrench Davis-trained runners feature in this Listed event, with Persian Dreamer leading the charge on the back of a blistering display at Newmarket on debut and Nottingham scorer Treasure Storm providing able support.
Three fillies have done the Marygate/Queen Mary double in the past and this could prove the perfect stepping stone to Royal Ascot for Persian Dreamer, who is not only of warm order for this contest, but also the market leader for the Queen Mary itself.
“We think Persian Dreamer is a very classy filly and I think she has a standout chance in the race,” said Ffrench Davis.
“There are one or two obvious dangers. I think the Richard Hannon horse (Gaiden) will come on a lot for her debut at Windsor, she looked a nice type there and we have a little bit of a line through the form with Always Love You who was fourth that day.
“She was very impressive at Newmarket and has come on well since then. We are looking towards Ascot with her but this is a stepping stone and hopefully she can get the job done.”
He went on: “Treasure Storm has done nothing wrong. She was a little bit green on her first start and then improved on that to win at Nottingham, but we don’t think she is in the same league as Persian Dreamer. We would love it if she could run into a place.”
Karl Burke saddled the one-two in this 12 months ago and saddles two classy prospects as he attempts to repeat the dose.
One of the Spigot Lodge duo is the Middleham Park Racing-owned Got To Love A Grey who created a deep impression when scorching to a six-length success at Nottingham last month.
“She was very impressive at Nottingham, she was drawn out wide there and did everything Sam (James, jockey) asked of her and and was very impressive at the end,” said Middleham Park’s Mike Prince.
“It’s a sharp five furlongs at York and we do think she will step up to six furlongs at some point. It looks a very warm race with some decent fillies in it – I think it’s a very decent renewal and a strong affair.
“It’s interesting because it’s probably the first two-year-old race for the fillies that brings all the form lines together, so it will be interesting to see who is on the right form lines, but she couldn’t have done any more at Nottingham and hopefully goes there with every chance.”
Meanwhile, stablemate Dorothy Lawrence represents last year’s winning owners Clipper Logistics, but has just over three lengths to find with Persian Dreamer from when they met on the Rowley Mile earlier in the campaign.
Ryan Moore takes over in the saddle now and told Betfair: “I think she probably bumped into a good one when beaten at Newmarket last month, but she clearly shaped very well there and hopefully she can improve a good deal for it.”
Rod Milman’s Beenham built on her debut at Bath when accounting for a decent cast at Goodwood recently, while Richard Hannon’s Gaiden bumped into a useful looking rival when runner-up at Windsor and can be expected to take a step forward now.
Similar sentiments also apply to Tierney who finished an encouraging fourth when pitched into the Lily Agnes at Chester for her first start and trainer Hugo Palmer is keen to see if the speedy daughter of Mehmas can better that first racecourse effort on ground which will suit his filly much better this time.
He said: “She’s very much a filly for the here and now, she’s a speedy filly.
“She ran really well in the Lily Agnes taking on unpenalised winners, so it was a really good effort.
“The ground was much too soft for her at Chester, but I thought she ran a really encouraging race, although she will obviously need to step forward on that in stakes company.”
Bellarchi (Grant Tuer), Callianassa (Brian Ellison) and Miss Woo Woo (Robert Cowell) complete the field of 10.
Charlie Appleby’s Modern Games part of deep Lockinge field
/in Horseracing News/by DaveMDual Breeders’ Cup winner Modern Games tops 13 contenders for Saturday’s Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury.
Winner of the Juvenile Turf in 2021 and the Mile last term, Modern Games has also tasted Group One success in France and Canada, but will be shooting for a first British win at the highest level.
The John and Thady Gosden-trained Laurel is one of his main rivals at the Berkshire track, having finished a narrow second in the Sun Chariot last year and opened with an easy Listed verdict on Kempton’s all-weather surface last month.
My Prospero represents William Haggas and he will be having his first run since finishing third in the Champion Stakes at Ascot in the autumn.
Jadoomi finished third on his first attempt at Group One company in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and he returns for Simon and Ed Crisford, while Mutasaabeq arrives on the back of a fine front-running success in the bet365 Mile at Newmarket at the start of the month.
Light Infantry was third in that event for David Simcock and reopposes, as does William Knight’s fourth-placed Checkandchallenge.
Richard Hannon is double-handed with Chindit and Lusail, first and fourth in the Paradise Stakes at Ascot recently.
Berkshire Shadow, Jumby, Triple Time and The Wizard Of Eye complete the line up, with Angel Bleu and Cash the only horses not declared.